The verdict was clear: The Fed must slow down

Sometimes, the truth is hard to say—and even harder to hear. The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced another 25bp cut as widely expected and priced in, but hinted that there will be just about two rate cuts throughout next year. The GDP forecasts for this year and the next were revised higher, the unemployment rate lower, and more importantly, the inflation projections were sensibly higher compared to the September projections. The verdict was clear: the Fed must slow down. Powell said that they’re ‘at or near a point at which it will be appropriate to slow the pace of further adjustments’. Fun fact: they have started cutting rates just three months ago – with a jumbo cut. I think I’ve rarely seen a Fed team acting this erratic.

The market reaction was very aggressive, of course. The US 2-year yield spiked past the 4.35%, the 10-year spiked past 4.50%. The S&P500 dropped nearly 3%, Nasdaq 100’s more rate-sensitive, growth stocks tumbled 3.60% and the Dow Jones smashed more than 2.50%, and extended losses to more than 6% since the beginning of December for the 10th straight session – apparently its longest since 1974. Note that the Dow Jones has been diverging negatively from its tech-heavy peers since the beginning of the month - signalling a renewed concentration on tech stocks. But this time, even the rising stars of the tech couldn’t swim against the tide. Broadcom tumbled nearly 7% yesterday, while Nvidia lost 1.14%. Altogether, the Magnificent 7 stocks gave back a hefty 4.40% after the Fed announcement.

The Fed may have spoiled this year’s Santa rally, as its hawkish shift could trigger a deeper correction across US equity markets—which have enjoyed two stellar years largely thanks to Big Tech. Excluding these giants, the S&P 493 delivered solid, albeit far less impressive, performance. Non-tech sectors have been waiting for Fed rate cuts to claim their share of the pie. Unfortunately, the latest equity rally may fade before it extends to these overlooked corners of the market.

In FX and commodities, the US dollar rallied aggressively across the board, the dollar index jumped more than 1% and gold tipped a toe below the $2600 per ounce and below its 100-DMA. Higher US yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest bearing gold, yet an accelerated selloff and a prolonged weakness in equity markets could drive capital toward the safety of the yellow metal.

The EURUSD tumbled to 1.0344 on the back of a sharp hawkish shift from the Fed, and the bears are now eyeing the parity as their next big target. On the way, the 1.02 - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on post-pandemic rebound - should provide the last major support to the EURUSD.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its policy rate unchanged. Only one out of 9 members voted to hike rates today. The others said they needed more time to assess the risks from Trump policies and the wage outlook. As such, the USDJPY rallied above the 155 level, and is supported by the combination of more hawkish Fed and less hawkish BoJ.

The Bank of England (BoE) is the next major central bank to announce its policy verdict later today. The British policymakers are expected maintain rates unchanged at today’s MPC meeting. The BoE had turned relatively bearish earlier this year, before the Autumn Budget announcement. But the higher government spending plans gave cold feet to Mr Bailey, who immediately stepped back from his ‘more aggressive rate cut’ plans. The problem is, the benefits of higher government spending will probably kick in after the pain of higher taxes to finance it. And the BoE may have to give its support during this period without fuelling inflation – that’s started giving signs of heating up over the past two months. It’s complicated. As per sterling, Cable was hit by a broadly stronger US dollar yesterday. A cautious stance from the BoE may slow down but not reverse the negative trend provided that the UK’s economy – which performed surprisingly well this year – could feel the pinch of higher taxes before it enjoys the benefits of improved growth. The ‘pain before gain’ scenario could keep the sterling bulls on the sidelines.

In energy, the Fed’s hawkish shift dampened an early rebound in oil prices yesterday. The rebound had been supported by lower-than-expected US oil inventories last week, but the barrel of US crude slipped back to $70 per barrel. The Fed’s cautious stance, coupled with a weak demand outlook and ample supply, lent further strength to the bears. We anticipate rangebound trading within the $67–$70 per barrel range.