Nvidia may test $5T market cap after AI hyperscalers' Capex guidance tonight

EU mid-market update: Trump-Xi meeting confirmed for Thurs; Focus on Fed's rate cut and QT decision; Nvidia may test $5T market cap after AI hyperscalers' Capex guidance tonight.

Notes/observations

- European equities open mixed, led by bank earnings; Tech spillover from the US supportive. Fed widely expected to cut 25bps, possibly ending QT.

- US-China trade talks ahead of Trump-Xi meeting, including potential 10% fentanyl tariff cut and export controls: COFCO to buy ~180Kt US soybeans.

- After yesterday’s new barrage of Nvidia announcements almost leading to $5T market cap mark, some analysts point to “poster economy” has emerged where White House and megacap AI firms barrage markets with choreographed multi-billion-dollar announcements that inflate valuations and blur the line between marketing and policy. Ultimately, the poster economy converts narrative velocity into market allocation, but its fragility lies in habituation: if a single overreach punctures belief, momentum could collapse back toward fundamentals.

- The Fed set to cut rates 25bps and may announce a formal end to Quantitative Tightening (QT) at or just after 2:00 p.m. ET today, as signs of funding strain build in money markets and excess cash buffers vanish. QT decisions are usually confirmed in the Implementation Note released alongside the FOMC statement, and this one would likely outline a plan to reinvest into short-term Treasury bills or run small reserve-management operations to keep short-term rates stable without changing overall monetary policy.

- Gold rebounds above $4,000; Oil down with OPEC+ output concerns.

- Notable EU earnings: Deutsche Bank, UBS, Santander, Bank of Ireland, BASF buyback, NVIDIA $1B investment in Nokia, Neste, OMV, Equinor, Adidas, Moncler, GSK raises EPS guidance.

- Asia closed mixed with Nikkei225 outperforming +2.4%. EU indices +0.4% to -0.1%. US futures -0.3% to +0.3%. Gold +1.7%, DXY +0.2%; Commodity: Brent +0.1%, WTI 0.0%; Crypto: BTC -1.5%, ETH -3.2%.

Asia

- Australia Sept CPI Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.1%e; CPI Trimmed Mean Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.6% prior; dims prospect for Nov rate cut.

- Australia Q3 CPI Q/Q: 1.3% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.0%e.

- South Korea Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 7.7% v 3.7% prior.

- US Treasury Sec Bessent: (following talks with Japan Finance Min Katayama) noted Japan's willingness to allow BOJ policy space is key.

- South Korea Oct Business Manufacturing Survey: 92.4 v 93.4 prior; Non-manufacturing Survey: 89.5 v 90.5 prior.

Global conflict/tensions

- Israel PM Netanyahu ordered “forceful” strikes in Gaza following alleged cease-fire.

Americas

- US Senate passed measure to end tariffs on Brazil goods. Voted 52-48 to terminate the national emergency Trump declared in order to impose 50 percent tariffs on most Brazilian goods in July.

- President Trump at APEC Trump said the US had secured commitments totaling over $18T in new investments and expected that figure to reach $21–22T by the end of his second term. He forecasted 4% GDP growth next quarter.

- Chile Central Bank (BccH) left Overnight Rate unchanged at 4.75% (as expected) for its 2nd straight pause under the current phase of the easing cycle.

Energy

- Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: -4.0M v -3.0M prior.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.10% at 576.36, FTSE +0.42% at 9,737.50, DAX -0.03% at 24,276.39, CAC-40 -0.03% at 8,213.78, IBEX-35 -0.10% at 16,068.50, FTSE MIB +0.24% at 43,234.00, SMI +0.03% at 12,351.70, S&P 500 Futures +0.10%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices opened mixed with a negative bias and failed to gain momentum in the early part of the session; markets in a holding pattern ahead of major risk events over the next couple of days; industrials and materials sectors among outperformers; sectors leading the way lower include telecom and financials; reportedly Phoenix Group seeking to raise £1.0B from PE; focus on FOMC rate decision later in the day; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Caterpillar.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Adidas [ADS.DE] -1.5% (final results), BIC [BB.FR] -9.5% (earnings), Next plc [NXT.UK] +5.5% (trading update; raised outlook).

- Financials: Deutsche Bank [DBK.DE] +1.5% (earnings), Santander [SAN.ES] -0.5% (earnings), UBS [UBSG.CH] +0.5% (earnings).

- Healthcare: GSK [GSK.UK] +3.5% (earnings).

- Industrials: BASF [BAS.DE] +3.0% (earnings), Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings [AML.UK] -0.5% (earnings).

- Technology: Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings [AML.UK] -0.5% (earnings), Logitech [LOGN.CH] +4.5% (earnings).

- Telecom: Nokia [NOKIA.FI] -5.5% (NVDA took stake).

Speakers

- German VDMA Engineering Association: If US expands tariff list in Dec then over 50% of its exports could be impacted.

- China President Xi confirmed to meet President Trump on Thurs, Oct 30th at the APEC Summit.

- Pres Trump confirmed that did reach a deal on trade with South Korea.

Currencies/fixed income

- Focus remained on key central bank rate decisions over the next 24 hours.

- USD was steady ahead of the FOMC as Fed seen continuing with rate cuts of 25bps magnitude.

- EUR/USD steady at 1.1630. Most ECB policymakers had reiterated that the Council remained in a "good place" and that risks to the inflation outlook were "two-sided. Key rates seen steady for the nxt year in the region.

- GBP/USD at 1.3230 as more analysts warm up to the potential of another BOE rate cut occurring in Nov.

- USD/JPY hovering around the 152 area ahead of BOJ rate decision.

- 10-year German Bund yield at 2.62%, France 10-year Oat at 3.41% and 10-year Gilt yield at 4.37% 10-year Treasury yield: 3.98%.

Economic data

- (SE) Sweden Sept GDP Indicator M/M: -0.1% v +1.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.6% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Q3 GDP Indicator Q/Q: 1.1% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 1.6%e.

- (NO) Norway Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.5% v +0.1% prior.

- (HU) Hungary Sept Trade Balance: €0.6B v €0.6B prior.

- 04:00 (ES) Spain Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.9%e.

- 04:00 (ES) Spain Sept Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y: 6.2% v 4.7% prior; Retail Sales (unadj) Y/Y: 4.2% v 3.1% prior.

- (CH) Swiss Oct UBS Expectations Survey: -7.7 v -46.4 prior.

- (AT) Austria Oct Manufacturing PMI: 48.8 v 47.6 prior.

- (UK) Sept Net Consumer Credit: £1.5B v £1.5Be; Net Lending: £4.1B v £4.0Be.

- (UK) Sept Mortgage Approvals: 65.9K v 64.0Ke.

- (UK) Sept M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.6% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.4% prior; M4 (ex-IOFCs) 3-month annualized: 4.4% v 4.2% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (IN) India solds total INR190B vs. INR190B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

Looking ahead

- (BR) Brazil Sept Total Federal Debt: No est v 8.145T prior.

- (CO) Colombia Sept Retail Confidence: No est v 26.5 prior; Industrial Confidence: No est v 5.3 prior.

- 05:50 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day USD Liquidity Tender.

- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior.

- 06:00 (IT) Italy Sept Hourly Wages M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.7% prior.

- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing.

- 06:00 (EU) ECB, BOE and SNB hold weekly 7-day USD Liquidity Tender.

- 06:00 (SE) Sweden to sell combined SEK15.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills

- 06:00 (NO) Norway to sell NOK2.0B in 1.75% 2029 bonds.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £3.75B in new 4.125% Mar 2033 Gilts.

- 06:00 (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell combined €4.0B in 6-month bills.

- 06:00 (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell€500M in 3-month bills.

- 06:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell €4.5B in 2.6% Aug 2035 Bunds.

- 06:30 (PL) Poland to sell bonds.

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 24th: No est v -0.3% prior.

- 07:00 (IT) Italy Sept PPI M/M: No est v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior.

- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell OFZ Bonds.

- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 6.757T prior; Outstanding Loans M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 6.8% prior.

- 08:00 (CL) Chile Sept Unemployment Rate: 8.5%e v 8.6% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Sept Preliminary Wholesale Inventories M/M: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Retail Inventories M/M: No est v 0.0% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Sept Advance Goods Trade Balance: -$89.5Be v -$85.5B prior; Exports M/M: No est v -1.3% prior; Imports M/M: No est v -7.0% prior.

- 09:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 09:45 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Interest Rates by 25bps to 2.25%.

- 10:00 (US) Sept Pending Home Sales M/M: 1.5%e v 4.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories.

- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Macklem post rate decision press conference.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 2-Year FRN.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 17-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Sept Real Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 2.8% prior.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Sept Unemployment Rate: No est v 2.1% prior; Aug Real Wages Y/Y: No est v 6.6% prior.

- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Target Range by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%.

- 14:30 (US) Fed Chair Powell post rate decision press conference.

- 20:00 (NZ) New Zealand Oct ANZ Business Confidence: No est v 49.6 prior; Activity Outlook: No est v 43.4 prior.

- 20:30 (AU) Australia Q3 Export Price Index Q/Q: No est v -4.5% prior; Import Price Index Q/Q: No est v -0.8% prior.

- 21:00 (PH) Philippines Sept Trade Balance: -$4.3%e v -$3.5B prior; Exports Y/Y: 11.5%e v 4.6% prior; Imports Y/Y: -2.1%e v -4.9% prior.

- 22:30 (SG) Singapore Sept Unemployment Rate: 2.0%e v 2.1% prior.

- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to keep Policy Rate unchanged at 0.50%.