Morning briefing: Euro is looking bearish towards 1.1400-1.1300

The FOMC kept the interest rates unchanged at 4.50%. The Dollar Index has finally risen past 99 and if sustained, can extend the rise to 101 in the coming sessions. The Euro and EURINR are looking bearish towards 1.14-1.13 and 99 respectively. EURJPY has slipped below 171 and failure to see a bounce back can drag it further to 170-168 as well. USDJPY and USDCNY are holding the respective ranges of 146-149 and 7.14-7.20. A confirmed break past 149/50 and 7.20 can bring the higher levels of 155 and 7.25 into picture. The Aussie is trading near the lower end of its 0.665-0.645 range. Need to see whether the range sustains or the fall gets extended to 0.640-0.635. The Pound needs to hold above 1.32 and rise further, else it can get dragged towards 1.30-1.28 in the medium term. USDINR is trading higher on the NDF. An immediate resistance is coming at 87.75, need to see whether it holds or not.. Watch out for the BOJ meeting, US Personal Income and US PCE data releases scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have risen back well. That keeps alive our view of seeing a rise. Only a break below the immediate support will bring them under pressure for more fall. The US Federal Reserve kept the rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. The central bank said that it would wait and watch the upcoming inflation data to gauge the impact of tariffs before taking their next step. The German yields remain stable. View remains bullish. The yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI remains higher within its sideways range. We will have to wait for the range breakout. Our preference is to see a bullish breakout.

The Dow Jones trades fell after the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged and signaled no decision made for a Sep-25 rate cut. The index can continue to decline towards 44000-43800 before attempting to move up in the medium term. Dax may continue to trade within the 24000-24800 range. Nifty closed above 24800 yesterday but can have scope for a decline to 24600-24400 while below 25000. Nikkei and Shanghai trade higher and could continue to rise while above 40000 and 3550 respectively, targeting 41000-42000 and 3700 in the medium term. BOJ is expected to keep rates unchanged today.

Brent and WTI remain positive and may rise towards $75 and $72 respectively, while Gold stays bullish above $3300 with potential to target $3400–$3450. Silver is under pressure near $37, with further downside possible if it breaks lower. Copper has plunged nearly 20% on tariff news and remains bearish towards $4.20–$4.00. Natural gas is expected to decline further towards $2.70.

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