Morning briefing: Most currencies are trading within a safe range

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Most currencies are trading within a safe range; a break on either side would bring in more directional clarity. Dollar Index, Euro, EURJPY and USDJPY trade within 105-106, 1.06-1.07, 157-158 and 147-149 range respectively which could continue for a few more sessions unless a break on either side is seen. USDCNY can head higher towards 7.35 while above 7.28. Aussie is ranged within 0.6390-0.65 while Pound looks bearish towards 1.22. USDRUB may trade within 93.90-96.00. EURINR may trade above 88 while USDINR could continue moving higher while above 82.80.

The US Treasury yields have come-off on Friday. With limited room on the upside, we can expect a corrective fall going forward within the broader uptrend. The German yields have room to rise more within their current uptrend. Intermediate corrections are possible. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen back sharply from their range support. The range is intact, and the bias is bullish to see an upside breakout of their range.

Dow Jones and Nifty remains bearish for a test of their immediate support. DAX is back into its 15500-16100 range. Nikkei and Shanghai looks bullish while above the support at 32500 and 3100.

Brent appears ranged within $95-92. WTI is inching up gradually towards $92. Gold may trade within 1960-1935 (narrow) and 1965-1920 (Broad) range for some time. Silver looks bullish for the near term. Copper has to sustain above 3.6650-3.65 to avoid the danger of falling further. Natural gas has risen sharply above 2.80 and has scope to rise further towards 3.0.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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