Micron results tonight

EU mid-market update: Bunds borrow Williams's relief while French inflation and record 2027 supply push OATs wider; Iran talks move from sanctions rhetoric to sequencing as December's Brent below $100; DeepSeek/Huawei remove a large part of the CUDA switching cost; Micron results tonight.

Notes/observations

- US-Iran negotiation has moved a step beyond yesterday's public argument over whether sanctions relief was even being offered. Iran Foreign Minister Araqchi received Washington's response through Qatar to the seven-day proposal, and the person briefed on the talks says the main disagreement is sequencing rather than the components; the document is intended to reopen Hormuz and return the sides to an enhanced version of the June MOU. That negotiation is taking place after the physical crude system has already repaired much further than the war headlines suggest: JPMorgan estimates the 10-day average of total regional oil exports at 20.5M bpd, 89% of 2025 levels, with Middle East exports now only 11% below pre-war levels. Aggregate crude availability is recovering faster than the product market: Russia today extended its diesel-export ban through end-October, U.S. distillate inventories fell in the latest API data, and Washington is offering another 40M bbl of SPR crude on loan with the reserve already below 284M bbl. Trump held crunch talks with advisers today on a possible diesel export ban (or other curbs) as midterms approach, after telling a Fox News reporter over the weekend that he is “very seriously” weighing the idea; the White House says no decision has been taken while it continues to explore alternatives including voluntary refiners’ limits and broader access to red-dyed diesel. Even Brent is showing two markets at once: the expiring November contract is around $103 while active December is near $96, so expiry mechanics inflate the apparent backwardation but do not erase the premium attached to an immediate barrel. A seven-day disagreement over who moves first now has more leverage over tanker insurance, diesel, sanctions compliance and abnormal voyage costs than over whether the world physically receives most of the Gulf's crude.

- Fed’s Williams managed to remove a large amount of October from the front end without giving long-duration Treasuries much relief. His “no need for urgency” comment cut October hike pricing from roughly 70% to around 45–50%, pulled the 2Y back to about 4.88–4.89%, yet the 10Y is still 5.23% and the 30Y roughly 5.56% after touching its highest since 2002. His AI comments make that curve response less contradictory than it looks: Williams says firm-level evidence is beginning to show productivity gains and that a sustained productivity acceleration could eventually lift the natural rate of interest. A slower next meeting and a higher medium-term neutral rate can live perfectly comfortably in the same curve. The front end is pricing the Fed's freedom to wait for data; the long end still has to absorb Treasury supply, expensive energy, fiscal borrowing and a private AI investment boom that is itself raising demand for capital. September therefore finishes with the 10Y almost 50bp higher even after one of the Fed's most influential voices removed much of the urgency around the next hike.

- Oracle is getting close to the point where a downgrade would contain little new credit information but could still create a very large market event. S&P already has it at BBB-, one notch above junk, while stressed parts of the capital structure are pricing substantially worse: Jupiter's roughly $18B construction package trades below par, and Oracle long bonds have recently yielded in the 7–8% area as the company finances an AI build-out that pushed RPO to $664B. The technical cliff is not necessarily the first agency that prints BB+. Bloomberg's major corporate indices use the middle rating from Moody's, S&P and Fitch, effectively a two-out-of-three rule, so the more consequential event is the second rating crossing into speculative grade: that is when a credit already trading like crossover debt can actually lose part of its investment-grade buyer base. Oracle is an unusually difficult fallen-angel candidate because it would not be entering high yield after abandoning an investment cycle; it may still need the market to finance it. Jupiter shows why: Oracle can retain the customer and the lease while power/permitting delays keep capital accruing before the facility earns full revenue, with the FT reporting Oracle can remain responsible for carry costs including interest and equity returns even when electricity is unavailable. That turns the $664B backlog from a pure demand asset into a contingent funding schedule—each large OCI contract can require GPUs, buildings, cooling and megawatts before the revenue converts into cash. If a second rating action eventually pushes Oracle out of IG benchmarks while that conversion is still consuming external capital, high yield would not merely have to absorb Oracle's existing debt; it would be asked to become the marginal financier of the next stage of the AI build-out.

- DeepSeek and Huawei have attacked Nvidia's China moat at the software layer that normally survives much longer than a chip cycle. DeepSeek has open-sourced the Ascend backend for TileLang together with matching compute and communication libraries, and the released stack maps training operators that previously ran on Nvidia onto Huawei equivalents; DeepSeek and Huawei have also optimized a supernode built around 128 Ascend 950 processors. That still does not establish Nvidia-equivalent performance, yields, networking stability or multi-thousand-chip training reliability, and those are enormous qualifications. But a Chinese lab can increasingly preserve its higher-level training code while changing the accelerator underneath it instead of funding a second engineering organisation to rewrite CUDA-dependent kernels. Huawei can then use supernode scale and topology to compensate for some of the remaining per-chip deficit without also paying the full software-porting penalty. The export-control bottleneck consequently moves further toward HBM, packaging, interconnect and raw silicon performance; the accumulated developer code that made CUDA unusually difficult to leave is becoming less binding inside China before Ascend has to prove outright benchmark parity.

- OpenAI's annualised recurring revenue is now approaching $70B just as the company makes raw model intelligence markedly cheaper and builds new meters around everything that happens after the model answers. Enterprise sales have reportedly doubled since July, overall revenue has risen more than 70% since the start of Q3 and ChatGPT has reached roughly 1.2B weekly users; DevDay then put Dots, Space, UltraFast and Sign in with ChatGPT on top of that distribution. GPT-6.1 Sol costs roughly one-fifth as much as Astra, while UltraFast sells eight times the inference speed for six times the price and the coming Decisions API targets sub-second computer-use interactions. Dots can sit across more than 4,000 connected apps and continue working when the user is gone, while Sign in with ChatGPT allows a user's existing plan allowance to follow them into partner software. A Sol token can therefore get cheaper while persistent execution, priority latency and cross-application entitlement become more valuable things to invoice. The more capable Astra release remains shelved, but existing Astra is already powering Dots behind explicit application/computer boundaries and approval rules; the safety constraint is being designed into permissions and execution architecture while the agent product moves ahead. That is a much bigger commercial change than another benchmark win: ChatGPT is starting to look like an identity plus compute entitlement that third-party software can build around rather than a destination users have to remain inside.

- Tesla quietly arranged $30B of bank liquidity overnight and, unusually, says it currently has no intention of using it this year. The package contains a $20B delayed-draw term loan, an $8B five-year revolver and a $2B 364-day revolver; there were no borrowings outstanding as of September 29. That arrives as 2026 capex is expected above $25B versus $8.53B in 2025, with much of the spending directed at AI compute, solar manufacturing and a semiconductor fabrication project with SpaceX, while LSEG consensus has Tesla producing roughly -$9.8B of free cash flow this year. So Tesla has not financed the capex with $30B of new debt; it has paid banks to guarantee that the liquidity will be there if internal cash generation or capital markets become less cooperative. Oracle/Jupiter has already converted AI execution risk into bonds that trade every day; Tesla is keeping a very large piece of its financing optionality on bank balance sheets before drawing it. A $20B delayed-draw facility is particularly valuable when the risk-free rate is above 5% because Tesla can choose the financing window rather than discovering during a stressed bond market that it has no choice.

- PJM, the largest U.S. grid operator, has started its annual review of Large-Load adjustments under new standards intended to determine whether projects in utility forecasts are actually likely to materialise, with requests coming from 12 utilities including Dominion, NOVEC, Duke and FirstEnergy and an independent data-center-demand review due from Charles River Associates. At the same time, PJM's timetable calls for its one-off Reliability Backstop Procurement to run from September 30 to October 21 after the latest capacity auction left a 6,831MW shortfall for 2028/29; eligible new supply can receive commitments of up to 15 years, with PJM proposing a maximum willingness to pay of $555/MW-day. A speculative 500MW data center left in the forecast is no longer an innocent spreadsheet assumption if the grid then signs a 15-year generation commitment to serve it. PJM's proposed Large Load Registry and Interim Resource Adequacy Service therefore push developers toward proving the load, bringing their own new generation or accepting a different level of service rather than automatically socialising every announced gigawatt through the capacity market. AI developers have spent two years competing for “time to power”; utilities are now starting to ask who should financially stand behind the demand forecast before everyone else pays to build against it.

- France and Germany handed the ECB opposite halves of an unpleasant data mix within minutes of each other. French HICP jumped to 3.4% y/y versus 3.1% expected and 2.6% previously, with domestic CPI at 3.0%; energy led the acceleration but services and food were also firmer. German seasonally adjusted unemployment meanwhile rose 12K versus +1K expected, taking the unemployed total to 3.01M while the rate held at 6.4%, and the normal September labour-market improvement was unusually weak. France is receiving that inflation with its 10Y spread over Germany already tested 120bps, the widest since 2012, and ahead of Oct 6’s France 2027 budget submission deadline, so another common ECB tightening impulse no longer lands on common sovereign financing conditions. The UK went the other direction on growth: Q2 GDP was revised to 0.5% from 0.4%, real disposable income per head rose 1.0%, and annual business-investment growth was radically revised to 5.2% from 0.8%, while the current-account deficit excluding precious metals narrowed to just 1.4% of GDP. Europe therefore reaches quarter-end with weaker German employment, hotter French inflation and unexpectedly stronger UK investment at the same time the sovereign curve has already done a substantial amount of central-bank tightening by itself.

- As Golden Week starts tomorrow, China's PMI recovery is better in the factory than in the order book. Official manufacturing PMI moved back above 50 to 50.1, but production jumped 1.3 points to 51.7 while new orders actually slipped 0.1 to 50.5 and manufacturing employment remained contractionary at 48.4. Non-manufacturing activity recovered to 50.2, yet its new-orders index was only 46.5; private services PMI at 51.6 looks healthier but does not remove that demand gap. Beijing's policy package makes the imbalance unusually visible: the PBOC has cut the PSL rate 25bp to 1.5% and widened cheap funding to power grids, computing, communications and other infrastructure, while simultaneously adding CNY200B of tech relending and introducing a nationwide 1ppt mortgage-interest subsidy for qualifying first-home buyers from October 1. One channel is making it cheaper to build additional productive and digital capacity; the other is explicitly paying households to borrow against housing demand. If the mortgage leg responds slowly while industrial credit responds quickly, more domestic capacity arrives before the domestic buyer does. DeepSeek/Huawei are an extreme technology example of that supply-side acceleration, but the same arithmetic eventually appears in China's export volumes and trade friction.

- A 640MW AI campus in West Java has been stopped eight days after its groundbreaking because the permits and environmental assessment were not finished. Singapore's BDx broke ground on the Jatiluhur project on September 22; West Java Governor Dedi Mulyadi has now ordered construction halted until the required permits are issued and the environmental-impact process is complete. The timing is almost a miniature version of the problem showing up in U.S. AI infrastructure credit: developers announce hundreds of megawatts as though capacity has already become an asset, while the thing that determines the energisation date still sits with a regulator, grid operator or local authority. Indonesia wants its data-centre market to more than double from $2.8B in 2025 to roughly $6.1B by 2031, but the political constraint is arriving before the electrical one; Mulyadi specifically cited concern around water shortages associated with data centres. Jupiter showed lenders discovering that distinction through project debt; Jatiluhur shows it one stage earlier, before the concrete is properly allowed to go into the ground.

- Cross-asset: Williams has taken some meeting risk out without producing much of a duration rally: UST 2Y is around 4.88%, 10Y 5.23% and 30Y 5.56%, with October hike pricing now roughly mid-40s/50% versus ~70% before his remarks; the 10Y is still ending September almost 50bp higher and JGB 10Y has risen about 42bp over Q3 to around 3.1%. Bund yields are easing for a second session from this week's ~3.63% high, but France/Germany remains above 115bp. DXY is around 101.2, EUR/USD roughly 1.13–1.134, sterling firmer after GDP near 1.328 and USD/JPY around 156.5–157 as traders remain wary of renewed intervention. Brent Nov is around $103.4 on expiry day versus Dec near $96.4, WTI ~$89.6; spot gold is around $4,195 after recovering from Monday's rout, still down sharply for September. STOXX 600 is +0.7% around 643 but is headed for its first monthly fall in six; DAX/FTSE are also higher this morning, S&P futures roughly +0.2% and Nasdaq futures modestly positive. Nikkei finished roughly +2%, while CSI300 and Shanghai recovered only ~0.2–0.3% and the CSI300 is still down about 13% for the quarter. BTC is back around $84K. The striking September split survives the Williams repricing: the risk-free curve has moved into a materially higher regime while equities continue to fund, value and announce projects whose cash flows lie years beyond that curve.

- Asia closed mixed with Nikkei225 outperforming +2.2%. EU indices +0.1-0.6%. US futures +0.1-0.3%. Gold +0.3%, DXY -0.2%; Commodity: Brent +1.0%, WTI +0.8%; Crypto: BTC -1.3%, ETH -1.6%.

Asia

– China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7351 v 6.7411 prior [strongest CNY fix since Feb 2nd, 2023].

– BNP Paribas analysts: China’s expansion of access to its bond repo market improves capital efficiency, makes Chinese bonds more attractive, and helps lift foreign ownership toward a long-term target of 5-7%.

– DeepSeek Publicly releases open-source software it created with Huawei to program AI chips; Includes TileLang (China's alternative to Nvidia's CUDA) - press [**Note: every Chinese training operator that previously ran only on Nvidia now has a high-performance Ascend equivalent].

– BOJ cuts amount of Oct-Dec bond purchases as planned; To reduce monthly bond purchases by ¥200B in Q3 - press.

– South Korea Finance Ministry: South Korea closely monitoring government bond market; Reiterates South Korea may conduct emergency buybacks if rates rise too much - Statement.

– Philippine Central Bank (BSP): Sept inflation likely within range between 6.4% to 7.4% (vs. 6.1% prior).

– Thailand revises manufacturing index to capture new industries - US financial press.

Europe

– France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €340B in bonds in 2027 (record) vs €310B in 2026.

– OAT French/German 10-year bond yield spread widens to 120bps for first time since 2012.

– Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) on Q4 issuance: Cuts 2026 bond issuance target to €22.5B vs €24.0B prior.

– UK govt spokesperson: Labour party not ruling out election pledge to rejoin the EU; Not ruling out tax increases to fund care program.

– Russia budget documents show plans to cut welfare, education, and healthcare in 2027 - press.

– Vestas Awarded two firm orders totaling 614 MW in Western Australia.

– Sweden NIER Think Tank updates Economic Forecasts.

Americas

– OpenAI Unveils 'dots', always on autonomous agents across Pro paid tiers; Launches ChatGPT 6.1 Sol, at one fifth the price of Astra - DevDay keynote.

– OpenAI Reportedly targeting $30B in fresh funding at $1.4T valuation - press.

– SpaceX CEO Musk: SpaceX is aiming together with Tesla to do 200GW of solar production annually; Targeting at least 300BW annually of AI compute - comments from Washington event.

– US Navy plans to order 30 Medium Unmanned Surface Vessels with an expected avg cost of $40M per MUSV - press.

Conflict/tensions

– Iran Foreign Min Araqchi said to have received US feedback to 7-day proposal which he will discuss in Iran on Wed, Sept 30th; Main disagreements are on sequencing, not on elements - press.

– Polish Army: Ground-based air defense systems and radar reconnaissance have reached a state of readiness.

– Reportedly Israel PM Netanyahu is holding consultations over flydubai flight from the UAE to Israel that was diverted from its path - press.

Trade/energy

– OPEC+ Oil producers set to keep output targets steady at Sunday meeting – Press.

– White House said to have urged EU to draw down diesel emergency inventories to help lower global prices - press.

– Reportedly President Trump plans to unveil $54B Alaska LNG plan - press.

– Canada said to have a backup plan in case US President Trump bans diesel exports; cites comments from Canada's Energy Minister - US financial press.

– White House holds talks on diesel export ban as Midterms near - FT.

– Russia extends diesel export ban through October (as expected) - Russian press.

– German govt has instructed energy firm SEFE to store gas - press.

– OPEC+ likely to stick with plan for steady quotas (consistent with previous reporting) - delegates.

– Japan, US, Europe to agree to a steel monitoring framework at the ministerial meeting of the international conference GFSEC, Wisconsin, USA - Yomiuri.

– European nations reportedly agreed on rules for pesticide use in imports - press.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

[FTSE +0.43% at 10,682.76, DAX +0.18% at 25,421.78, CAC-40 -0.17% at 8,022.29, IBEX-35 +0.61% at 19,635.82, FTSE MIB +0.27% at 51,943.50, SMI +0.27% at 13,949.50, S&P 500 Futures +0.17%].

Market focal points/keythemes: European equities posted a mixed session on Wednesday, with the FTSE 100 rising 0.43%, the IBEX 35 advancing 0.61%, the FTSE MIB up 0.27% and the DAX gaining 0.18%, while the CAC 40 slipped 0.17% and the Euro Stoxx 50 edged just 0.11% higher, as investors positioned ahead of a dense slate of European and U.S. macroeconomic releases. Technology and semiconductor shares provided the primary lift after President Trump announced that leading tech executives had agreed to voluntary AI safety standards and reiterated explicit support for rapid data-center expansion, easing concerns over regulatory bottlenecks and capital-expenditure cuts following recent OpenAI training pauses. The most notable individual movers were Soitec, surging 9.0%, X-FAB up 7.5% and Siltronic gaining 7.0% on renewed AI-infrastructure optimism, alongside Greggs rising 7.5% and Saga climbing 7.0% on strong trading updates, against Tullow Oil’s 47.0% collapse on losing Ghana tax dispute and Future’s 10.0% drop after a pre-close statement failed to allay organic-revenue concerns. The rebound occurred against a backdrop of a near-2% monthly decline for the STOXX 600—its first in six months—driven by historic sovereign-yield spikes, lingering energy-cost shocks and AI developmental friction, with attention now fixed on German national CPI data plus the U.S. PCE inflation print.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: Greggs [GRG.UK] +7.5% (Q3 company-managed shop LFL growth accelerated to 3.4% from 2.1% in H1, prompting a modest upgrade to the 2026 profit outlook), Saga [SAGA.UK] +7.0% (H1 underlying pretax profit jumped 98% to £46.6m; FY profit guided to £65–70m and medium-term profit and leverage targets are now expected ahead of plan), Future [FUTR.UK] -10.0% (pre-close statement failed to dispel concerns over falling organic revenue and weaker earnings momentum), Puma [PUM.DE] -2.0% (sporting-goods dispersion and continued concern over the pace of its turnaround leave the stock lagging a stronger Adidas).

Technology: Soitec [SOI.FR] +9.0%, X-FAB [XFAB.FR] +7.5%, Siltronic [WAF.DE] +7.0%, SUSS MicroTec [SMHN.DE] +5.5%, STMicroelectronics [STM.FR] +2.5% (European semiconductor rally follows renewed overnight AI-infrastructure optimism, Nvidia's record buyback and Anthropic's IPO ambitions), IONOS Group [IOS.DE] -3.0% (high-duration internet and software shares remain pressured by elevated sovereign yields).

Telecom: Zegona Communications [ZEG.UK] +2.5% (EU proposal may give telecom operators longer to replace high-risk network suppliers, easing near-term capex and execution risk at Vodafone Spain).

Energy: Tullow Oil [TLW.UK] -47.0% (Ghana tax dispute lose; investors also price refinancing-related equity dilution and persistent leverage concerns following the half-year report).

Industrials / Defence: Rexel [RXL.FR] +3.5%, Schneider Electric [SU.FR] +2.0% (AI-data-centre optimism lifts electrical-distribution, power-management and electrification exposures), Babcock International [BAB.UK] +1.0% (secured a two-month extension to its UK Ministry of Defence maritime-support agreement while negotiations continue on a long-term successor contract), Hapag-Lloyd [HLAG.DE] -2.0% (shipping shares lag as elevated bunker costs and a softer container-rate outlook weigh).

Financials: CMC Markets [CMCX.UK] +3.5% (multi-decade-high sovereign yields and elevated bond-market volatility support expectations for stronger client trading activity), Quilter [QLT.UK] +1.5% (JPMorgan reinitiated coverage at Overweight with a 227p price target), Commerzbank [CBK.DE] -1.5% (renewed uncertainty around UniCredit's takeover campaign and potential supervisory-board challenge weighs).

Speakers

– (UK) PM Burnham: Cutting welfare bill will let UK meet defense goals.

– (US) USTR Greer: Will take trade deal tariff caps into consideration in determining any tariffs in Section 301 excess capacity investigation.

– (US) FHFA Dir Pulte: AI will lower costs in title, mortgage insurance - post on X.

– (US) FHFA Dir Pulte: Credit bureaus need to compete; Credit scoring abuses are being taken care of.

– (US) President Trump: AI meeting very productive; What we discussed will make the world safer; Thinking of forming a committee of 10 people to watch over AI; Will name my AI czar in the next 3 or 4 days.

– (US) Fed's Williams (moderate, voter): I'm one of the more optimistic 'dots' on the plot.

– (US) Fed's Williams (moderate, voter): No need for urgency after Sep hike; See inflation slowing to just above 2% next year.

– (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Dep Gov Gravelle: BOC pushing back date when it might start purchases of govt of Canada bonds to 2028.

– (US) Fed's Musalem (non-voter, hawk): Fed framework does not promise a specific interest rate path; A clear framework helps policy transmission.

– (US) Fed's Goolsbee (non-voter in 2026; voter in 2027): Business margins are high but starting to thin.

– (US) Fed's Barr (voter): Expects GDP growth to pick up a bit in second-half of year from 2% pace in first half.

– (UK) BOE’s Mann: Inflation staying above 2% is a credibility problem.

– (EU) EU Energy Commissioner Jorgensen: See no immediate risk to energy supplies in Europe ahead of the winter; Have discussed possible oil release with IEA's Birol, but still need to talk to member states.

– (UK) BOE's Taylor: Policy should not mechanically react to movements in energy prices if those movements remain primarily relative price shocks.

– (EU) ECB's Demarco (Malta, dove): another energy shock could be a reason to act again in Oct; 25 bps hike in Oct or Dec would not surprise markets; Have to be careful not to raise rates too rapidly - Econostream interview.

– (US) Pres Trump: I will sign a 'powerful' order on AI; Spoke to China Pres Xi about it and he loves it.

Economic data

– (IT) Italy Sept preliminary CPI M/M: 0.7% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 4.2% V 3.7%E.

– (IS) Iceland Aug Final Trade Balance (ISK): -63.1B v -63.1B prelim.

– (GR) Greece Aug PPI Y/Y: 14.9% v 11.8% prior.

– (GR) Greece July Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 6.6% v 4.2% prior.

– (GR) Greece Aug Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.9% prior.

– HK) Hong Kong Aug M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.9% v 5.5% prior.

– (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Oct Net FX transactions (NOK): 176M v 176M prior.

– (ES) Spain July Current Account Balance: €5.9B v €2.4B prior.

– (DE) Germany Sept CPI North Rhine-Westphalia M/M: 0.6% V 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.3% V 2.9% prior.

– (IT) Italy Sept Consumer Confidence: 91.2 v 94.3e.

– (CZ) Czech Aug M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.0% prior.

– (DE) Various German States Sept CPI Readings.

– (CH) Swiss Sept Expectations Survey: 2.6 v 12.1 prior.

– (DE) Germany Sept net unemployment change: +12.0K V +0.5KE; claims rate: 6.4% V 6.4%E.

– (PL) Poland Sept Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.0%e.

– (TR) Turkey Aug Trade Balance: -$5.2B v -$5.2Be.

– (TR) Turkey Aug Unemployment Rate: 7.8% v 8.1% prior.

– (TH) Thailand Aug Current Account Balance: $2.4B v -$0.2Be.

– (CH) Swiss Q2 Foreign Exchange Transactions (CHF): 1.44B v 3.94B prior.

– (CZ) Czech Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.4% prelim; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.9% prelim.

– (FR) France Sept preliminary CPI M/M: -0.3% V -0.5%E; Y/Y: 3.0% V 2.8%E.

– (FR) France Aug Consumer Spending M/M: -0.5% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.3% prior.

– (FR) France Aug PPI M/M: 1.0% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.8% v 3.5% prior.

– (HU) Hungary Aug Trade Balance: -€0.5B v €0.3Be.

– (HU) Hungary Aug PPI M/M: 2.9% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 4.8% v 1.0% prior.

– (DE) Germany Aug Retail Sales M/M: 1.3% V 2.0%E; Y/Y: -0.4% V -0.5%E.

– (DE) Germany Aug Import Price Index M/M: 1.0% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 8.3% v 7.9%e.

– (ZA) South Africa Aug M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.9% v 8.6% prior.

– (DK) Denmark Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: 5.7% v 4.6% prelim.

– (SE) Sweden July Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.4% prior.

– (JP) Japan Aug Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 64.7% v 64.7% prelim.

– (SE) Sweden Aug Retail Sales M/M: 0.8% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 6.9% v 6.5% prior.

– (DK) Denmark Aug Unemployment Rate: 2.7% v 2.7% prior.

– (UK) Q2 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.4%E ; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.2%E.

– (UK) Q2 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: -£19.9B V -£25.1BE.

– (JP) Japan Aug Annualized Housing Starts: 753K v 766Ke; Y/Y: 6.1% v 7.0%e.

– (FI) Finland Aug Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 3.7% v 2.0% prior.

– (FI) Finland Aug GDP Indicator Y/Y: 2.3% v 1.4% prior.

– (CN) China Sept RATINGDOG Manufacturing PMI: 52.1 V 51.7E (11th month of expansion).

– (CN) China Sept (GOVT OFFICIAL) Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 V 50.1E (1st month of expansion after 2nd month of contraction).

– (AU) Australia AUG CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 4.0% V 4.1%E.

– (PH) Philippines Aug Trade Balance: +$3.9B v -$5.4Be.

– (UK) UK Aug Vehicle Manufacturing Y/Y: 40.9K, +5.7% - SMMT [update].

– (NZ) New Zealand Sept ANZ Business Confidence: 51.9 v 53.7 prior.

– (JP) Japan Aug preliminary industrial production M/M: -1.7% V +1.3%E; Y/Y: 3.4% V 6.8%E.

– (JP) Japan Aug Retail Sales M/M: -1.2% V -1.1%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 3.2%E.

– (UK) Sept Lloyds Business Barometer: 41% v 53% prior [marking a 17th month low].

Fixed income issuance

– (SE) Sweden sells SEK B vs. SEK5.0B indicated in 2.25% Jun 2032 bonds; Avg Yield: 3.009% v 2.333% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.50x v 2.70x prior.

– (IN) India sells total INR240B vs. INR240B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

– (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) net financing needs for 2026 remain at €15B - press.

– (DK) Denmark sells total DKK780M in 3-month and 6-month bills.

– (DE) Germany to sell €6.0B in Dec 2028 bonds on Oct 6th.

– (JP) Japan sells ¥2.8T VS. ¥2.8T indicated in 2-year JGB bonds; avg yield: 1.9640% v 1.7080% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.89x v 2.97x prior.

– (FR) France to sell record €340B in bonds in 2027.

Looking ahead

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Aug PPI M/M: No est v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.7% prior.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €5.5B in 3.0% Aug 2036 Bunds.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of next bond auction (held on Tuesdays).

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Sept Unemployment Rate: No est v % prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Sept Preliminary CPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.3% prior; CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.6% prior.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Aug Retail Sales M/M: No est v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior.

- 06:30 (IN) India Aug YTD Fiscal Deficit (INR): No est v 4.551T prior.

- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell one tranche of OFZ Bonds.

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Sept 25th: No est v -1.5% prior.

- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Aug Nominal (overall) Budget Balance (BRL): No est v 97.6B prior; Primary Budget Balance: No est v 1.4B prior; Net Debt % GDP: No est v 69.1% prior.

- 08:00 (DE) Germany Sept Preliminary CPI M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.9% prior.

- 08:00 (DE) Germany Sept Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.9% prior.

- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Aug Trade Balance (ZAR): No est v 20.1B prior.

- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Aug Monthly Budget Balance (ZAR): No est v -161.6B prior.

- 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug Unemployment Rate: No est v 9.5% prior.

- 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 2.2% prior; Commercial Activity Y/Y: No est v -0.2% prior.

- 08:00 (CL) Chile Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v -5.1% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: No est v -4.9% prior; Total Copper Production: No est v 403.4K tons prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:15 (US) Sept Monthly ADP Employment Change: No est v +38K prior.

- 08:30 (US) Q2 Final GDP Annualized Q/Q: No est v 1.5% prelim; Personal Consumption: No est v 3.2% prelim.

- 08:30 (US) Q2 Final GDP Price Index: No est v 6.2% prelim; Core PCE Price Index: No est v 3.4% prelim.

- 08:30 (US) Aug Personal Income: No est v 0.4% prior; Personal Spending: No est v 0.2% prior; Real Personal Spending (PCE): No est v 0.0% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Aug PCE Price Index M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.7% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Aug Core PCE Price Index M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.3% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Aug Advance Goods Trade Balance: No est v -$118.8B prior; Exports M/M: No est v -2.9% prior; Imports M/M: No est v +3.7% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Aug Preliminary Wholesale Inventories M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Retail Inventories M/M: No est v 0.7% prior.

- 09:00 (RU) Russia Q2 Final Current Account Balance: No est v $21.4B prelim.

- 09:45 (US) Sept Chicago Purchase Managers Index (PMI): No est v 47.1 prior.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories.

- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 7.521T prior.

- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Aug National Unemployment Rate: No est v 8.1% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: No est v 8.5% prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 17-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Aug Real Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 5.3% prior.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Aug Unemployment Rate: No est v 2.3% prior; July Real Wages Y/Y: No est v 3.4% prior.

- 14:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision.

- 17:45 (NZ) New Zealand Aug Building Permits M/M: No est v -4.3% prior.

- 19:00 (AU) Australia Sept Final Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.3 prelim.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan BOJ Summary of Opinions (Sept. MPM).

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Q3 Tankan Large Manufacturing Index: No est v 22.0 prior; Large Manufacturing Outlook: No est v 17.0 prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Q3 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 37.0 prior; Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook: No est v 28.0 prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Q3 Tankan Large All Industry Capex Estimate FY: No est v 11.5% prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Q3 Tankan Small Manufacturing Index: No est v 9.0 prior; Small Manufacturing Outlook: No est v 2.0 prior.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Q3 Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 15.0 prior; Small Non-Manufacturing Outlook: No est v 8.0 prior.

- 20:00 (KR) South Korea Sept Trade Balance: No est v $34.7B prior; Exports Y/Y: No est v 68.7% prior; Imports Y/Y: No est v 22.5% prior.

- 20:01 (IE) Ireland Sept Manufacturing PMI: No est v 55.4 prior.

- 20:30 (JP) Japan Sept Final Manufacturing PMI: No est v 54.1 prelim.

- 20:30 (KR) South Korea Sept Manufacturing PMI: No est v 52.3 prior.

- 20:30 (TW) Taiwan Sept Manufacturing PMI: No est v 54.7 prior.

- 20:30 (ID) Indonesia Sept Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.8 prior.

- 20:30 (MY) Malaysia Sept Manufacturing PMI: No est v 50.2 prior.

- 20:30 (PH) Philippines Sept Manufacturing PMI: No est v 54.9 prior.

- 20:30 (TH) Thailand Sept Manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.8 prior.

- 20:30 (VN) Vietnam Sept Manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.3 prior.

- 20:30 (SG) Singapore Q3 Preliminary URA Private Home Prices Q/Q: No est v 0.5% prior.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia RBA Financial Stability Review.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia Aug Trade Balance (A$): No est v 1.9B prior; Exports M/M: No est v -3.3% prior; Imports M/M: No est v -2.5% prior.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia Aug Job Vacancies Q/Q: No est v -2.1% prior.