|

Gold, Chart of Week: XAU/USD shorts about to get squeezed?

  • Gold is setting up to offer something for both the bulls and bears.
  • Will the US dollar continue lower and squeeze gold shorts?

The gold price has been stuck in a sideways range from both a daily and hourly perspective as investors covered short positions from near to $1,800, forcing the price back to $1,880 on three pushes before a retest of $1,800 again.

XAU/USD will open the new week after closing at $1,827 with no clear bias one way or the other:

Gold, daily chart

The price is in the middle of the range where it meets the potential resistance of the neckline of an M-formation which could lead to a downside continuation of the engulfing sell-off. What is apparent, all three prior sessions on Friday were consolidation days, coiling up to what could be a breakout start to the week. 

Gold, H1 chart

On the hourly chart, we can see that the price has consolidated the sell-off from $1,850 double top and the M-formation is compelling for a potential move on the $1,820 and break below to extend the downside and range. 

Gold, M15 chart

On the other hand, we are seeing a void in bids on the 15-min chart toward the highs of this hourly range as follows:

The thesis is the market could move higher to collect liquidity for one last move up into the order block before the final blow-off to the downside as the week gets busier.

DXY outlook

With all that being said, taking the US dollar into consideration, then there needs to be a bullish thesis applied in the case of a weaker greenback. 

Last week, the following analysis, US Dollar Price Analysis: Bears taking out short-term structure, 103 vulnerable of a test below, argues the case for lower DXY:

We have seen the price action play out as follows:

If there is more to come, as the price breaks structure and heads towards the price imbalances and order block below near 103.10, then what is that going to mean for gold? 

The bullish case for gold

A bullish case for gold comes above the current consolidation rage above 1,832 towards the prior highs in the prior two US sessions and then $1,850 as follows: 

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD flirts with tops near 1.3470

GBP/USD manages to regain composure and challenge the area of daily highs around 1.3470 on Friday. Cable picks up pace despite marginal gains in the Greenback in a context of swelling geopolitical tensions and rising global oil prices.

EUR/USD trims losses, back above 1.1500

EUR/USD picks up some pace and bouces off earlier lows, reclaiming the 1.1500 threshold and beyond at the end of the week. The pair’s modest pullback follows a persistent risk-averse market mood and renewed buying interest for the US Dollar.

Gold: The $4,000 mark holds the downside for now

Gold faces renewed selling pressure, falling sharply toweard the $4,000 mark per troy ounce as the US Dollar regains momentum. Escalating US-Iran tensions are keeping inflation concerns and expectations of further Fed rate hikes alive, weighing further on the yellow metal.

Bitcoin eyes 50-day EMA breakout, Ethereum consolidates, XRP steadies

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple trade near key technical levels on Friday as the broader cryptocurrency market pauses following last week's recovery. BTC is approaching the 50-day Exponential Moving Average while ETH continues to consolidate between two major EMAs.

Warsh needs to restore his reputation
We were glad to see our deeply negative reaction to the Warsh press conference was not some personal peculiarity. Just about everybody in the financial press felt the same way. The consensus is building it’s not the Fed in the dog-house but only Warsh. Today the WSJ changed it tune and blasted Warsh—"the honeymoon is already over..”
9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?
The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.