Global yields higher after Chinese data easing global growth concerns

Notes/Observations

- China data helps to ease concerns over any lasting global economic slowdown; core yields pushing higher as a result

- UK Mar CPI YoY reading remained blow the BOE target for the 3rd straight month (1.9% v 2.0%e)

Asia:

- Chinese economy performed better-than-expected in Q1 with data pushing the local overnight repo rate to a 4-year high of 3.00% over concern of a more hawkish PBOC. Rates have continued to rise despite the earlier announced medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation by the PBOC in which the 1-year MLP injected much less liquidity into the market as was expecting

- China Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.4%e; Y/Y: 6.4% v 6.3%e

- China Mar Industrial Production registered its fastest growth since July 2014 (Y/Y: 8.5% v 6.0%e v % prior

- China Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: 8.7% v 8.4%e

- China Mar Jobless Rate: 5.2% v 5.3% prior

- New Zealand Q1 CPI Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.7%e

- Japan Mar Trade Balance: ¥528.5B v ¥363.2Be Exports saw its 4th straight decline (Y/Y: -2.4% v -2.6%e – - Japan Trade Min Motegi: Trade talks with US focused on goods including autos and agricultural, good start to talks, No agreement reached yet

Europe:

- Eurogroup chief Centeno stated that Euro Area budget won't start as a 'bazooka'. He added that it was high time for budget execution and delivery in Italy and that Germany should use its fiscal leeway to support economic recovery

- ECB's Nowotny (Austria): saw 'nervousness' regarding Europe at the IMF meeting; No official plans on Tiering. No reason to change guidance

Americas:

- US Trade Representative (USTR) confirmed US and Japan discussed trade involving goods and agriculture; US raised concerns about 'very large' trade deficit with Japan. Parties agreed to meet again

Energy:

- Weekly API Oil Inventories: Crude: -3.1M v +4.1M prior

 

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.16% at 388.58, FTSE -0.09% at 7,463.25, DAX -0.02% at 12,099.39, CAC-40 +0.09% at 5,533.83, IBEX-35 +0.26% at 9,521.68, FTSE MIB +0.22% at 21,967.50, SMI +0.03% at 9,582.50, S&P 500 Futures +0.17%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade mixed this morning following a mostly higher session in Asia and stronger US futures. Bund futures trades over 30 ticks lower following upbeat China data over night. On the corporate front we have seen a pick up in earnings with major Swiss name ABB a notable riser after a rise in profits and Revenue which beats forecasts; Roche gains on a Rev beat and raised guidance; TomTom also rises after a strong Revenue beat and affirmed outlook, while ASML handily beat top and bottom line forecasts as shares rise over 2%; Ericsson, Barco, Vopak and Zur Rose are among other notable risers this morning on earnings. Meanwhile French traded Danone trades lower after inline Revenue numbers; BHP is another decliner after cutting full year guidance, and as Vale is set to resume output at Iron Ore mine. Else UK traded Carclo declines over 30% following a profit warning; Bunzl falls following a trading update and acquisition of distributor firm Colpack, while Zoo Digitial, Hunting and Svenska Handelsbanken are among other decliners on earnings. In other news Tele Columbus continues to see follow through rising another 12% after an upgrade at Barclays, while GenSight Biologics gains on positive RESCUE Phase III data. In the US Qualcomm is a notable rise after settling its royalty dispute with Apple, while Netflix declines following weaker subscribe guidance for Q2. Looking ahead notable earners include PepsiCo, Morgan Stanley, Textron, Pentair, and Abbott.

 

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Bunzl [BZNL.UK] -11% (trading update), L'Oreal [OR.FR] -0.5% (Q1 Rev), Danone [BN.FR] -2.0% (earnings), Pendragon [PDG.UK] -6% (trading update)

- Materials: BHP Billiton [BLT.UK] -2.5% (production results)

- Financials: Santander [SAN.ES] +1%, Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] +1% (MoU), Commerzbank [CBK.DE] +3% (reportedly rejected formal talks with ING)

- Healthcare: Roche Holding [ROG.CH] -0.5% (earnings)

- Industrials: ABB [ABBN.CH] +5.5% (new CEO; earnings)

- Technology: Wirecard [WDI.DE] +3.5% (Bafin report), ASML [ASML.NL] +3% (earnings), Dialog Semiconductor [DLG.DE] +1% (Apple/Qualcomm settlement), NCC Group [NCC.UK] +2% (takeover talks)

- Telecom: Ericsson [ERICB.SE] +4.5% (earnings), Deutsche Telecom [DTE.DE] -2% (Sprint/T-Mobile deal unlikely to be approved as currently structured), Elisa [ELISA.FI] +1% (earnings)

 

Speakers

- ECB's Hansson (Estonia) reiterated Council view that economic growth to pick up in H2

- Germany Economy Ministry updated its economic forecasts cut its 2019 GDP growth from 1.0% to 0.5% (as speculated)

- Germany Econ Min Altmaier stated that the domestic economy did not need a stimulus package

- Italy Fin Min Tria on budget outlook: govt was not overly optimistic on the growth forecasts. Govt planned to reduce the growth gap with EU. Stated that 2019 GDP growth forecast reflected expectations of a slight recovery in H1 followed by a stronger pick-up

- German Cabinet approved its 2019 debt to GDP ratio forecast of 58.8% (as speculated). **Note: Under the Maastricht Treaty the ideal level is below 60%

- Czech Central Bank Holub (chief economist): The next 2-3 policy meetings were a window of opportunity for Czech hikes. Saw one rate hike in 2019 as the most likely scenario. The delay to Brexit has potentially given the Czech central bank a small window to raise borrowing costs this year

- China Govt said to be considering easing car purchase restrictions

 

Currencies/Fixed Income

- Better Chinese data helped to sooth concerns over the lasting effects of the recent global economic slowdown and put some reversal in safe-haven plays..

- EUR/USD higher by 0.3% to test 3-week highs and back above the 1.13 level as better China data fanning hopes of a gradual economic recovery in the euro zone as well. Focus turned to the upcoming PMI data for the major European countries set for release in tomorrow's session (Thursday)

- UK Mar inflation data was slightly below expectations with the annual pace of CPI remainsing beow the BOE target for the 3rd straight month. GBP/USD saw its slight gains wilt away as a result. Pair around 1.3045 area just ahead of the NY morning

 

Economic Data

- (EU) Euro Zone Mar EU27 New Car Registrations: -3.9% v -1.0% prior (7th straight decline)

- (AT) Austria Mar CPI M/M: 0.9% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.5% prior

- (EU) Euro Zone Feb ECB Current Account: €26.8B v €37.1B prior

- (IT) Italy Mar Final CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0% prelim; CPI Index (Ex-Tobacco): 102.5 v 102.3 prior

- (IT) Italy Mar Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 2.3% v 2.3% prelim; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1% prelim

- (ZA) South Africa Mar CPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.6%e

- (ZA) South Africa Mar CPI Core M/M: 0.7% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.5%e

- (PL) Poland Mar Employment M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.9%e

- (PL) Poland Mar Average Gross Wages M/M: 4.3% v 5.5%e; Y/Y: 5.7% v 7.3%e

- (IT) Italy Feb Current Account Balance: €3.3B v €0.0B prior

- (UK) Mar CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.0%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.9%e; CPIH Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.9%e

- (UK) Mar RPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.6%e; RPI-X (Ex-mortgage interest payments) Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.6%e; Retail Price Index: 285.1 v 285.7e

- (UK) Mar PPI Input M/M: -0.2% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.9%e

- (UK) Mar PPI Output M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.1%e

- (UK) Mar PPI Output Core M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3%e

- (UK) Feb ONS House Price Index Y/Y: 0.6% v 1.2%e

- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Final CPI Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e; CPI M/M: % v 1.0%e

- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Trade Balance (Seasonally Adj): €19.5B v €17.4B prior; Trade Balance NSA (unadj): €17.9B v €1.5B prior

- (IT) Italy Feb Total Trade Balance: €3.3B v €0.3B prior; Trade Balance EU: €1.1B v €0.9B prior

**Fixed Income Issuance**

- No seen

 

Looking Ahead

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €1.0B in 2.5% July 2044 bunds

- 05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell €1.0-1.25B in 3-month and 12-month bills

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of next bond auction (held on Tuesdays)

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

- 07:00 (RU) (RU) Russia to sell OFZ Bond

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr IGP-M Inflation (2nd Preview): 0.6%e v 1.1% prior

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 12th: No est v -5.6% prior

- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Feb Retail Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.6%e v 1.2% prior

- 07:00 (UK) Weekly PM May question time in House of Commons (on break this week)

- 08:00 (UK) Baltic Bulk Index

- 08:30 (US) Feb Trade Balance: -$53.4Be v -$51.1B prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Int'l Merchandise Trade (CAD): -3.3Be v -4.6B prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar CPI M/M: 0.7%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 1.5% prior; CPI Core- Median Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.8% prior; CPI Core- Common Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.8% prior; CPI Core- Trim Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.9% prior

- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Traders Survey

- 09:00 (UK) BOE Gov Carney with ECB's Villeroy (France) in Paris

- 09:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.15B in APF Gilt purchase operation (7-10 years)

- 10:00 (US) Feb Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.3%e v 1.2% prior; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories

- 10:30 (DE) ECB's Lautenschaelger participates on panel

- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 10-year notes

- 12:30 (US) Fed's Harker (hawk, non-voter)

- 12:45 (US) Fed's Bullard (dove, voter) speaks at Hyman Minsky Conference

- 14:00 (US) Federal Reserve Beige Book

- (CO) Colombia Mar Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -5.6 prior

- 17:30 (US) New York Fed's Logan speaks at Money Marketeeers of New York