Germany avoids a technical recession

Notes/Observations

- Germany Q4 Preliminary GDP data misses expectations but avoided entering a technical recession

- UK PM May facing another possible defeat in Parliament on a Brexit motion

- Continued optimism on US-China trade front ahead of high-level talks

Asia:

(CN) China Jan Trade Balance: $39.2B v $34.3Be v $57.1B prior; Exports Y/Y: +9.1% v -3.3%e; Imports Y/Y: -1.5% v -10.2%e; Trade Balance with US: $27.3B v $29.9B m/m with components falling

- Japan Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.4%e v -0.6% prior; Annualized GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.4%e

- Australia Feb Consumer Inflation Expectation: 3.7%e v 3.5% prior - Japan Economy Min Motegi: Economy was in gradual recovery; expected domestic demand to lead recovery

- BoJ said to be shifting its view on CPI, to wanting to include effect of sales tax hike (prior wanted to exclude, on grounds it would be a temporary factor); now expects targeted policies to nearly offset the effect

Europe:

- UK Jan RICS House Price Balance: -22% v -20%e (lowest since July 2012)

- European Research Group (ERG) of Conservative Brexiteers said not to support a Government motion being put to a vote on Thursday, Feb 14th

- EU's Tusk: we're still waiting for concrete and realistic Brexit proposals

- UK Labour Party leader Corbyn faces up to 10 resignations from the Labour frontbench if he fails to throw his party's weight behind a fresh attempt to force Theresa May to submit her Brexit deal to a referendum in a fortnight's time

- Bank of Italy Gov Visco: Italy's problem is debt; need to intervene on public debt

Americas:

- US President Trump said to be considering 60-day extension for deadline on higher tariffs for China imports

- Fed's Harker (non-voter, moderate): In a wait and see mode on rates; saw one rate hike in 2019 and one in 2020

- Senator Rubio (R-FL) plans to 'soon' introduce legislation aimed at taxing corporate stock buybacks like dividends, move seen as attempt to increase corporate investment

- Bi-partisan US Senators renewed Russia sanctions bill to punish the country for interfering in the US elections and exerting malign influence in Syria and aggression in the Ukraine

 

Macro

(DE) Germany: German The economy barely escaped a technical recession with a flat q/q reading following the -0.2% q/q print in Q. There was no breakdown, but DeStatis reported that the domestic economy remained robust, with slightly higher private consumption, but a marked rise in public consumption and a strong rise in investment. There was no positive contribution from net exports, however. Companies remain sufficiently optimistic about the outlook to invest, which backs the Bundesbank's assessment that this is a temporary slowdown, partly impacted by one off factors.

(US) United States: Reports suggest that President Trump is considering pushing back the deadline for imposing higher tariffs on Chinese imports by 60 days. Trump said on Tuesday that he was open to letting the March deadline slide, if the two countries are close to a deal that addresses deep structural changes to China's economic policies, although he also said he was not "inclined" to do so.

(CN) China: January saw a $39.2B surplus in January, down from $57.1B in December thanks to an unexpected bounce in exports and a decline in imports. Exports jumped 9.1% y/y, rebounding from December's -4.4% y/y reading. The improvement may have been a function of Lunar New Year in early February and an attempt to ship goods ahead of the holidays. Imports fell 1.5% y/y after tumbling 7.6% y/y previously. The surplus with the U.S. fell to $27.3B v $29.9B m/m, and down from the recent high of $35.4B in November.

(JP) Japan: Q4 GDP recovered as expected with the weather-related temporary factors that impacted Q3 GDP unwound. Consumption recovered 0.6% from -0.2% dip. Exports also recovered 0.9% in Q4 after a -1.4% drop in Q3 & business investment jumped 2.4%.

 

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.30% at 366.06, FTSE +0.21% at 7,205.83, DAX +0.13% at 11,181.57, CAC-40 +0.39% at 5,094.30, IBEX-35 +0.03% at 8,985.25, FTSE MIB -0.36% at 19,917.50, SMI +0.58% at 9,212.90, S&P 500 Futures +0.27%]

Equities

European Indices trade higher across the board continuing the positive week on as positive earnings help lift the market. This follows on from a mixed session in Asia overnight and higher US futures overnight with reports President Trump considering a 60 day extension for China tariff deadline adding to the risk on tone. On the corporate front shares of Swiss name Nestle trades higher after earnings and continued organic growth in 2019; Astrazeneca rises on a strong top and bottom line beat while Airbus rises over 4% on earnings and guidance which came in ahead of consensus, and as as expected to announced the end of A380 production. French Car giant Renault rises on inline results, with Schneider Electric, Cap Gemeni, Commerzbank, DSM and Microfocus among some of the other notable names rising on earnings this morning. Meanwhile Credit Suisse falls on earnings; Aegon drops on an earnings miss with Unibail, Air Liquide, Puma and Ashmore among other notable decliners on earnings. Elsewhere Restaurant Group shares decline following the stepping down of its CEO; Motif Bio drops over 80% after receiving complete Response Letter from the FDA regarding the NDA for iclaprim. Looking ahead notable earners include Borgwarner, Ryder, Wesco, TransUnion, Coca-Cola and Duke Energy among others.

- Consumer discretionary: Nestle [NESN.CH] +3% (earnings), Puma [PUM.DE] -4% (earnings), Restaurant Group [RTN.UK] -12.5% (CEO steps down), Oriflame Cosmetics [ORI.SE] -12% (earnings)

- Materials: DSM [DSM.NL] +9% (earnings)

- Financials: Credit Suisse [CSGN.CH] -1% (earnings), Credit Agricole [ACA.FR] -1% (earnings), Commerzbank [CBK.DE] +2.5% (earnings), Ashmore [ASHM.UK] -6.5% (earnings)

- Healthcare: AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] +2% (earnings), ConvaTec Group [CTEC.UK] -20% (earnings), MDxHealth [MDXH.BE] +18% (partnership)

- Industrials: Airbus [AIR.FR] +5.5% (earnings; agreement with Emirates), Renault [RNO.FR] +4% (earnings), Gerresheimer [GXI.DE] +11% (earnings)

- Technology: Legrand [LR.FR] +7.5% (earnings), Schneider Electric [SU.FR] +5.5% (earnings)

- Real Estate: Unibail [URW.NL] -2.5% (earnings)

 

Speakers

- BOE's Vieghe: Global and domestic growth were slower than expected. Saw pace of BOE tightening slower compared to a year ago. If Brexit was smooth then 25bps rate hike likely per year. Easing or extended pause in monetary policy more likely to be appropriate than a tightening in a no-deal scenario

- German Economic Ministry: Domestic economy stabilized in the final quarter of the year but Brexit and trade remained a source of uncertainty

- Spain Budget Min Montoro: Elections will be held at some point in 2019

- Spain Socialist Part President Narbona: Election date announcement coming soon

- German Association of Chambers of Trade and Industry (DIHK): Concrete preperations for Brexit remains difficult for many companies despite intense efforts

- Turkey Central Bank Gov Cetinkaya: Liquidity steps might be taken for stability. Reiterated stance to maintain tight monetary policy until convincing improvement seen in inflation

- Japan Banking Lobby chief Fujiwara: BOJ shpuld not pay excess attention to the 2% inflation target; should conduct monetary policy in a forward-looking manner

- Russia Fin Min Siluanov: Prepared for new US sanctions, taken measure to respond to them. Sanctions of sovereign debt will hurt non-residents (own over 25%)

- Russia Energy Min Novak: oil would have declined to $25/barrel if no production cut agreement was in place. Could have a new OPEC-Non-Opec alliance memorandum in April at the Baku meeting. Saw big risks related to political situation in Venezuela, uncertainty affecting oil markets but no proposal at this time to increase global production

 

Currencies/Fixed Income

- EUR/USD was hovering just above its recent 3-month lows but unable to get back above the 1.13 level in the session. Germany Q4 Preliminary GDP data missed expectations but avoided a technical recession

- GBP currency was softer ahead of PM May's motion in Parliamentary vote that would not be backed by the ERG because it was perceived to take a no-deal exit off the table

- USD/JPY staying above the 111 level as the pair rose for a 4th straight session to its highest level in almost two months. Continued optimism on US-China trade front ahead of high-level talks prompting selling of safe-haven currencies.

 

Economic Data

- (NL) Netherlands Jan CPI M/M: +0.1 v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.0% prior

- (NL) Netherlands Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2 v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.9% prior

- (FR) France Q4 ILO Unemployment Rate: 8.8% v 9.1%e; Mainland Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 8.8%e; Mainland Unemployment Change: -90K v +18k prior

- (IN) India Jan Wholesale Prices (WPI) Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.7%e

- (DE) Germany Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.7%e; GDP NSA Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.8%e (**Notes: Avoids a technical recession)

- (DE) Germany Jan Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.7% v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 2.5% prior

- (RO) Romania Q4 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.4%e

- (FI) Finland Dec GDP Indicator WDA Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.6% prior

- (FI) Finland Dec Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -0.1% v -1.4% prelim

- (TR) Turkey Dec Current Account Balance: -$1.4B v -$1.5Be (1st deficit in 5 months)

- (TR) Turkey Dec Industrial Production M/M: -1.4% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -9.8% v -7.5%e

- (CN) China Jan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) at CNY84.2B, Y/Y: 4.8% v 0.9% prior

- (CH) Swiss Jan Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.7% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.2%e

- (HU) Hungary Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 1.1% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.6%e (fastest pace since Q2 2004)

- (NL) Netherlands Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e

- (NL) Netherlands Dec Trade Balance: €3.6B v €7.1B prior

- (SE) Sweden Jan Unemployment Rate: 6.5% v 6.8%e; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 6.0% v 6.4%e; Trend Unemployment Rate: 6.2% v 6.2% prior

- (PL) Poland Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 4.9% v 4.8%e

- (PL) Portugal Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 2.1% prior

- (ZA) South Africa Dec Total Mining Production M/M: -1.2% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -4.8% v -4.3%e; Gold Production Y/Y: -31.0% v -13.5% prior; Platinum Production Y/Y: 6.1% v 1.1% prior

- (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Preliminary GDP (2nd reading) Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e

- (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Preliminary Employment Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3% prior

- (GR) Greece Jan CPI Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.6% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6% prior

**Fixed Income Issuance**

- (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) sold toal €1.25B vs. €1.0-1.25B indicated range in 2029 and 2037 IGB bonds

 

Looking Ahead

- (UR) Ukraine Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.8% prior

- 05:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank (BCCh) Jan Minutes

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell bonds (3 tranches)

- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell £2.25B in 1.625% Oct 2028 Gilts

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan CPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.7% prior

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.8% prior

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Dec Property Prices M/M: No est v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.1% prior

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec IBGE Services Sector Volume Y/Y: -0.5%e v +0.9% prior

- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON200M in 4.5% 2024 bonds

- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON400M in 12-month bills

- 06:30 (TR) Turkey Central Bank TCMB Survey of Expectations: 12-month inflation expectation: from 15.9% to %

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

- 08:00 (RO) Romania Central Bank (NBR) Feb Minutes

- 08:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Feb 8th: No est v $477.7B prior

- 08:00 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

- 08:00 (IT) Italy Fin Min Tria in Senate

- 08:30 (US) Jan PPI Final Demand M/M: +0.1%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.5% prior

- 08:30 (US) Jan PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: +0.2%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.7% prior

- 08:30 (US) Jan PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade M/M: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.8% prior

- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 225Ke v 234K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.74Me v 1.736M prior

- 08:30 (US) Dec Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Retail Sales (Ex-auto) M/M: 0.0%e v 0.2% prior; Retail Sales( Ex-auto/gas): 0.4%e v 0.5% prior; Retail Sales (Control Group): 0.4%e v 0.9% prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Manufacturing Sales M/M: +0.4%e v -1.4% prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior

- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales

(US) Feb Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Index

- 10:00 (US) Nov Business Inventories: 0.2%e v 0.6% prior

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Trade Balance: -$0.7Be v -$0.9B prior; Total Imports: $4.2Be v $4.5B prior

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: 8.4%e v 10.8% prior

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.9%e v 4.7% prior

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Inventories

- 11:00 (US) Fed's Harker (moderate, non-voter)

- 11:00 (US) Treasury announcement on upcoming 2-year FRN

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills

- 12:00 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov Olsen

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 30-Year TIPS

- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan National CPI M/M: 2.5%e v 2.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 47.6% prior