GBP/USD Forecast: Sterling bulls fully dependent on dollar weakness, critical US CPI eyed

  • GBP/USD has benefited from pre-US inflation dollar weakness.
  • UK jobless claims missed estimated, falling less than expected. 
  • Tuesday's four-hour chart shows a well-defined range, with bulls in the lead.

Benefiting from the misery of others has its limits – GBP/USD has resumed its falls in response to unconvincing UK labor figures. The Claimant Count Change – aka jobless claims – dropped by only 58,600 in August, weaker than over 70,000 expected. That shows Britain's recovery is slowing down.

Figures for July were more upbeat, showing a drop in the Unemployment Rate from 4.7% to 4.6%, as expected. Excluding bonuses, wage growth remained elevated at 8.3% YoY, marginally above 8.2% projected. Nevertheless, the more recent figures carry more weight.

Moreover, millions of Brits are still on furlough schemes which are on course to be phased out. Slower growth and weaker government support mean higher uncertainty and potentially a delay in the Bank of England's path of rate hikes. Wednesday's UK inflation report will provide further data, but parallel figures on the other side of the pond are more important on Tuesday.

The headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to drop from the highs, but remain at 5.3%. Investors will likely focus on Core CPI – which the Federal Reserve also watches closely – and that is predicted to decline from 4.3% to 4.2% YoY. The Fed's target is 2%.

Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, signaled the bank is unlikely to taper the bank's bond-buying scheme in next week's meeting. Nevertheless, persistently fast price rises may erode his argument that prices rises are transitory and open the door to reducing stimulus in the following meeting. Tapering remains critical to traders.

US Inflation Preview: CPI critical for taper, three scenarios for the dollar

On Monday, markets recovered from last week's declines, and the better mood weighed on the safe-haven dollar. On Tuesday, it is all about CPI.

Apart from Britain's jobs data and US inflation, Brexit headlines refuse to disappear. Chief UK Negotiator David Frost insisted that the EU "must move" on the Northern Irish protocol. He threatened a unilateral suspension of trade arrangements. The issue adds to pressure on the pound. 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Pound/dollar is confined to a clear range in September – support is at the double-bottom 1.3725 and robust resistance is at 1.3895, a quadruple top, which held cable down since mid-August. Momentum on the four-hour chart is to the upside and the currency pair trades above the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages. 

Above 1.3895, the next levels to watch are 1.3950, 1.3985 and 1.4010. 

Support awaits at 1.3785, followed by 1.3725 mentioned earlier, and then by 1.3675. 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

How do emotions affect trade?
Follow up our daily analysts guidance

Subscribe Today!    

Latest Forex Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD remains pressured after US data misses estimates

EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.1750, paring its recovery from earlier in the day as the safe-haven dollar is bid. US Consumer Sentiment missed estimates with 72 points in September. The financial woes of China's Evergrande are weighing on sentiment.


GBP/USD trades under 1.38 amid on UK data, dollar strength

GBP/USD is on the back foot, trading under 1.38 after UK Retail Sales figures disappointed with -0.9% in August, worse than expected. Brexit uncertainty and dollar demand weighed on the pair earlier. 


XAU/USD surrenders intraday gains, drops closer to $1,750 level

Gold struggled to preserve its intraday gains and dropped to the lower end of the daily trading range during the early North American session. 

Gold News

Experts say Ripple will win SEC lawsuit, which might propel XRP to new all-time highs

The latest development in the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit is that documents are classified as privileged and blocked for public viewing. Though institutional investors are yet to take big bets on the altcoin in 2021, retail investors are actively trading in XRP.

Read more

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preview: Markets will have to look hard for positive signs

Consumer outlook expected to rebound to 72.2 in September. August’s 70.2 was the lowest since December 2011. Inflation and Delta variant wearing on US optimism. Markets face negative dollar risk from fading consumer optimism.

Read more