This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Higher which is correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Lower except the Sensex and Shanghai exchanges. Currently all of Europe is trading Lower except the Dax and Milan exchanges.

Possible Challenges to Traders

Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Crude Oil Inventory is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Natural Gas Storage is out at 12 noon PM EST. This is Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT). They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST with no real news items pending at that time. The Dow dived Lower at around the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT climbed Higher at around 8 AM EST and the Dow dived Lower at around the same time. These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $6.25. Please note: the front month for the ZT and YM are both Mar '26. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts Courtesy of BarCharts

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

EUR/USD off highs, back to 1.1850

EUR/USD loses some upside momentum, returning to the 1.1850 region amid humble losses. The pair’s slight decline comes against the backdrop of a marginal advance in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings.

GBP/USD advances to daily tops around 1.3650

GBP/USD now manages to pick up extra pace, clinching daily highs around 1.3650 and leaving behind three consecutive daily pullbacks on Friday. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the inconclusive price action of the Greenback, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborates with the uptick.

Gold surpasses $5,000/oz, daily highs

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The yellow metal’s upside is also propped up by the lack of clear direction around the US Dollar post-US CPI release.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.