Year-end signals for Gold, Silver, and Cryptos

It’s the final session of the year, and the markets are gifting us with clear signs for 2026 – at least its early part. 

Gold is down – again.

After invalidating the breakout above its October high, the gold price made another attempt to move higher – and this attempt failed.

Silver made a sharp comeback yesterday, only to decline sharply once again in the overnight trading.

The CME margin hikes are unlikely to be ignored in the short term. What I wrote in yesterday’s Gold Trading Alert and what I wrote in the additional fundamental analysis of the silver market remain up-to-date. Quoting yesterday’s Gold Trading Alert:

“Silver is up most significantly, and the question is if this rally can continue?

On one hand yes because so many fundamental factors continue to support it, but on the other hand, if gold formed a major top, silver is likely to decline in the near term, anyway. It might have been able to resist the declines, but CME just hiked margins for silver futures for the second time, and this likely suggests that the exchange is determined to get the price lower. That’s how the 2011 rally ended and what happened in 1980. The situation IS different now due to the physical shortages and significant (and rising) industrial demand, but I think that this will result not in the absence of the short-term decline, but rather in its longevity. In other words, I don’t expect silver to trade at low price levels for long and I think it could recover sharply on any day during the declines – making shorting silver particularly risky.

If you’re interested in the fundamental side of this, I’m quoting part of today’s issue of the Silver Catalyst newsletter:

(…)

In other words, the margin hikes are likely to work and hammer the price down. However, lower prices might attract significant physical purchases not just from investors but from industrial users, which – given the shortage – could push price higher once again.

And whether some big entity decides to buy large quantities of silver or not on a given day will likely not depend on technicals. That’s why placing stop-losses for a short position in silver right now might be challenging, and I don’t think shorting silver offers a good risk/reward ratio even though I do think that its price will move lower in the near term (and MUCH higher in the long term). 

Platinum’s failed breakout sends a loud warning

Platinum confirms the above.

The “little silver” (that’s what “platina” means, while “plata” is silver) had recently spiked above $2,500 only to fall below $2,000 just a few hours ago. The move above $2,500 and above the 2008 was clearly invalidated.

This is a major sell signal and a major confirmation of gold’s invalidation.

Miners ended yesterday’s session only 1% higher despite silver’s big upswing, which was a super-classic way for both to perform right before bigger declines. Silver is strong relative to gold while miners are weak.

Yes, the GDXJ is still above its October high, but – unlike gold, or silver – it already moved below its rising support line. It even moved back up and then down once again. This breakdown not only happened, but was also verified.

This is yet another confirmation that the top is in.

If the USD Index is starting a major rally here, the decline in PMs and miners is about to accelerate.

And it looks like the USD Index is indeed launching a rally in a way that very few would notice.

The USD Index moved to its April low and refused to move lower.

The USD Index moved above its declining, short-term resistance line and the breakout held.

Finally, despite the strong tendency for the USD Index to reverse its course at or close to the turn of the month, it’s something that is very rarely commented on in the media. In other words, it is a secret hidden in plain sight.

What does it all tell us now?

This is likely a stealthy bottom in the USD. The kind that people will notice only a few months later, and smack their foreheads while thinking to themselves “come on, it was obvious, why didn’t I see that.”

But you do.

One more thing before signing off for this year.

Bitcoin.

Technically, this is just terrible.

Confirmed breakdown, a slide, and a consolidation without a bigger rebound despite the most recent move lower in the USD.

But you already knew that, as I was writing about it at least several times.

Here’s something that I also wrote about, but only once or twice and not recently – if I recall correctly, I wrote that a year or two ago. The thing is that I’m not a crypto insider, but this guy is. He LITERALLY founded the second-biggest cryptocurrency – Ethereum. That’s the one that has much more interesting properties than bitcoin and can be used for smart contracts, for example.

Translation: both could become worthless. And with them, other cryptos that are not backed by something.

Alchemists have tried to synthesize gold from other materials for millennia to no avail. It was just not possible. The same with silver.

A major market rotation is underway

And here we are, “in the future”, trying to use cryptocurrencies as money. Stability is one of the properties that money needs to have. The volatile prices can be forgiven as long as the long-term trend is up, but this?...

Come on – is it really a prudent decision to use cryptocurrencies as money if they could become worthless within a few years? Treating it as a speculative asset or like a venture capital investment might make sense for many, but treating it as money?...

Sure, some forms of cryptos will still be useful – if they are backed by something. Stablecoins and those tied to precious metals, for example. The blockchain technology on its own is great in my view. So are the NFTs.

But all this doesn’t mean that bitcoin will be widely adopted as money. Besides, so many wars were waged and so many lives were taken just to keep or establish monetary power and we’re expecting The Powers That Be to give up this power and adopt currency that they can’t manipulate – just like that?

The technical formations in bitcoin and other cryptos suggest that people are finally beyond the crypto honeymoon stage and are realizing that this might not work as many expected it to and are seeing how ridiculously overpriced this market has become.

In my view, this is likely to lead to sales, panic and price slides. Interesting 2026, right?

Getting back to quantum computing for a moment – do you know what market it will actually support?

Silver.

Quoting part of the Catalyst #34 description from ‘Silver Rising: 100 Reasons Why Silver Will Soar’:

Catalyst #36: Quantum Computing Material Requirements

Price Impact Score: (4/5)

Probability Score: (3/5)

Details: Quantum computers require ultra-precise electrical contacts and sophisticated thermal management systems due to extreme precision requirements for quantum state maintenance. Quantum computing cryogenic infrastructure requires extensive silver use in thermal management and signal routing, as documented by IEEE Spectrum's analysis of quantum components, which notes that "wires are made of silver" in temperature stages above 4 Kelvin in dilution refrigerators. Additional technical applications include high-purity silver epoxy for chip thermalization at millikelvin operating temperatures and silver sinter in heat extraction pathways, as demonstrated in research by the National Physical Laboratory and Google. These thermal management materials become increasingly critical as quantum systems scale from current 156-qubit processors toward the million-qubit architectures required for fault-tolerant quantum computing by 2029.

I will likely discuss more in the upcoming Silver Catalyst issues.

All this means is that our silver positions in the investment and insurance parts of the portfolio are likely to benefit greatly, while the situation in the cryptocurrencies might be… challenging. And our profitable short positions in bitcoin are likely to be even more profitable in 2026.

All in all, it looks like a major shift is taking place in the markets right now, and that we are well positioned to take advantage of it.

Thank you for the 2025 and I wish you all the best in 2026. May the worst days of 2026 be better than the best days of 2025.