European elections results published on Sunday are most likely to cause torments on the marketplace while market holidays in the US and the UK on Monday should have an impact on liquidity. The recent bounce in GBP/USD from 1.2657 low is above all a technical correction since the outlook for British pound remains gloomy. The results from EU elections, PM May’s resignation announcement and dragging trade discords between China and the US stay major concerns.

Theresa May plan to submit a fourth vote on its Withdrawal Agreement to UK MPs is fading as investors are anticipating her departure in 7 June 2019, opening the door to supporters of a harder Brexit deal. Boris Johnson who initiated the Brexit campaign in 2016, is perceived as favorite in the 6-weeks run that should start following US President Donald Trump visit in the UK in early June 2019. Furthermore, with the support of British voters to Nigel Farage newly formed Brexit Party, the turmoil has probably just begun. Considering upcoming events, we consider the recent up-move in GBP/USD as unjustified and continue to favor further downside risk. The recent releases of April retail sales of 0% (prior: 1.10%) and ex. auto fuel 4.90% (prior: 6.20%) is not particularly bright either.


Stay on top of the markets with Swissquote’s News & Analysis


Currently trading at 1.2689 (-0.51 year-to-date), GBP/USD is heading along major support at 1.2607 (02/01/2019 low).

This report has been prepared by AC Markets and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by AC Markets personnel at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Buyers keep lurking around 13-day old support-line

Having bounced off 13-day old support-line, EUR/USD takes the bids to 1.1085 during early Tuesday. 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 4H 100MA seem near-term key resistances.


GBP/USD: On the back foot around 1.2130 amid Brexit pessimism

GBP/USD clings to 10-day EMA after fresh signs of no-deal Brexit. The UK PM writes a letter to the EU showing alternative arrangements to Irish backstop ahead of Germany/France visit.


USD/JPY: Bulls in control with eye on the 107 handle

USD/JPY holds in the newly acquired 106 territories, boosted again overnight in a risk-on environment where US stocks moved sharply higher. Technical indicators in the mentioned time-frame remain within positive levels.


Trade wars: Five signs Trump is losing to China – USD has room to rise

"Trade wars are good and easy to win" – said US President Donald Trump on March 2018. Nearly a year and a half later, Chinese industrial output growth has fallen to the lowest levels since 2002 and Germany is on the verge of recession.

Read more

Gold holds stable below $1500 amid few fresh catalysts

Gold awaits fresh clues to extend the latest declines below 10-DMA. With the lack of fresh directives, Gold remains below $1,500 during the Asian session. Gold awaits fresh clues to extend the latest declines below 10-DMA.

Gold News