Forecasting the upcoming week: Tariffs and the US labour market come to the fore

The Greenback sprang back to life after several weeks of declines, fueled by President Trump’s ramped-up tariff rhetoric, even as worries over the US economy’s health continued to simmer in the background.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed three weekly declines, managing to reclaim the 107.00 barrier and above despite the intense retracement in US yields across the board. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI will kick off the weekly docket on March 3. The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories are due on March 4, while President Trump will address Congress. The weekly MBA’s Mortgage Applications are due on March 5, followed by the ADP Employment Change, the final S&P Global Services PMI, the ISM Services PMI, Factory Orders, the Fed Beige Book, and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims wil be published on March 6, followed by Unit Labour Costs, and Wholesale Inventories. The Nonfarm Payrolls will take centre stage on March 7, along with the Unemployment Rate.

EUR/USD added to the previous week’s decine following another unsuccessful attempt to trespass the 1.0500 barrier. The preliminary Inflation Rate in the euro area is due on March 3, seconded by the final HCOB Manufacturing PMI in Germany and the Euroland. The Unemployment Rate in the euro bloc is due on March 4. The final HCOB Services PMI in Germany and the euro area will be released on March5 seconded by Producer Prices in the bloc. The ECB will decide on rates on march 6, seconded by the HCOB Construction PMI in Germany and the euro bloc, and Retail Sales in the euro area. Factory Orders in Germany are expected on March 7, followed by another revision of the Q4 GDP Growth Rate, and the quarterly Employment Rate in the euro zone.

After three consecutive weekly advances, GBP/USD relinquisede some ground despite climbing to new highs past 1.2700 the figure earlier in the week. The BoE’s Consumer Credit, Net Lending to Individuals and M4 Money Supply are expected on March 3, along with Mortgage Approvals, Mortgage Lending, and the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. The final S&P Global Services PMI takes centre stage on March 5. The Halifax House Price Index is due on March 7, followed by the BBA Mortgage Rate.

USD/JPY seems to have met some contention near the 148.50 zone, managing to reverse the previous week’s deep pullback. The final Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI will be released on March 3. The Unemployment Rate and Japan’s Consumer Confidence are due on March 4. The final Jibun Bank Services PMI is expected on March 5. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures are due on March 6.

A horrible week saw AUD/USD shed around two cents, halt a three-week positive streak, and retreat to three-week lows near the 0.6200 neighbourhood on Friday. The quarterly Business Inventories will come on March 3. The release of the RBA Minutes, Retail Sales and Current Account results are all expected on March 4, followed by the S&P Global Services PMI, and the Ai Group Industry Index. The Q4 GDP Growth Rate will be published on March 5. The Balance of Trade results are due on March 6 along with preliminary readings of Building Permits, and Private House Approvals.

Anticipating Economic Perspectives: Voices on the Horizon

• The Fed’s Musalem will speak on March 3.
• The Fed’s Williams and the RBA’s Hauser speaks on March 4.
• The Fed’s Waller and Powell are expected to speak on March 6.
• The Fed’s Bostic and Williams are due to speak on March 7, along with the BoE’s Mann.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policies

• The ECB, the CBRT, and the MNB will all meet on