Thin tape, minor noise: Modest declines as we close 2025

While stocks ended the day modestly lower, there was no drama and no real news driving the action. This was simply a session where trader types trimmed exposure, particularly in tech and precious metals. It was what it was.

By the close, the scoreboard looked like this: The Dow down 250 pts or 0.5%, the S&P lost 24 pts or 0.3%, the Nasdaq lost 120 pts or 0.5%, the Russell down 15 pts or 0.6%, the Transports down 88 pts or 0.5%, the Equal Weight S&P down 14 pts or 0.2% while the Mag 7 gave up 280 pts or 0.8%.

Nothing broke. Nothing changed.

Precious metals also came under pressure, prompting some to ask whether the recent run is over. Let’s be clear—it is not.

Yes, gold fell 4.5%, silver lost nearly 7%, and copper gave up 4.6%. But let’s not light the place on fire. These moves are minor when viewed against year-to-date gains: Gold: +72%, Silver: +166%, Copper: +43%.

This weakness is causing some to call for a broader correction. I’m not in that camp. I’m firmly in the “take some profits” camp—especially after the dramatic advances since the start of the year and, more specifically, the sharp moves just over the past couple of weeks caused by even more global central bank buying and money moving into precious metal ETF’s. Just look at the action in GLD, SIL and COPX!

Remember, precious metals are typically sleepers. They’re not designed to be exciting or volatile on a daily basis. They are solid diversifying assets, but they are not meant to be overweight positions in a long-term portfolio.

Instead, they fall into what we call ‘satellite positions’—smaller, targeted allocations that ‘orbit’ the core portfolio. Their job is simple: enhance diversification and help offset risk, without altering the portfolio’s long-term focus.

And for anyone who panicked yesterday and hit the sell button – take a look at what the group is doing this morning…. Gold is up 1.3%, Silver up 5.1% and Copper up 1.8%.

Bonds rose - the TLT up 0.4% while the TLH gained 0.3%. Yields though did nothing…. The 10-yr is yielding 4.11% while the 30 yr is yielding 4.80%.

Oil continues to trade just UNDER the trendline…and this morning it remains so at $58.30. Look – the trend is clear – just look at the chart – lower highs and lower lows since June….and while I do not think we go much lower - $55 I think appears to be support – I am not in the camp right now that suggests oil should surge higher…Remember – we are working thru a glut, that is expected to take until the spring to eliminate. OPEC+ is likely to acknowledge that reality this weekend when they meet. The expectation is that they will pause any further production increases, responding directly to the current oversupply.

This morning futures are churning and once again leaning lower – which I still think is a ‘head fake’. Dow futures are -18, S&P -3, Nasdaq -12, while the Russell is + 3.

There are two full trading days left in 2025 – retail investors are quiet and the institutional asset managers are not making any major moves. Today we will get the December FOMC mins – I do not expect to hear anything that we don’t already know.

Volumes are in decline and all that means is the any move – in either direction - will be amplified. We might get a bit of a surge (off of depressed levels) in volumes tomorrow – the final trading day of the year as some traders make last minute moves. In any event – unless there is some unexpected headline, that NO ONE saw coming – do not expect any drama.

European markets are churning a bit higher – Italy in the lead up 0.9% while France is carrying up the rear at +0.3%. The UK, Germany and Spain all up somewhere in between.

The S&P closed at 6,905 – down 24 pts on the day after testing as low as 6,888. This morning the S&P is essentially flat. We are 1.3% or 95 pts away from S&P 7000. I’m still betting on Wednesday. If Europe is any indication – it is not impossible……Let’s go!!!

New Years eve - Veal osso bucco

Elegant but not indulgent, Celebratory but not excessive.

This is such a great hearty dish – all warm and cozy on a cold winter night.

If done right - it falls right off the bone and melts in your mouth........Osso buco is a specialty in Milan. It is made with carrots, celery, onions, garlic, S&P, lemon zest, red wine, beef broth and tomato paste. I will tell you that this is one of my favorite dishes. You prepare it in the afternoon and then let it slowly roast in the oven for hours......try it!

First rinse the shanks and pat dry....dredge in seasoned flour – (here you can use GF – gluten free - flour) and then brown in a frying pan with heated olive oil.....making sure that you keep the heat on high to sear the outside while trapping all of the juices inside....After you have browned the meat - place in a roasting pan - making sure not to crowd them too much.....At this point - chop (not dice) the carrots, celery and onions....crush 4 / 5 garlic cloves (more if you are making a large pan) and spread the garlic and veggies over the meat. Add lemon zest on top - not too much - but enough so that you know it’s there.

Back to the frying pan - deglaze with red wine, add beef broth and a can of tomato paste (not puree) paste. Stir - bringing to a boil - then reduce heat and let thicken a bit - all of 4 mins or so.........if need be - add a bit more beef broth - then add this mixture to the roasting pan - making sure that you bathe the shanks (not drown) in wine/beef broth. Cover tightly (this is key) and place in a 400 degree oven for 30 mins and then reduce to 325 for at least 4 hrs.....when ready....take a look, smell the wonderful aroma, notice how it fills the kitchen and permeates the house.....

When done - remove 1/2 of the veggies and puree. Place some of the pureed veggies in the center on a warmed plate and then place a veal shank on top of that. Next - take some of the remaining veggies and circle the shank. You should serve this with a nice onion/parmegina cheese risotto.

Have your guests take a seat, light the candles, turn on some nice dinner music to fill the room. Try this with a Brunello di Montalcino - it’s like velvet and always works nicely. Happy New Year.