Silver stirs up the markets

While major global currencies, led by the US dollar, are recovering very slowly after Christmas, the precious metals market has been rocked by a real thriller. Silver and other assets in the sector have plummeted. For XAGUSD, the fall was the largest since the beginning of 2021. The trigger was an increase in CME margin requirements for related futures contracts. This forced speculators to take profits and triggered a pullback.

Silver saw a record rally in 2025. The 150% increase is significantly higher than that of gold and other assets in the sector. At the same time, the white metal is still far from the inflation-adjusted price record set in 1980. To return to that level, silver would have to cost $200 per ounce today. ETF stocks have grown by 150 million ounces this year, but are still far from the highs recorded in 2021. The ratio to gold also has room to fall. 

Speculators have used these arguments to justify the need for further purchases of XAGUSD. There is indeed serious competition between the US, Europe and Asia in the physical asset market. This is due to the risks of Washington imposing tariffs on silver imports after adding it to the list of critical minerals. However, the silver rally looks too rapid and resembles a bubble, and it is quite possible that it may have burst. After the CME raised margin requirements in February 2021, the white metal collapsed by 43% over 18 months.

Other assets in the sector are following silver. Despite the post-Christmas sell-off, gold is heading for its second-best performance in a year in history. The first was in 1979. The XAUUSD pullback does not look like a burst bubble. The US economy risks slowing down in 2026, and the Fed may accelerate the cycle of monetary policy easing, especially under pressure from the White House. 

Donald Trump is back to his old ways. The US president said he would gladly fire Jerome Powell as Fed chairman. He said that Powell was too slow to cut interest rates. At the same time, the US administration does not rule out filing a lawsuit against the head of the central bank for incompetence due to excessive spending on renovating the Fed's headquarters. The White House wants to make room in the FOMC for the ‘doves’. This increases the risks of a weakening US dollar.