EUR/USD Price Forecast: FOMC Minutes and the upcoming Fed Chair

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1760

• United States President Donald Trump threatened to sue Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
• The Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes from its December meeting.
• EUR/USD is stuck in a well-limited range with fading upward momentum.

The EUR/USD pair is under mild selling pressure on Tuesday, still trading inside a well-limited intraday range. Reduced volumes amid New Year’s holidays affect the FX board as investors head into the last trading day of 2025. The pair is still trading around 1.1750, as investors lack a clear catalyst.

If something, United States (US) President Donald Trump returned to the limelight with his attacks on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, although the news hardly affected financial markets. President Trump said he is considering bringing a lawsuit against Powell  for incompetence, calling the Fed’s Chair “a fool.” Trump also noted that he will likely name Powell’s replacement in January. Once the name is out, market players will try to assess how dovish or hawkish the new Chair will be and rush to price it in.  

There were no relevant news coming from Europe, while the US will release some minor macroeconomic figures, such as the October Housing Price Index and the December Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the December meeting. The document may inject some near-term noise, but hardly change the preset path.

Fed officials had anticipated an interest rate cut for 2026, and investors do not expect action in the January gathering. There is mounting speculation that the Fed may deliver in March, but the fact that the Fed will soon have a new Chair overshadows the potential impact of the December Minutes. 

 EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The 4-hour chart for EUR/USD shows it trades at 1.1760, slightly below its daily opening. The risk skews to the downside, although the directional momentum is missing. The mentioned chart shows that the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains above the current level, providing near-term resistance at 1.1774. At the same time, the pair remains above mildly bullish 100- and 200-period SMAs standing at 1.1727 and 1.1658, respectively, and providing dynamic support. At the same time, the Momentum indicator holds below its midline, edging modestly higher, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator sits at 43 and falls, limiting the bullish potential of the pair.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades above all bullish moving averages, with the 20-day SMA limiting the downside at around 1.1724. The 100-day SMA is flattening, reflecting the current consolidative phase, although the 200-day SMA keeps heading north, supporting the long-term upward potential. Finally, technical indicators remain above their midlines but ease, reflecting the absence of buying interest.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)