EUR/USD Price Forecast: US Dollar resumes its slide ahead of key data

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1755

• The United States will publish inflation and employment updates this week.
• Industrial Production in the EU rose by more than anticipated in October.
• EUR/USD aims to challenge December highs, optimism backs the EUR.

The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1750 on Monday, with the US Dollar (USD) under mild near-term pressure early in the American session. The Greenback managed to trim part of its last week's losses throughout the first half of the day, although gains remained shallow, with EUR/USD sliding to 1.1726 before turning back north. Generally speaking, financial markets remain optimistic, leaving the safe-haven USD on the back foot.

Hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver additional rate cuts in 2026 fueled the positive mood, despite officials’ cautious stance. Further clarity on the matter will come this week, as the United States (US) will release first-tier employment and inflation data. The country will release the November Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will include some October figures, on Tuesday, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Thursday.

In the meantime, the EU published October Industrial Production early on Monday, which rose by 0.8% in the month, improving from the previous 0.2% advance and better than the 0.1% anticipated by market participants. The US has little to offer other than the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and a couple of Fed speakers.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the 4-hour chart shows EUR/USD trades at 1.1755, up for the day. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) climbs above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, all rising, underscoring a bullish setup. The pair holds above these averages, with the 20 SMA at 1.1719 offering nearby support and the 100 SMA at 1.1627 underpinning the broader trend. At the same time, the Momentum indicator holds above its midline and edges higher, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 67, keeping the upside bias intact and hinting at additional gains ahead.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD develops above all its moving averages, with the 20-day SMA edging higher but still below the flattening 100-day SMA, the latter at 1.1644. Finally, the 200-day SMA resumes its advance below the shorter ones. The Momentum indicator stays above 0 but loses upward strength, while the RSI aims modestly higher above 70, falling short of suggesting upward exhaustion. A pullback would test the 100-day/20-day SMA band, while sustained strength could extend the advance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)