JPMorgan raises Gold forecast to $6,300, makes case for $8,000

Another big bank has raised its gold forecast.

This time, it’s JPMorgan expressing more bullish sentiment despite the recent correction.

The big bank raised its 2026 gold forecast from $5,055 per ounce to $6,300.

JPMorgan analysts note that the 11 percent correction late last month ranks alongside some of the largest down days in gold's history, including January 1980's 13 percent fall and the 12 percent slump in February 1983.

However, they emphasize gold bugs shouldn’t be worried.

"Even with the recent near-term volatility, we remain firmly bullishly convinced in gold over the medium-term on the back of ⁠a clean, structural, ‌continued diversification trend that has further to run amid a still well-entrenched regime of real asset ‍outperformance vs. paper assets."

JPMorgan analysts also lay out a case for $8,000 gold if households meaningfully increase their allocations. This underscores that while gold may become oversold at times, it is still significantly underinvested.

There has been growing interest in gold as a portfolio diversifier. Last fall, Morgan Stanley CIO Michael Wilson said investors should consider abandoning the traditional 60/40 equity/bond portfolio allocation and adopt a 60/20/20 distribution with 20 percent allocated to precious metals.

On average, Western investors (institutional and private) currently hold less than 1 percent of gold in their portfolios.

JPMorgan analysts estimate private investors currently hold around a 3 percent allocation to gold. If that share rises moderately to 4.6 percent, the incremental demand would challenge a market already constrained by limited new mine supply and persistent central‑bank buying. This “could suggest a price range for gold” between $8,000 and $8,500 an ounce.

To support this scenario, analysts say gold appears to be evolving into a “core holding” that is being “rebased higher” in investor portfolios rather than a hedge that occasionally spikes during a crisis.

According to a CNBC report, JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said households are substituting “duration risk” bonds with more gold exposure. He described it as a rebalancing between yield and purchasing‑power risk.

The decline in purchasing power is a growing concern as the U.S. government plunges deeper into debt. The only way it can manage its borrowing and spending is through the inflation tax. Despite the cooling CPI, we see increasing inflationary pressure in the money supply.

JPMorgan analysts point out that gold is up over 170 percent in the last five years.

“There’s a laundry list of reasons why, but the biggest driver may be a new era of geopolitical volatility and fragmentation, incentivizing investors to buy the precious metal. Now add on worries about currency debasement, growth, inflation, and irresponsible fiscal finances that haven’t been fully reflected in sovereign assets. It’s no wonder the precious metal has been a popular asset for investors during times of stress.”

JPMorgan analysts believe central bank gold buying will continue to support the market.

“Net purchases of gold have doubled since Russia’s war on Ukraine began in 2022. Central banks have fueled demand for the precious metal in efforts to diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar after the United States froze Russian assets.”

And while the JPMorgan analysts conceded there is a case for an end to the gold rally, it’s wrong.

“While this rally in gold has not, and will not, be linear, we believe the trends driving this rebasing higher in gold prices are not exhausted. The long-term trend of official reserve and investor diversification into gold has further to run.”

That’s because this rally is based on fundamentals, not mere speculation.

“In addition to hedging against short-term geopolitical risks, gold is a long-term diversifier. It’s an asset that can protect against inflation, outperform during drawdowns and reduce overall portfolio volatility, given its relatively low correlation to other assets.”