Weekly column: The $10-billion question of tariff refunds

Review

“President Trump’s global tariffs are illegal, the Supreme Court ruled Friday, in a stinging repudiation of a signature White House initiative.

The 6-3 decision, written by Chief Justice John Roberts, removes a tool of diplomatic pressure that Trump has aggressively wielded to remake U.S. trade deals and collect tens of billions of dollars from companies importing foreign goods. The ruling didn’t directly address whether the government will have to pay back the tariff revenue it has already collected.”

—By James Romoser and Gavin Bade, “Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Global Tariffs,” The Wall Street Journal, February 20, 2026.

Whilst analyzing the Winter Ingress chart for the Forecast 2026 book, I observed:

The square from the Sun is indicative of friction and conflict between the aims of the president and those of the Federal Reserve Board (Neptune) and members of Congress (Saturn). Symbolically, there will likely be a political struggle rooted in the financial markets or monetary policy, and an erosion of trust and confidence in financial governance. On the public level, there may be frustration with Congress and legislators (the eleventh house) or with the president (Sun in the eleventh), who is unable to act effectively due to financial constraints (Saturn–Neptune in the second).

It would appear that the constraints are not strictly financial, but rather legal.

News of the ruling had little impact on the financial markets, which have had a relatively muted week, with very little change from last week’s report. The bearish intermarket divergences noted in prior weeks remain in effect. The February 10 ATH in the DJIA remains intact, whilst the S&P500 has not been able to take out its January ATH, and the Nasdaq has not been able to take out its October ATH. The intermarket divergence was evident in Europe too, as the UK’s FTSE and Swiss SMI set new ATHs, whilst the German DAX has not taken out its January ATH.

It was a similar picture in Asia, with the Japanese Nikkei not able to take out the previous week’s ATH, whilst the Chinese tech-heavy Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) have both failed to take out their respective January highs. The ATHs of two weeks ago remain intact for India’s Nifty, whilst in Australia, the ASX has finally taken out the October highs and formed a new ATH. It’s a very similar picture in the Americas, with Argentina’s Merval continuing to find resistance, whilst Brazil’s Bovespa index put in a new ATH last week. The South African JSE index is yet to take out the January ATH.

Silver continues to consolidate following its blow-off top, whilst Gold is holding up much better. The crypto markets continue to consolidate in a bearish flag pattern, whilst Crude Oil remains on a bid as geopolitical tensions build in the Middle East. Saturn, the planet of contraction and restriction, has now moved out of Pisces, the sign that rules over Crude Oil. As noted in prior reports, my expectation is for Crude Oil to rally and break out of the long-term bearish trend that has been in effect since Saturn entered Pisces in March 2023. It is worth noting that the transit of Saturn has had a similar dampening effect on the grain markets, which are ruled over by the opposing sign of Virgo. Soybeans, Wheat, and Corn have all dropped 50-60% from their 2022 highs. With Saturn’s ingress into the fire sign Aries last week and the conjunction with Neptune, I would anticipate a rally in the grain markets, too. This will place pressure on inflation.

Short-term geocosmics

“After holding the line on prices for several months, companies—big and small—have begun a new round of increases, in some cases by high-single-digit percentage points. Companies had raised prices last year after tariffs hoisted costs. Yet starting in the fall, many firms held off on increases and sometimes offered discounts to capture holiday shoppers.”

—By Ruth Simon, “The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again,” The Wall Street Journal, February 15, 2026.

As I have been warning via my reports in MMA newsletters, and contrary to what President Trump would have us believe, tariffs are inflationary. Saturn may have been keeping inflation worries in check, but Friday’s Saturn-Neptune conjunction may have marked the low.

Last week, we also had the highly anticipated solar eclipse. Eclipses tend to have a more pronounced impact when they occur in the orb of a person’s natal planets, and especially the natal Sun. Look out for important events in the lives of people whose birthdays fall within 3 days of a solar eclipse. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor is a notable case. Arrested on his birthday, two days after the eclipse struck his eighth-house cusp—the realm of hidden forces, trauma, taboo subjects, power struggles, loss, fear, entrapment, and disgrace—he illustrates the negative expression of this house. At its best, however, the eighth house signals the recognition that change is necessary when a path has clearly run its course.

Over the coming week, Mercury will be going retrograde on February 26, followed by a powerful Mars square to Uranus the following day. These are important reversal signatures that form part of the upcoming critical reversal date of February 26–March 2. To understand what this could mean and our outlook on various markets over the coming year, tune in to the Forecast 2026 Webinar this Sunday (see details in the announcement section below).

Longer-term thoughts and opinion

David Frost: Do you feel that your people let you down, or that you let your people down?

Shah: First of all, when we say the people, we cannot talk about all the people. That’s absolutely not true. I can say that the silent majority remained silent. And if I let my people down, it was for the purpose that I tried to explain, that a king cannot be a dictator and that a throne could not be based on blood. This is my only explanation for what it is worth.

David Frost: Did your people let you down? Do you think?

Shah: Well, the majority remained silent

David Frost: Is the worst thing about being here [in exile in Panama], thinking of your homeland?

Shah: Well, here or anywhere outside my country is the same. The question is that you cannot stop thinking about your own country.

David Frost: What do you miss the most about it?

Shah: What I miss, or what makes me really cry, is that we could have been this year, or surely by the end of 1982, something quite viable…and what are we now? What has it [the revolution] served? The religion? Democracy? Human Rights? The rule of the people?”

— Mohammad Reza Pahlavi Shah’s last TV interview with David Frost, recorded on Contadora Island, Panama, and broadcast in the U.S. on ABC on 17 January 1980.

It is indeed hard to stop thinking about one’s country and loved ones, even after 36 years, and having spent most of my own life outside of Iran.

Most astrologers use the April 1, 1979 chart to represent modern Iran, when Ayatollah Khomeini proclaimed the Islamic Republic in a 3:00 pm radio broadcast in Tehran following a national referendum and the adoption of a new constitution. That chart places the Sun in Aries.

I prefer the February 1, 1979 chart, when Khomeini returned to Tehran and stepped onto the runway at Mehrabad Airport at 9:33 am to cheering crowds. In my view, this marked the true beginning of the Islamic Republic — a dictatorship in formation. This chart places the Sun in Aquarius, conjunct Mars and Mercury, resonating with the revolutionary ideology of the regime. It also helps explain the regime’s emphasis on nuclear and ballistic missile programs — Aquarian principles intensified by the Sun–Mars conjunction — as well as the recurring unrest and internal protests for freedom that continue to shake Iran’s foundation.

The February chart has the Sun at 11° Aquarius, Mars at 9° Aquarius, and Mercury at 6° Aquarius. The Sun represents the national identity and its leadership. Mars, as the planet of warfare, represents its armed forces. Mercury represents its media and press, public discourse, commerce and trade, transportation and communication networks, internet, and diplomacy.

Transiting Pluto is now in Aquarius and slowly approaching Iran’s natal Mercury, Mars, and Sun. Pluto symbolizes transformation—death and rebirth, power and control, collapse and regeneration. Following the sequence of contacts, Mercury is reached first, suggesting diplomacy and negotiations will be the initial arena of exhaustion. As Pluto advances to Mars, military force becomes the next phase. Ultimately, when Pluto reaches the Sun, leadership itself is transformed or falls.

Pluto is currently within a 30-arcminute orb of conjunction to Iran’s Mercury, reflecting the regime’s recent internet blackout—an attempt by Plutonian authority to sever Mercurial communication—even as diplomatic efforts unfold. Looking ahead, Pluto will conjunct Iran’s Mars by 2029 ±2 years and the Sun by 2030 ±2 years. Based on this natal pattern, the expectation is that the Islamic Republic ultimately falls within that time frame. Depending on when military action escalates, the chart suggests the potential for a prolonged conflict.

This week is also important because transiting Mars will fall on President Trump’s descendant, opposite his Mars/Ascendant. Transiting Mars also squares Uranus in the heavens, which falls on the President’s MC. He, and he alone, sits in a position to determine whether or not to launch an attack on Iran, and he has given a deadline that begins later this week, under this Mars/Uranus aspect, and the start of another Mercury retrograde cycle. February 26-March 20. What happens over the next 10 days could have a significant impact on several financial markets, particularly Gold and Silver.