EUR/USD Price Forecast: Cautious bulls keep adding longs

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1714

• The US Dollar under pressure following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.
• Optimism prevails despite the Fed’s divided decision, hawkish tilt.
• EUR/USD maintains its near-term positive momentum, aims for higher highs.

The EUR/USD pair trades near a fresh two-month high of 1.1719 on Thursday, with the US Dollar (USD) weaker following the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision. Following a two-day meeting, the Fed announced on Wednesday a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut, setting the Federal Funds Target Range (FFTR) at 3.50%–3.75%, as expected.

The accompanying statement showed policymakers were quite divided. Stephen Miran vowed for a larger 50 bps rate cut, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid preferred to keep rates on hold.

Additionally, Fed officials also published a fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which maintained the view of just one rate cut in 2026 and one in 2027, more hawkish than what the market suspected, considering Chair Jerome Powell will end his mandate in May 2026. The USD seesawed between gains and losses with the news, but ended up on the negative side, as optimism beat. Wall Street rallied, adding pressure on the Greenback, as speculative interest increased bets on upcoming lower borrowing costs.

The European macroeconomic calendar had nothing relevant to offer, while the US will publish some minor data, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Goods and Services Trade Balance.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the near-term outlook for EUR/USD is bullish. It stands 23 pips above the day’s opening price,and the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) climbs above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, with all three rising, supporting the bullish case. Price holds above these averages, and the 20-period SMA at 1.1656 offers nearby dynamic support.

Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator holds aboveits midline and extends higher, signaling strengthening buying pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69 is approaching overbought readings, and further upside could slow as conditions stretch. Initial support is clustered at the rising 20- and 100-period SMAs between 1.1656–1.1603, keeping the intraday bias positive while above this band.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades well above a bullish 20-day SMA at 1.1605 while remaining beneath the 100-day SMA at 1.1642, which still slopes mildly lower. The pair holds above these and the rising 200-day SMA at 1.1478, reinforcing a bullish bias. Finally, the Momentum indicator is advancing within positive territory, while the RSI is also bullish at around 66.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)