EUR/USD Forecast: Traders battle around 1.0700

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0699

The EU Producer Price Index jumped to 37.2% YoY in April, while the March reading was upwardly revised.
US employment data was mixed, as the private sector added just 128K new positions in May.
EUR/USD hovers near 1.0700 with limited bullish potential in the near term.

The EUR/USD pair recovered some ground early on Thursday and approached the 1.0700 threshold before giving up some ground ahead of the release of US employment data. Demand for the greenback receded as Treasury yields retreated from their recent highs, although stocks markets struggled to post gains as concerns remain the same.

Data coming from the EU was far from encouraging as the Producer Price Index jumped to 37.2% YoY in April, while the March figure was upwardly revised from 36.8% to 36.9%.

The US released the May ADP survey, which showed that the private sector created 128K new job positions in the month, worse than anticipated. The country also published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 27, which decreased to 200K, beating expectations. Finally, Nonfarm Productivity in the first quarter of the year was down 7.3%, while Unit Labor Costs in the same period increased by 12.6%. Later in the day, the US will release April Building Permits and Factory Orders for the same month.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair hovers around 1.0700, as US employment data had no impact on financial markets. From a technical point of view, chances are skewed to the upside, according to the daily chart. The pair is trading above a mildly bullish 20 SMA, while technical indicators stand at positive levels, although without directional strength. In the meantime, the pair is seesawing around a Fibonacci level, the 38.2% retracement of its 1.1184/1.0348 slide at 1.0665.

The 4-hour chart, on the contrary, indicates that the pair could resume its decline. After bouncing from a mildly bearish 200 SMA, the pair remains below a bearish 20 SMA. Technical indicators have recovered from near oversold readings but have lost their upward strength within negative levels, reflecting limited buying interest. Bears would have better chances on a break below 1.0626, so far, the weekly low.

Support levels: 1.0625 1.0580 1.0525

Resistance levels: 1.0700 1.0750 1.0790

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD: The 0.7000 level holds the downside…for now

AUD/USD has clinched its fourth consecutive daily pullback on Thursday, coming closer to the key 0.7000 region while breaking below the critical 200-day SMA at the same time. The Aussie’s decline comes on the back of further gains in the Greenback in a context of rising yields and Fed rate hike bets.

USD/JPY keeps the red near 158.00 as Japanese Yen firms up

USD/JPY retreats from three-week highs and holds losses near 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday. Surging Japanese bond yields lift the Yen amid looming intervention risks, while the US Dollar preserves overnight gains to a two-month high amid hawkish Fed bets and elevated US bond yields.

Gold bounces off lows, still below $4,300

Gold builds on Wednesday’s retracement, briefly slipping back below $4,250 per troy ounce to attempt a lacklustre rebound afterwards. The better tone in the US Dollar, rising US Treasury yields and expectation of extra rate hikes by the Fed continue to weigh on the precious metal in the latter part of Thursday’s NA session.

XRP is flashing three bullish signals heading into a historically weak October

XRP (XRP) is still flashing 3 bullish signals across its holders, derivatives, and ETF data. These signals come as the token gave back part of its September gains on Thursday. The token traded near $1.50 at press time, down about 6.3% over 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. The pullback still leaves XRP up over 15.6% on the week, a gain that tracks a broader market rally.

Advanced economies: From one example of resilience to another

History tends to repeat itself in advanced economies. Once again, growth ultimately fell short of expectations by only a small margin in the first half of 2026, despite the conflict in Iran. As early as 2025, the impact of tariffs was less severe than feared.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.