EUR/USD Forecast: Euro surges to multi-month highs above 1.1000
- EUR/USD trades at its highest level since early October above 1.1000.
- US Dollar stays under strong bearish pressure following US Pres. Trump's tariff announcements.
- The pair turns technically overbought in the near term.
EUR/USD gathers bullish momentum in the European session on Thursday and trades at its highest level since early October above 1.1000. Although the pair's near-term technical outlook points to overbought conditions, buyers could retain control amid the broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness.
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.39% | -0.89% | -1.64% | -0.70% | -0.56% | -0.80% | -1.72% | |
| EUR | 1.39% | 0.26% | -0.27% | 0.73% | 0.87% | 0.61% | -0.31% | |
| GBP | 0.89% | -0.26% | -0.50% | 0.47% | 0.63% | 0.36% | -0.60% | |
| JPY | 1.64% | 0.27% | 0.50% | 0.96% | 1.14% | 0.74% | -0.07% | |
| CAD | 0.70% | -0.73% | -0.47% | -0.96% | 0.24% | -0.11% | -1.05% | |
| AUD | 0.56% | -0.87% | -0.63% | -1.14% | -0.24% | -0.26% | -1.19% | |
| NZD | 0.80% | -0.61% | -0.36% | -0.74% | 0.11% | 0.26% | -0.95% | |
| CHF | 1.72% | 0.31% | 0.60% | 0.07% | 1.05% | 1.19% | 0.95% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
US President Donald Trump announced on "Liberation Day" that they will impose a 10% baseline tariff, effective April 5, on all imports to the US. The Trump administration will also impose higher reciprocal tariffs, which will go into effect on April 9, on about 60 countries they describe as "worst offenders." The European Union will be within that list, facing 20%, tariffs.
In response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said early Thursday that the US' tariffs will be a major blow to the world economy. "We are preparing a further package of measures to protect our interests," she added.
Investors grow increasingly concerned over the potential negative impact of the US' new trade regime on the economic outlook. In turn, the USD suffers large losses against its major rivals. At the time of press, the USD Index was down about 1.4% on the day at 102.25.
In the second half of the day, the US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and March ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. Investors are likely to ignore these releases and remain focused on trade war-related headlines.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart rises toward 80, reflecting overbought conditions for EUR/USD. On the upside, 1.1040 (static level) aligns as next resistance level before 1.1100 (static level, round level).
In case EUR/USD drops below 1.1000 (static level, former resistance) and starts using this level as resistance, it could extend its correction toward 1.0950 (static level) and 1.0900 (static level, round level).
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
