- EUR/USD remains pressured below 1.1300 as the week draws to a close.
- There are three US worries that join European ones.
- The technical picture is bearish for the pair.
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.1300, unable to stage a meaningful recovery. Markets are down, suffering from a risk-off mood that also pushes EUR/USD lower.
1) No shutdown, but an ongoing clash
US President Donald Trump eventually agreed to sign the funding bill to keep the government open, endorsing the compromise that Republicans and Democrats reached.
However, he also announced that he would use emergency powers to fund the wall, placing him in a collision course with courts and aggravating the political situation.
In any case, preventing another shutdown was already priced in, so the bittersweet announcement is not supportive.
2) Trade talks are not going anywhere
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer met Chinese Premier Liu He in Beijing. There have been no announcements, and media outlets say that both sides remain far apart.
The senior US officials will meet with President Xi Jinping later in the day. While surprises are possible, the notion is that there has not been any progress.
3) US retail sales
American consumers cut their spending quite dramatically in December: a drop fo 1.2% in the headline and 1.7% in the all-important Control Group. While some doubt the accuracy of the report, impacted by the government shutdown and Black Friday sales, it is hard to escape the concerns.
While the data initially weighed on the US Dollar, it dampened the mood and eventually supported the dollar and the yen.
The thinking is: if the US consumer is not doing that great, other areas are probably undergoing a more severe downturn.
The European calendar is quite light, but the American one features industrial output and more importantly, the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Confidence measure for February. It will provide further insights into the state of the consumer.
In the old continent, Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez is set to announce a date for an early election shortly. The minority government in the euro zone's fourth-largest economy failed to pass the budget earlier this week.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The broader trend remains to the downside, as shown by the price action and the drops in the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is leaning lower on the four-hour chart but remains outside the oversold territory.
The bears remain in control.
Immediate support awaits euro/dollar at 1.1270, the initial low point seen earlier in the week. 1.1257 and the fresh two-month low of 1.1248 follow. 1.1215 was the lowest level in 2018 and provides significant support. 1.1115 is the next line to the downside, dating back to June 2017.
1.1300 is a round number that also capped the pair on Thursday. 1.1310 awaits in the near vicinity after holding down EUR/USD early in the day. 1.1340 was a stubborn cap earlier in the week, and 1.1350 capped it late last week.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.