Gold is finding its footing
Gold has surged at its fastest pace in two months following reports that Donald Trump has called off strikes against Iran. The precious metal extended its rally on news of a deal between Washington and Tehran. With tensions easing, the outlook for Gold is improving. After dropping 18% from its highs and hitting its lowest level since November 2025, investors are once again seeing reasons for optimism.
Since the start of the geopolitical conflict, the precious metal has moved in the opposite direction to oil, so the fall in Brent has allowed gold to find its footing. Higher energy prices heighten the risks of inflation becoming entrenched at elevated levels and increase the likelihood of the Fed tightening monetary policy. This creates a headwind for gold, whilst the end of the conflict in the Middle East becomes a tailwind.
The precious metal’s rebound is being driven by US stock indices returning to record highs. The history of gold’s transformation into a risky asset dates back to 2025. At that time, gold prices jumped by 65%, whilst the New York Stock Exchange mining index rose by a record 155%. Gold can also serve as a source of liquidity, with investors selling it during stock market downturns to meet margin requirements.
Another factor set to drive gold's growth is increased demand for bullion from central banks. According to the WGC, 45% of the 76 central banks that responded to the survey plan to buy gold over the next 12 months. This is a record high since such surveys began in 2018. In emerging markets, this figure stands at 53%.
Taken together, easing tensions in the Middle East, lower oil prices, a reduced likelihood of further Fed tightening in 2026, stronger equity markets and robust central bank demand are creating a more supportive backdrop for gold, potentially paving the way for a broader recovery in prices.
The technical picture also favours the bulls, showing a striking surge in buying activity from the 61.8% Fibonacci support level of the 2022–2025 rally. Further confirmation of the reversal comes from the bounce off the 50-week moving average, which turned sharply upwards after slipping at the start of June.
Summary: Gold is rebounding as Middle East tensions ease, oil prices fall, Fed tightening risks fade, equities strengthen, and central bank demand supports recovery.
Author
Alexander Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, has been with the company since its foundation. From time to time, he gives commentaries on radio and television. He publishes in major economic and socio-political media.
