EUR/USD: Dollar up as fear eases

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1062

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The American dollar opened the week with a strong footing, as risk sentiment suffered a strong flip on Sunday, following an FBI announcement. The bureau said that the latest revision of Hillary Clinton's mail show no criminal activity from the Democrat candidate, and that they maintain the conclusion from last July. The EUR/USD pair gapped lower with the weekly opening, falling down to the 1.1050 before bouncing some, only to met selling interest around 1.1100 and resume its slide during the London session. The pair, however, stabilized ahead of the US opening, holding not far from a daily low of 1.1048. Data released in the EU was mixed, with the Sentix Investor Confidence index for November up to 13.1 from previous 8.5, and Retail sales for September rising by 1.1%, year-on-year, against expectations of 1.3%. The US will release its Labor Market Conditions index for October after Wall Street's opening, and later on the day, the Consumer Credit Change for September.

The EUR/USD pair trades around the 1.1050/60 region, unable to recover beyond the 50% retracement of its latest daily slide, and in the 1 hour chart, the price is also below the 20 and 100 SMAs, while technical indicators have bounced, after early reaching oversold conditions, but turned back south within negative territory, maintaining the risk towards the downside. In the 4 hours charts the price is holding below the 20 and 200 SMAs, while technical indicators have recovered, but remain within bearish territory. The pair is expected to remain range bound ahead of the US election with the dollar looking poised to extend its advance.

Support levels: 1.1010 1.0950 1.0910

Resistance levels: 1.1090 1.1120 1.1160

GBP/USD Current price: 1.2423

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The GBP/USD pair recovered from a daily low of 1.2380 reached early London, correcting modestly higher, but still looking short term bearish, given that in the 1 hour chart, the price is below a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator has resumed its decline below its 100 level, and the RSI indicator consolidates around 44, both coming from oversold readings. In the 4 hours chart, the price has broken below a still bullish 20 SMA, and now completed a pullback to the indicator, still unable to advance beyond it, while the Momentum indicator is ready to cross its 100 level towards the downside with a strong bearish slope, and the RSI hovers around 56, suggesting that while the upside seems limited, is no time to sell.

Support levels: 1.2425 1.2380 1.2335

Resistance levels: 1.2460 1.2500 1.2530

USD/JPY Current price: 104.39

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Holding above 104.00, waiting for US election's outcome. The USD/JPY jumped higher at the weekly opening, leaving an unfilled gap at 103.10, Friday's close, and trading as high as 104.62 this Monday, amid a sudden change in market's sentiment. Risk aversion that dominated the financial world last week, suddenly disappeared after the FBI cleared Hillary Clinton in its investigation over her use of a private server. The news, released less than 48 hours before the election and with already over 34 million Americans having voted, sent the JPY sharply lower, and re-triggered demand for high yielders. The abrupt move sent hourly indictors to extreme overbought readings that anyway have already been corrected, although the price held above the 104.00 mark. It also head above its 200 SMA, currently at 104.10, the immediate support. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have also reached overbought territory, before turning modestly lower, but overall the risk remains towards the upside, particularly if upcoming US data beat expectations.

Support levels: 104.10 103.70 103.35

Resistance levels: 104.60 105.00 105.50

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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