EUR/USD: dollar holds despite disappointing data

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1246

Live Chart for the EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair returned to its comfort zone around 1.1230 during the beginning of the London session, but the greenback came under some selling pressure ahead of the release of a batch of US data that resulted generally disappointing, particularly retail sales, resulting in further USD sells. August Retail sales fell by 0.3%, more than the 0.1% decline expected, while core retail sales fell by 0.1%. The Empire state manufacturing index fell to -2.0, while good news came from initial jobless claims for the week ending September 9 that rose to 260K, better than the 265K expected, and the Philly FED manufacturing index, up to 12.8 from previous 1.1.

The EUR/USD pair jumped up to 1.1283, as the data suggests that the US Federal Reserve won't be able to raise rates next week, but quickly retreated, ahead of Wall Street's opening. The 1 hour chart shows that the price is barely above its moving averages that anyway continue lacking directional strength, while technical indicators are once again flat around their mid-lines, indicating that the neutral stance persists. In the 4 hours chart, a slightly positive tone is also present as indicators are heading higher above their mid-lines, while the price also stands above its moving averages. A daily descendant trend line coming from this year high at 1.1615, is the immediate resistance around 1.1300, and the level to surprise to confirm another leg higher.

Support levels: 1.1235 1.1200 1.1160

Resistance levels: 1.1300 1.1335 1.1370

GBP/USD Current price: 1.3207

View Live Chart for the GBP/USD

The Bank of England monthly economic policy meeting resulted in a non-event, as policy makers decided to maintain their policies unchanged unanimously. The Minutes of the meeting were quite moderated and conservative, albeit the MPC has left doors opened for another rate cut this year, should the economic situation worsen on the back of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union. The GBP/USD pair fell down to 1.3184, but pared losses after the release of US data. Still the bounce is limited, with the pair struggling to hold above the 1.3200 level. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is unable to advance beyond its 20 SMA, while indicators maintain bearish slopes within negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA is also capping the upside and attracting sellers, while the technical indicators are turning modestly lower within negative territory, supporting some further slides on a break below 1.3200.

Support levels: 1.3190 1.3150 1.3110

Resistance levels: 1.3235 1.3280 1.3320

USD/JPY Current price: 102.53

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair plunged to a fresh weekly low of 101.87 right after the release of US data, but bounced sharply back, rallying to a daily high of 102.66. There are no clear reasons beyond this latest dollar's comeback , although most majors are not far from pre-news levels, which probably means that investors are not willing to take any stance ahead of the upcoming FED meeting next week. Technically, the pair is now modestly bullish, having advanced above its 100 and 200 SMAs in the 1 hour chart that converge around 102.40, although indicators head nowhere around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, indicators hold withn positive territory, but present a limited upward potential, whilst the price keeps holding above a bullish 100 SMA, enough at this point to keep the downside limited and attract short term buyers on dips.

Support levels: 102.40 102.10 101.65

Resistance levels: 102.90 103.35 103.70

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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