EUR/USD analysis: bears retain control, despite worries over tariffs

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1683

Trump-Putin meeting and US Retail Sales to take center stage at the beginning of the week.
USD the strongest currency despite worries over tariffs weighed on local sentiment.

The dollar eased in the last trading day of the week, anyway closing it up against all of its major rivals. The EUR/USD settled at 1.1685, up from a daily low of 1.1612, as a softer-than-expected US consumer confidence headline exacerbated profit-taking ahead of the weekend. The July preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 97.1, missing expectations of 98.2 and the lowest in six months, as sentiment is being weighed by worries over tariffs. Also on Friday, the US Federal Reserve released the document head's Powell will present next week to the Congress, although nothing new came out of it.

This week will start with the release of the US June Retail Sales seen up 0.4% in the month, from a previous 0.9% advance. The core reading, the Retail Sales control group, is expected to come at 0.4% from the previous 0.5%. US President Trump will meet with his Russian counterpart, Putin, at the beginning of the day, and their comments will be closely watched. The only relevant macroeconomic figure from the EU this week will be June inflation, to be out next Wednesday.

The pair closed the day below 1.1720, the 23.6% retracement of its April/May decline, which limits the upward potential. Ever since hitting lows at around 1.1510, the pair has been trading below the 38.2% retracement of the same decline at 1.1855, and only above this last bulls could retake control. Technically, the daily chart presents a mild positive stance, as the pair finished a couple of pips above its 20 DMA, which anyway lacks directional strength, but well below the larger ones. The Momentum indicator bounced from its mid-line, maintaining its bullish slope, while the RSI heads nowhere around 49. Shorter term and according to the 4 hours chart, the price is stuck in a congestion of moving averages, a sign of uncertainty, while technical indicators turned flat below their mid-lines, skewing the risk toward the downside.

Support levels: 1.1660 1.1620 1.1580

Resistance levels: 1.1720 1.1755 1.1790

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Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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