|

EUR rallies amid prospect of softer Trump trade tariffs and 'buoyant' PMIs

The euro has had a very good week so far, with common currency briefly rallying above the 1.05 level this morning.

The prospect of a softer stance towards trade protectionism from President Trump is a clear bullish signal for the euro given the common bloc’s high dependence on external demand (the export to GDP ratio is above 50%), particularly from the US and China.

A more buoyant set of business activity PMI figures has provided the euro with a fresh leg up.

The flash composite index from S&P jumped back above the level of 50 for the first time August in January (50.2). This follows a surprise to the upside in the manufacturing sector (46.1 vs. 45.3) and a modest miss in the services index (51.4 vs. 51.6).”

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

More from Matthew Ryan, CFA
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD eases toward 1.1700 as USD recovers

EUR/USD stays on the back foot and declines toward 1.1700 on Friday. The pair faces headwinds from a renewed uptick in the US Dollar as investors look past softer US inflation data. However, the EUR/USD downside appears capped by expectations of the Fed-ECB monetary policy divergence. 

GBP/USD steadies below 1.3400 as traders digest BoE policy update and US inflation data

The GBP/USD pair stalls the previous day's pullback from the vicinity of mid-1.3400s and a nearly two-month high, though it struggles to attract meaningful buyers during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3380-1.3385 region, up only 0.05% for the day, amid mixed cues.

Gold stays weak below $4,350 as USD bulls shrug off softer US CPI

Gold holds the previous day's late pullback from the vicinity of the record high and stays in the red below $4,350 in the European session on Friday. The US CPI report released on Thursday pointed to cooling inflationary pressures, but the US Dollar seems resilient amid a fresh bout of short-covering.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple correction slide as BoJ rate decision weighs on sentiment

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are extending their correction phases after losing nearly 3%, 8%, and 10%, respectively, through Friday. The pullback phase is further strengthened as the upcoming Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Friday weighs on risk sentiment, with BTC breaking key support, ETH deepening weekly losses, and XRP sliding to multi-month lows.

How much can one month of soft inflation change the Fed’s mind?

One month of softer inflation data is rarely enough to shift Federal Reserve policy on its own, but in a market highly sensitive to every data point, even a single reading can reshape expectations. November’s inflation report offered a welcome sign of cooling price pressures. 

Ethereum Price Forecast: EF outlines ways to solve growing state issues

Ethereum price today: $2,920. The EF noted that Ethereum's growing state could lead to centralization and weaken censorship resistance. The Stateless Consensus team outlined state expiry, state archive and partial statelessness as potential solutions to the growing state load.