Crude oil prices rallied amid unexpected OPEC deal
Market Brief
In Asia, equities rallied strongly this morning following a positive lead from Wall Street and a jump in crude prices after OPEC members said they will all support an output reduction. After months heated discussions, OPEC ministers finally found a common ground as they reached a preliminary agreement to cut production to a range of 32.5mio to 33mio barrels a day (in August OPEC production reached 33.69mio barrels a day). Crude Oil prices reacted sharply yesterday amid the announcement of the pre-agreement with the West Texas Intermediate jumping more than 6% to $47.20 a barrel and the Brent crude testing the $49 level. However, even if it is a good news for oil prices, this is just a pre-agreement in which OPEC members agreed to trim production without saying who will take the cut or how it will be divided. Therefore, we would rather remain cautious regarding the eventuality of an actual trim in production as OPEC members have been consistently unable to find a common ground.
The Japanese yen was the worst performer amongst the G10 complex as it fell 0.85% against the US dollar. USD/JPY rose to 101.75 in Tokyo from 100.69 in reaction to the combined effect of OPEC deal, which drove investors towards higher-yielding assets and a sharp drop in retail sales. Retail sales unexpectedly fell in August for the first time in three months, contracting 2.1%y/y, while the market was expecting a reduction of 1.7%. This is a really bad news for the country as most of growth is generated by consumer spending. It will also drag inflation lower, which would encourage the BoJ to ease further its monetary policy. However, given the ineffectiveness of the multiple easing measures implemented over the past few months, we doubt the central bank would dare to increase stimulus before seeing the effects of the last measures undertaken at its last meeting on September 21st.
Equities were buoyed in overnight trading with all Asian regional markets trading in positive territory. In Japan, the Nikkei was up 1.39% and the broader Topix index rose 0.94%. In mainland China, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites were up 0.30% and 0.38%, while offshore the Hang Seng edged up 0.04%. On the commodity side, natural gas rose 0.63%, iron ore was up 1.90% and copper gained 0.90%.
Today traders will be watching unemployment rate from Denmark; retail sales and CPI from Spain; unemployment rate from Germany; mortgage approval from the UK; consumer confidence from the Euro zone; CPI from Germany; wholesale inventories, personal consumption, core PCE, GDP and pending home sales form the US.
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 16693.71 | 1.39 |
| Hang Seng Index | 23629.36 | 0.04 |
| Shanghai Index | 2998.135 | 0.34 |
| FTSE futures | 6870.5 | 0.98 |
| DAX futures | 10526 | 0.95 |
| SMI Futures | 8262 | 0.67 |
| S&P future | 2166 | 0.13 |
| Global Indexes | Current Level | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | 1321.41 | -0.01 |
| Silver | 19.14 | -0.27 |
| VIX | 12.39 | -5.42 |
| Crude wti | 46.96 | -0.19 |
| USD Index | 95.49 | 0.06 |
| Today's Calendar | Estimates | Previous | Country/GMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DE Aug Unemployment Rate SA | 3,50% | 3,50% | DKK/07:00 |
| DE Aug Unemployment Rate Gross Rate | 4,20% | 4,20% | DKK/07:00 |
| SP Aug Retail Sales YoY | - | 3,10% | EUR/07:00 |
| SP Aug Retail Sales SA YoY | 4,50% | 4,90% | EUR/07:00 |
| TU Sep Economic Confidence | - | 72,7 | TRY/07:00 |
| SA Bloomberg Sept. South Africa Economic Survey (Table) | - | - | ZAR/07:00 |
| SP Sep P CPI EU Harmonised MoM | 0,90% | 0,00% | EUR/07:00 |
| SP Sep P CPI EU Harmonised YoY | 0,20% | -0,30% | EUR/07:00 |
| SP Sep P CPI MoM | 0,20% | 0,10% | EUR/07:00 |
| SP Sep P CPI YoY | 0,20% | -0,10% | EUR/07:00 |
| RU Bloomberg Sept. Russia Economic Survey | - | - | RUB/07:30 |
| TU Bloomberg Sept. Turkey Economic Survey | - | - | TRY/07:50 |
| GE Sep Unemployment Change (000's) | -5k | -7k | EUR/07:55 |
| GE Sep Unemployment Claims Rate SA | 6,10% | 6,10% | EUR/07:55 |
| TU Aug Foreign Tourist Arrivals YoY | - | -36,70% | TRY/08:00 |
| FI Bank of Finland Governor Liikanen Briefing on Monetary Policy | - | - | EUR/08:00 |
| UK Aug Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings | 2.6b | 2.7b | GBP/08:30 |
| UK Aug Mortgage Approvals | 60.2k | 60.9k | GBP/08:30 |
| UK Aug Money Supply M4 MoM | - | 1,20% | GBP/08:30 |
| UK Aug M4 Money Supply YoY | - | 3,90% | GBP/08:30 |
| UK Aug M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised | - | 14,70% | GBP/08:30 |
| EC Sep Economic Confidence | 103,5 | 103,5 | EUR/09:00 |
| EC Sep Business Climate Indicator | 0,05 | 0,02 | EUR/09:00 |
| EC Sep Industrial Confidence | -4,2 | -4,4 | EUR/09:00 |
| EC Sep Services Confidence | 10 | 10 | EUR/09:00 |
| EC Sep F Consumer Confidence | -8,2 | -8,2 | EUR/09:00 |
| US Fed's Harker Speaks in Dublin, Ireland | - | - | USD/09:00 |
| EC ECB's Praet Speaks in Halle, Germany | - | - | EUR/09:00 |
| SA Aug PPI MoM | 0,20% | 0,80% | ZAR/09:30 |
| SA Aug PPI YoY | 7,50% | 7,40% | ZAR/09:30 |
| BZ Sep FGV Inflation IGPM MoM | 0,25% | 0,15% | BRL/11:00 |
| BZ Sep FGV Inflation IGPM YoY | 10,72% | 11,49% | BRL/11:00 |
| GE Sep P CPI MoM | 0,00% | 0,00% | EUR/12:00 |
| GE Sep P CPI YoY | 0,60% | 0,40% | EUR/12:00 |
| GE Sep P CPI EU Harmonized MoM | 0,00% | -0,10% | EUR/12:00 |
| GE Sep P CPI EU Harmonized YoY | 0,50% | 0,30% | EUR/12:00 |
| US Fed's Lockhart Speaks to the Future of Florida Forum | - | - | USD/12:20 |
| US Aug Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$62.2b | -$59.3b | USD/12:30 |
| US Aug P Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0,00% | 0,00% | USD/12:30 |
| US 2Q T GDP Annualized QoQ | 1,30% | 1,10% | USD/12:30 |
| US 2Q T Personal Consumption | 4,40% | 4,40% | USD/12:30 |
| US 2Q T GDP Price Index | 2,30% | 2,30% | USD/12:30 |
| US 2Q T Core PCE QoQ | 1,80% | 1,80% | USD/12:30 |
| US sept..24 Initial Jobless Claims | 260k | 252k | USD/12:30 |
| US sept..17 Continuing Claims | 2129k | 2113k | USD/12:30 |
| RU sept..23 Gold and Forex Reserve | - | 396.6b | RUB/13:00 |
| US sept..25 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | - | 41,3 | USD/13:45 |
| US Aug Pending Home Sales MoM | 0,00% | 1,30% | USD/14:00 |
| US Aug Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 2,60% | -2,20% | USD/14:00 |
| US Fed's Powell Speaks on Trends in Community Bank Performance | - | - | USD/14:00 |
| EC ECB's Constancio Speaks in Frankfurt | - | - | EUR/14:00 |
| UK BOE's Forbes on panel at conference in Frankfurt | - | - | GBP/14:00 |
| BZ ABRAS August Supermarket Sales | - | - | BRL/14:30 |
| EC ECB's Nowotny on panel discussion in Berlin | - | - | EUR/17:00 |
| BZ Aug Central Govt Budget Balance | -18.8b | -18.6b | BRL/17:30 |
| US Fed's Kashkari Speaks at Town Hall in South Dakota | - | - | USD/18:00 |
| US Yellen addresses minority banking conference via video link | - | - | USD/20:00 |
| SK Oct Business Survey Non-Manufacturing | - | 75 | KRW/21:00 |
| SK Oct Business Survey Manufacturing | - | 74 | KRW/21:00 |
| NZ Aug Building Permits MoM | - | -10,50% | NZD/21:45 |
| BZ Aug Tax Collections | 95000m | 107416m | BRL/22:00 |
| EC Sibos Conference in Geneva | - | - | EUR/22:00 |
Currency Tech
EURUSD
R 2: 1.1616
R 1: 1.1428
CURRENT: 1.1224
S 1: 1.1046
S 2: 1.0913
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.3445
R 1: 1.3121
CURRENT: 1.3026
S 1: 1.2851
S 2: 1.2798
USDJPY
R 2: 107.90
R 1: 104.32
CURRENT: 101.53
S 1: 99.02
S 2: 96.57
USDCHF
R 2: 0.9956
R 1: 0.9885
CURRENT: 0.9714
S 1: 0.9522
S 2: 0.9444
- S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot
Author
Arnaud Masset
Swissquote Bank Ltd
Arnaud Masset is a Market Analyst at Swissquote Bank. He has a strong technical background and also works in the development of quantitative trading strategies.
