Core US PCE data – US 100 index [Video]

Core US PCE data – US 100 index

Following last week’s 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, investor attention now turns to the upcoming Core US PCE Price index, scheduled for release on September 26. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, this data will be instrumental in shaping expectations for future monetary policy.

July’s core PCE rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures. Consensus forecasts for August point to a slight moderation to 0.2% m/m, but any upside surprise could dampen risk sentiment and reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance.

Notably, the Fed has revised its 2025 PCE inflation forecast upward to above 3%, citing tariff-related price pressures and residual effects of accommodative policy. This suggests that despite the recent rate cut, the central bank remains vigilant. A softer print could pave the way for another rate cut in October, while a stronger reading may delay further easing.

The US100 cash index surged to a fresh all-time high following the Fed’s decision, comfortably holding above the 24,000 psychological level. The bullish momentum remains intact, and sustained price action above the uptrend line could target the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the February–April down leg at 25,900. Conversely, a pullback may prompt a retest of the 24,000 support zone.

SNB meeting -– USD/CHF

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to maintain its policy rate at 0.00% during this week’s meeting, as inflation remains within target and macroeconomic conditions appear stable. While a minority of analysts still see scope for a rate cut later this year, the consensus favors a steady stance for now.

In a notable shift toward transparency, the SNB will publish a summary of its policy discussions for the first time, offering deeper insight into its decision-making process.

USDCHF is staging a recovery after dipping to a 14-year low of 0.7828 last week. It is currently testing the 20-day SMA at 0.7960, just above the short-term downtrend line and the 50-day SMA at 0.8015. A rejection at these levels could trigger a move back toward recent lows, while a breakout may signal further upside potential.

Eurozone flash PMIs – EUR/USD

Preliminary September PMIs for the Eurozone suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook, with the composite PMI showing signs of improvement and pointing to continued recovery. The services sector remains the primary growth driver, while manufacturing is stabilizing, albeit still facing external headwinds.

These encouraging indicators have led to upward revisions in 2025 GDP growth forecasts, supported by stronger-than-expected data and positive carry-over effects. However, business sentiment remains tempered by global trade uncertainties and tariff-related risks, particularly from from US trade policy.

EUR/USD  is pulling back from a four-year high of 1.1917, approaching key support levels including the long-term uptrend line and short-term SMAs. A rebound from these levels could set the stage for another test of the 200-month SMA at 1.2000, while a break below the rising trend line at 1.1650 may expose the 1.1590 support.