Confusing JPY

Japan's 4Q 2017 real GDP rose 0.1% Q/Q and annual 0.5% Q/Q, below expectation for annualized 1.0% increase. However, the Japanese economy has now experienced two years of growth. In a marginal shift Private consumption rose 0.5% Q/Q suggesting household are becoming more confident in economic outlook. JPY continues to appreciate bit overall behavior is confusing. Historical relationship between USDJPY and yields has totally decoupled. During recent period of volatility FX traders favored haven currencies like the JPY and CHF, as well as the EUR.

Yet vol hast decreased significantly, as US interest expectations shown by 10-year breakeven has fallen. Japanese government leaders confirmed their confidence in BoJ Governor Kuroda, bolstering expectations that he will be reappointed for an uncommon second term. Kuroda dovish pedigree indicated at talk of early exit is unwarranted. Clearly, from today data growth has returned but hardly strong enough to demand investor’s attention (especial considering jpy inverse relationship between strength and exprt growth). USDJPY 107.30 “line-in-the-sand” failed to put up much of a fight.


Stay on top of the markets with Swissquote’s News & Analysis


This report has been prepared by AC Markets and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by AC Markets personnel at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.