Chip stocks had their worst day since 2020 as Musk says Softbank is defaulting on turbine orders

EU mid-market update: US futures bounce from the lows on reports Anthropic’s ARR topped $80B as Asia catches down; Chip stocks had their worst day since 2020 as Musk says Softbank is defaulting on turbine orders; US payrolls day.

The brief

- A midterm-driven selloff spread from AI chip stocks to the whole market: the SOX fell 12.25%, its worst day since March 2020, the S&P 500 >4% and Nasdaq >6%, entering a correction. Memory names were hit hardest on fears that permit freezes and funding gaps will delay 2028 data-centre capacity, and Korea and Taiwan stepped in after falls of 6-9% across Asia. US futures have since bounced on reports that Anthropic’s annual revenue run-rate passed $80B. Funding still looks shaky, though, with Anthropic’s ~$1.5T IPO possibly delayed and Musk claiming SoftBank is defaulting on turbine orders. On policy, the Fed’s Williams cooled December hike odds to about 70%, the BoE raised rates to 4%, and Brent is near $98 as Trump weighs new strikes on Iran. Non-chip earnings held up well, and today’s payrolls report will decide whether the Fed or the market gives way first.

Observations in full

- The midterm selloff spread from AI suppliers to the whole market in one session. The SOX fell 12.25%, its worst day since March 2020. The S&P 500 lost 4.4%, the Nasdaq 5.5%, entering a correction, and the Nasdaq 100 6.4%, about $2.3T of market value. Dow Jones data back to 1896 show no worse second session after a midterm. Memory fell hardest: Micron -17.5%, SanDisk -22% and SK hynix -9%. AMD fell 17.3% two days after guiding FY27 revenue up more than 80%, and Nvidia’s 9.3% drop erased its 2026 gain. UBS strategists put about 30% of 2028 data-centre additions at risk, and Hinojosa told CNN Texas needs to “stop what we are doing with data centers until we have measures to protect Texans”. Memory makers have priced a shortage that lasts through 2028, and they are the most exposed if 2028 capacity slips. AMD’s Lisa Su called the market “a little bit short-sighted”, since management can see customers’ 2027 sites, but the selling was in 2028 revenue. Nomura’s McElligott said investors were “shooting the generals” as hedge funds sold the year’s winners. Retail investors were net sellers of $358M of single stocks, the most since 2020, and the VIX jumped as much as 65% to about 28. Trump blamed the election result for “one of the worst days in history”. Bitcoin fell more than 5% to below $76K.

- US futures have bounced since about 18:30 ET, when reports said Anthropic’s end-October ARR topped $80B and was still rising month on month. Asia’s 6-9% falls came after that and mostly reflect Thursday’s US cash close. The selloff had priced supply problems for 2028, from permits to funding, and the ARR report is the first hard demand data since. If 2028 capacity slips while lab revenue keeps compounding, compute already in service becomes scarcer and pricing power shifts back to whoever owns it, which eases the commoditization concern behind the July token price cuts. The funding side is weaker. The WSJ reports Anthropic had been aiming to list in the week of Nov 16 at about $1.5T, or roughly 19x run-rate revenue, with major investors skeptical. Prospective investors say the listing could be delayed after this week’s selloff. Musk said SoftBank, the main sponsor of Stargate and parent of SB Energy, is “defaulting on their turbine orders”. If confirmed, that would be the first public sign of sponsors walking away from long-lead power equipment, the bottleneck since 2024. SB Energy has 1.7GW-IT of unbuilt Texas capacity exposed to the permit freeze Hinojosa reaffirmed on CNN.

- Fed’s Williams said it is an “appropriate time to gather more information” three hours before payrolls, the clearest signal yet that a December hike is not locked in. CME pricing has it at about 70%, down from 83% before Thursday’s 4.4% fall in the S&P 500. He matched that with hawkish language on inflation, calling it “absolutely too high” and too high “for too long”, and saying it is essential to return it to 2% “in a timely manner”. But the conditions he set out argue against an immediate move. He described inflation expectations as well anchored, wage growth as consistent with 2%, tariff effects as “mostly now behind us” and energy pass-through as running “as expected”, with airfares showing it. He also named AI as an inflation source, “at least short term”, through a narrow effect on prices such as chips. That links the Fed’s reaction function to the data-centre buildout. Memory and component prices have been the most visible case, and Apple, AMD and Cirrus have all cited them. A slower 2028 buildout, the risk behind this week’s 12% SOX drop and a 17% fall in Micron, would cool that channel of inflation. Williams also said monetary policy takes “a year or two” to work and that the US faces “unusual shocks to demand and supply”, so a hike now would act in 2027-28, the same window the data-centre slowdown hits. He called the economy “remarkably resilient”, with growth strengthening and a “remarkably stable and solid” labour market, so he is not pre-empting a weak report. As NY Fed president and vice chair, his comments carry weight. In November 2025, his line that there was “room for a further adjustment in the near term” reset December pricing within a session, so speaking in Frankfurt on payrolls morning gives his “gather more information” line extra weight.

- Asia’s chip-heavy markets had their own forced-selling event, and governments stepped in within hours. The Kospi fell as much as 8.8%, with sidecars triggered on both Kospi 200 and Kosdaq 150 futures. Taiwan’s Taiex opened 6.4% lower at 38,916, and the Nikkei fell 6.2% to 57,297 as Japanese and Chinese chip names sold off. Seoul will ease margin rules for three months from Nov 9, which points to leveraged retail accounts being liquidated. Its finance minister said markets are “reacting excessively”. Taipei said it will announce stabilization measures this afternoon. PM Takaichi said it is “hard to tell” whether the chip slide is temporary, and wants proceeds from the BoJ’s accelerated ETF sales to fund economic-security spending, so the BoJ’s own equity sales will be hitting a falling market. GPIF reported a ¥5.25T Q2 loss, its first in six quarters, before this week’s drop, and lifted its domestic bond allocation to 26.49%. China’s MIIT will tighten network access rules for AI agent devices. Japan’s September wages rose 4.6% y/y against 3.8% expected, keeping a BoJ hike in play.

- Rubio told the NYT he is not stepping down and will stay “till the end” of the Trump administration. That rebuts reports, citing 10 sources, that confidant Sergio Gor has spent months preparing for a post-midterm reshuffle that could include Rubio’s job. The denial came hours before Axios reported Trump meeting his national security team on Iran. Rubio is both Secretary of State and national security adviser, so the Iran file stays with the official most associated with the hard line, a day after Vance broke with Trump on foreign policy. Vance is courting a “new right” that wants a different relationship with Israel. Rubio is the administration’s most committed defender of that alliance, and has said he would back Vance for 2028. The Iran strategy is now contested within the administration, between the president’s likely successor and his top diplomat, and Vance’s line costs him nothing while Rubio is the one who has to carry out policy. If the reshuffle is narrowed, attention moves to the Pentagon, where Hegseth has been the public face of the campaign and where precedent puts the post-midterm departure: Rumsfeld in 2006 and Sessions, at Justice, in 2018.

- The BoE hiked as expected but played down a long sequence of further hikes. Bank Rate rose 25bps to 4.00%, its first hike since 2023, on an 8-1 vote with the one dissenter wanting a bigger move. The Bank sees inflation peaking near 5% by mid-2027. Bailey said the move “shouldn’t be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence”, but said overnight that another hike is possible “if energy prices remain high”. Brent is back near $98 from Wednesday’s $94.60 settle, so the Bank’s condition is close to being met again. Halifax house prices fell 0.6% m/m in October and 1.2% y/y, the first annual fall in this cycle, so the hikes are landing on a housing market that is already falling. In the US, CME pricing of a December Fed hike fell to 70% from 83%. Q3 productivity rose 3.6%, claims fell to 189K, and the 10-year traded near 4.84%.

- US payrolls land on a market that has just lost its AI earnings support. Consensus for October private payrolls is 64K, and ADP showed 86K. Fed Board research puts the breakeven pace at only 5-10K by late 2026 as net immigration turns negative, so even a soft headline would mean a tightening labour market. A strong report with equities down 4% would force the Fed to choose between a December hike and protecting markets, and the 13-point drop in hike odds shows which way traders lean. Average hourly earnings matter more than usual given Japan’s 4.6% wage print and the BoE’s 5% inflation peak.

- US earnings after the close were strong outside semiconductors. Cloudflare revenue grew 39%, its fastest in nearly four years, with a record 17.5% operating margin. Atlassian said customers on its AI Teamwork Collection rose 7x y/y and run twice as many agents. Airbnb revenue rose 19%, its fastest in more than three years, with North American nights growing at their fastest pace in four years. Live Nation had its largest amphitheatre month ever in September, and Lyft set ride records over Halloween. Microchip’s data-centre revenue rose 55.7% y/y in September, but its industrial revenue also rose 50.3%, so its order book is not just an AI bet. AppLovin rose 31% on Thursday, while Yelp’s restaurant and retail advertising fell 13% on weak local demand. Software, travel and entertainment held up while chips crashed.

- Brent settled 3.9% higher at $98.29 as Trump weighs three Iran options and CENTCOM prepares to resume strikes. After meeting his national security team on Wednesday and Thursday, his first such meetings since the vote, Trump said “you’ll know soon enough”. Axios says the choice is between resuming strikes, keeping up economic pressure, or a deal with “significant concessions”. He asked whether the US should “go further” to make sure Iran’s nuclear programme is dead, and said he would prefer not to destroy the rest of the country but “we might have to”. CENTCOM is finalising preparations for a resumption of major operations without a new order. Officials flagged the Nov 9 new moon as favourable for strikes, the same day Congress returns, while the Roosevelt carrier group is not due in theatre until at least mid-November. Qatar is circulating a two-day draft. On day one the US would lift the naval blockade and unfreeze some assets in exchange for IAEA access to damaged sites, and on day two Hormuz would reopen, with talks on the enriched-uranium stockpile to follow. Tehran sent a nuclear proposal through Doha but will discuss it only once its seven demands are met, including sanctions relief, frozen assets and war reparations. Rezaei, carrying a message from Mojtaba Khamenei to Putin in Moscow, said Hormuz stays shut until then. The draft puts Hormuz on day two and the uranium question after it, which is the order most likely to split the hawks from Vance. On the water, UKMTO has logged five attacks on vessels since Sunday, and the IRGC said two tankers and a tug caught fire on Thursday after one hit a mine. Moody’s Analytics puts the war’s US cost above $47B, and a UBS economist sees Brent at $80-85 once the war ends, roughly $15 below Thursday’s settle. The cost is already in company results and inflation data. Mitsubishi Motors cut its FY outlook citing fuel prices and price competition, Thai October CPI rose to 3.9%, its fastest since January 2023, and Beijing said it will diversify its oil and gas suppliers.

- Cross-asset: The midterm selloff spread from AI hardware to the whole market: SOX -12%, S&P 500 -4.4%, the Kospi down as much as 8.8%, and Korea and Taiwan intervening. US futures have bounced since the 18:30 ET report that Anthropic’s ARR passed $80B, the first demand data since the selloff began. Memory is the most exposed if 2028 capacity slips, and SoftBank turbine defaults, as Musk describes them, plus doubts over a $1.5T IPO make funding the next constraint. The BoE hiked to 4% and tied any further move to energy prices, with Brent back near $98, while December Fed hike odds fell to 70%. Software, travel and entertainment earnings held up. Payrolls at 08:30 ET (64K private consensus against a 5-10K breakeven) now decide whether the Fed or the market gives way first.
-Asia closed lower with KOSPI underperforming -6.0%. EU indices -0.4% to -1.6%. US futures -0.7% to +1.6%. Gold -0.5%, DXY +0.4%; Commodity: Brent -0.8%, WTI -0.8%; Crypto: BTC -5.1%, ETH -7.5%.

Asia

- Japan Sept Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y: 4.6% v 3.8%e; Real Cash Earnings Y/Y: 2.2% v 1.3%e.

- Philippines Sept Unemployment Rate: 5.4% v 5.3% prior.

- Thailand Oct CPI M/M Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.3%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e (fastest pace since January 2023).

- New Zealand’s general election takes place on Saturday. Polls suggest very close outcome.

- Japan PM Takaichi said the Japanese government should use additional profits from the BOJ’s ETF sales to fund investments.

Global conflict/tensions

- Trump stated that Iran was not doing anything without US approval; Iran needed to decide whether to go further or certify it.

- Pres Trump and his top national security advisers met on Iran for the first time since the election; Trump said to be considering three options: launch new strikes, continue with economic stranglehold, or cut a deal that includes significant concessions to the Iranians.

Americas

- Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) cut the Overnight Rate by 25bps to 6.25% (not expected) to resume Resumes rate cuts (16th overall) under the current easing cycle, Move seen as a one off adjustment of rates. Vote to cut by 25bps was not unanimous (3-2); Heath and Borja voted to keep policy steady. Considered maintaining the reference rate at this level for an extended period to support the convergence of inflation to the 3% target.

- US Sec of State Rubio said to be considering his future in the Trump administration following the Republicans’ heavy midterm election losses.

- Elizabeth Warren was expected to become chair of the Senate Banking Committee.

Trade

- Democrats said to be planning to reverse Pres Trump’s Canada tariffs.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE -1.53% at 10,617.71, DAX -1.39% at 25,965.07, CAC-40 -1.09% at 8,115.81, IBEX-35 -0.45% at 19,364.29, FTSE MIB -0.57% at 50,216.50, SMI -1.73% at 14,709.10, S&P 500 Futures +0.43%].

Market focal points/key themes: European equities slide for a second day on a Wall Street-led tech unwind, with the STOXX 600 down about 1% in the report and the FTSE 100 off 1.5%, the DAX 1.4%, the SMI 1.7%, the CAC 40 1.1% and the FTSE MIB 0.6%, after the Nasdaq’s 5.52% plunge, its worst session in 19 months, confirmed a correction more than 10% below its October 6 high, with the S&P 500 down 4.36% and the Dow down 3.44%. The trigger was regulatory repricing after the Democratic sweep of both chambers, as desks priced tighter Big Tech antitrust scrutiny, heavier federal oversight of AI and local permitting pushback on power- and water-intensive data centres that threatens the capex cycle behind this year’s chip records, which keeps ASM International (-2%) and Siemens Energy (-1%) pressured as investors trim AI-infrastructure beneficiaries. Single-stock moves are violent, with Teleperformance down 15.5% after cutting 2026 like-for-like revenue guidance to a 1.5% to 2.5% decline on Trust & Safety automation, Outokumpu down 13% on a Q4 adjusted EBITDA guide of about €10M against €101M in Q3, and Daimler Truck down 3.5% despite a 73% jump in Q3 adjusted EBIT, while European semiconductor names rebound hard from Thursday’s washout, led by Comet (+14.5%), ams OSRAM (+13%), Infineon (+7.5%), Siltronic (+6.5%), BE Semiconductor (+5.5%) and ASML (+4.5%), alongside TBC Bank (+9%) on record Q3 profit and Rheinmetall (+4%) bouncing after Thursday’s 16% plunge. Europe’s value tilt and light megacap-AI weighting leave the STOXX 600 up more than 10% year to date against about 7% for the S&P 500, with the weekly gain erased after it nearly set a record on Thursday, while Brent’s roughly 20% weekly collapse to below $100 absorbed the BoE’s first hike in three years and roughly half of STOXX 600 constituents have reported, more than half of them beating consensus profit expectations.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: Norwegian Air Shuttle [NAS.NO] +4.0%, Ryanair [RYA.IE] +2.0% (Barclays upgraded both airlines to Overweight, raising Norwegian’s PT to NOK16 from NOK11.50 and Ryanair’s to €29 from €24), International Airlines Group [IAG.UK] +1.0% (strong forward bookings and a 10% interim-dividend increase offset a Q3 operating-profit miss and lower capacity outlook).

Healthcare: Attendo [ATT.SE] +7.0% (Q3 adjusted EBITA of SEK557m beat the SEK516m consensus and the care provider announced a SEK300m buyback), Attendo [ATT.SE] -2.0% (shares traded lower despite Q3 adjusted EBITA beating consensus by about 8% and management calling it the group’s strongest quarter to date).

Technology: Comet Holding [COTN.CH] +14.5%, ams OSRAM [AMS.CH] +13.0%, Infineon [IFX.DE] +7.5%, Siltronic [WAF.DE] +6.5%, BE Semiconductor [BESI.NL] +5.5%, ASML [ASML.NL] +4.5% (European semiconductor and equipment names rebounded sharply from Thursday’s AI-driven washout), Amadeus [AMS.ES] +0.5% (Q3 revenue rose 5.5% and adjusted diluted EPS increased 11.8% at constant currency, although 2026 guidance is tracking toward the lower end), Amadeus IT Group [AMS.ES] +2.5% (Q3 revenue grew 5.5% and adjusted diluted EPS rose 11.8% at constant currency, with full-year guidance retained at the lower end), Kontron [KTN.AT] +0.5% (reported nine-month results and confirmed its full-year guidance), Rightmove [RMV.UK] -2.0% (cut 2026 revenue growth guidance to 6%-7% from 6-8% and lowered ARPA expectations, outweighing an EPS-growth upgrade to at least 7% from at least 5%), ASM International [ASM.NL] -2.0% (continued to lag as investors reduced AI-capex exposure following the sharp US semiconductor selloff).

Consumer staples: Orkla [ORK.NO] +2.0% (Q3 adjusted earnings topped expectations despite a currency-driven decline in revenue), Haypp Group [HAYPP.SE] -2.0% (Q3 adjusted operating profit missed consensus by 12%, with marketing investment and a US legal provision weighing on margins).

Industrials/defence: Rheinmetall [RHM.DE] +4.0% (rebounded after Thursday’s 16% plunge triggered by a second cut to its 2026 sales target), Teleperformance [TEP.FR] -15.5% (cut 2026 like-for-like revenue guidance to a 1.5%-2.5% decline as Trust & Safety automation, offshoring and LanguageLine staffing issues weighed), Daimler Truck [DTG.DE] -3.5% (sold despite a 73% jump in Q3 adjusted EBIT after merely confirming full-year guidance and reporting a lower Mercedes-Benz Trucks margin), Kingspan [KRX.IE] -2.0% (Deutsche Bank downgraded to Hold from Buy while raising its price target to €108 from €101), Siemens Energy [ENR.DE] -1.0% (remained under pressure as investors continued reducing exposure to AI and data-centre infrastructure beneficiaries after the overnight US technology rout).

Financials: TBC Bank Group [TBCG.UK] +9.0% (record Q3 net profit rose 10% year on year, ROE reached 23.2%, and the bank launched a GEL50m buyback), Munich Re [MUV2.DE] -2.0% (JPMorgan downgraded to Neutral from Overweight with a €590 price target).

Materials: Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] +2.5% (approved a $144m investment advancing the next phase of the Resolution Copper project), Outokumpu [OUT1V.FI] -13.0% (guided Q4 adjusted EBITDA to roughly €10m versus €101m in Q3, with deliveries expected to fall 5%-15% amid weak European demand), DSM-Firmenich [DSFIR.NL] -2.5% (gave back part of Thursday’s results rally as investors judged the upgraded outlook already reflected in the valuation).

Speakers

- Bank of England (BOE) Gov Bailey reiterated view that if energy prices remained high, then another rate hike possible.

- ECB's Lane (Ireland, chief economist) noted that monetary policy job was to contain spillover; We've had tightening in financial condition. Energy inflation is going to influence wage negotiations and setting of prices across economy.

- Fed's Williams (moderate, voter) noted that the US was facing unusual shocks to demand and supply; Inflation was absolutely too high. Economy remarkably resilient. Stable and solid labor market. Monetary policy takes a year or two to take effect, we have to be forward looking.

- Poland Central Bank's Zarzecki (hawk) stated that did not rule out rate increase at the next decision Dec.

- Poland Central Bank (NBP) Wnorowski saw significant chance of rate hike in Dec; should begin with 25bps move. Noted that Council was more divided on rate path than before. Noted that the PLN currency (Zloty) level was not a concern.

- Thailand Central Bank (BOT) noted that Oct CPI was in-line with forecasts; saw limited risks of persistently high inflation.

- Qatar Emir said to receive phone call from President Trump to discuss de-escalation efforts in region.

Currencies

- FX price action saw a safe-haven flow theme following US and Korean tech sector carnage. Traders turned their attention to the upcoming US payroll report due out on Fri morning. Dealers noting that a disappointing payrolls could offset considerably hawkish Fed outlook on rates. Markets currently see approx. 70% chance of a 25bps hike at Dec meeting and 75% chance of a hike at the Jan 2027 meeting if paused in Dec (64% for 25bps hike and 11% for 50bps hike).

- EUR/USD at 1.1185 by mid-session as the greenback benefitted from risk aversion flows.

- GBP/USD off its best levels of the week despite the BOE rate hike from Thurs.

- USD/JPY continued to hover around the 158 area.

- The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.22%, France 10-year Oat at 4.75% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.10%; 10-year Treasury yield: 4.83%; 10-year JGB: 2.62%.

Economic data

- (SE) Sweden Oct Maklarstatistik Housing Prices: 4.2% v 3.9% prior.

- (DE) Germany Sept Industrial Production M/M: +0.7% v -0.1%e; Y/Y:0.4% v 1.2%e.

- (UK) Oct Lloyds House Price Index M/M: -0.6% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.2% v 0.0% prior.

- (NO) Norway Sept Industrial Production M/M: 1/0% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.8% v -0.6% prior.

- (NO) Norway Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.0% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 0.4% prior.

- (DK) Denmark Sept Industrial Production M/M: 4.8 v 1.0% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Oct Budget Balance (SEK): -14.5B v -23.0B prior.

- (MY) Malaysia end-Oct Foreign Reserves: $132.6B v $13.21B prior.

- 02:30 (HU) Hungary Sept Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.3% v 3.5%e.

- (CN) Weekly Shanghai Deliverable Copper Inventories (SHFE): 33.9K v 44.6K tons prior.

- (TH) Thailand Foreign Reserves w/e Oct 30th: $272.8B v $274.4B prior.

- (FR) France Sept Trade Balance: -€7.3B v -€6.0B prior; Current Account Balance: -€2.7B v -€1.4B prior.

- (FR) France Q3 Preliminary Wages Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.7% prior.

- (ES) Spain Sept Industrial Production M/M: 0.8% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.3% prior; Industrial Output (unadj) Y/Y: 2.5% v 1.3% prior.

- (CH) Swiss Oct Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 758.5B v 770.3B prior.

- (CH) Swiss Oct SECO Consumer Confidence: -44.9 v -35.5e.

- (AT) Austria Oct Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.2% v +1.9% prior; Y/Y: 10.0% v 10.2% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Sept Industrial Output Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.0%e; Construction Output Y/Y: +1.6% v -1.4% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Sept National Trade Balance (CZK): 23.7B v 12.1Be.

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Oct 30th (RUB): 22.95T v 23.03T prior.

- (HK) Hong Kong Oct Foreign Reserves: $440.5B v $432.9B prior.

- (IS) Iceland Oct Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): 70.3B v -44.9B prior.

- (UN) FAO Oct World Food Price Index: 133.9 v 135.6 prior.

- (EU) Eurozone Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.7% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.6%e.

Fixed income issuance

- (IN) India sold total INR360B vs. INR360B indicated in 2041 and 2076 bonds.

Looking ahead

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Oct Live Register Monthly Change: No est v -1.0K prior; Level: No est v 172.2K prior.

- 06:00 (CL) Chile Oct CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 4.6%e v 4.1% prior.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £5.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£1.0B, £2.0B and £2.5B respectively).

- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell OLO Bonds via Ori Auction.

- 06:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed).

- 06:00 (CH) SNB’s Tschudin at ECB conference.

- 06:30 (IN) India Forex Reserve w/e Oct 30th: No est v $719.8B prior.

- 07:15 (UK) BOE’s Pill (chief economist).

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Oct Official Reserves: No est v €295.4B prior.

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Oct Minutes (2 decisions ago).

- 08:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Oct 30th: No est v $729.6B prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (US) Oct Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +70Ke v +29K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +65Ke v +46K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +7Ke v +9K prior.

- 08:30 (US) Oct Unemployment Rate: 4.2%e v 4.2% prior; Underemployment Rate: 7.5%e v 7.6% prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.8%e v 61.8% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Oct Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 3.0% prior; Average Weekly Hours All Employees: 34.4e v 34.4 prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct Net Change in Employment: +15.0Ke v -68.3K prior; Unemployment Rate: 6.5%e v 6.5% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v -35.4K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -32.9K prior; Participation Rate: 64.9%e v 64.8% prior; Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.3% prior.

- 09:10 (US) Fed’s Musalem.

- 09:30 (TR) Turkey Oct Cash Budget Balance (TRY): No est v -467.2B prior.

- 10:00 (CA) Canada Oct Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (seasonally adj): No est v 58.2 prior.

- 10:00 (US) Nov Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 48.0e v 48.0 prior.

- 11:00 (JP) BOJ Gov Ueda at IMF event.

- 12:15 (US) Fed’s Bowman.

- 13:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close (Fitch on Greece; DBRS on Germany).

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count data.

- 13:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Trade Balance: $9.2Be v $7.7B prior; Total Exports: 37.9Be v $34.4B prior; Total Imports: $28.7Be v $26.7B prior.

- 15:00 (US) Sept Consumer Credit: $13.8Be v $8.3B prior.