Indian rupee opened at 67.33 after closing the previous session at 67.27 levels. The intra-day range is seen between 67.20-67.50 levels.
Australian dollar lower after CPI
The Australian dollar fell against its US counterpart after inflation in Q2 rose compared to contraction of 0.2% in the previous quarter. A better-than-expected inflation has raised concerns that the RBA at its August may think twice before considering to cut rates. But our view is that one month's number may not be enough and the RBA could consider cutting rates in its August meeting. Until then the Australian dollar is expected to trade with high volatility but with a slight negative bias.
USDJPY trims gains after MOF denies report of 50 year debt issuance
USDJPY is experiencing high volatility. First the pair surge towards 106.54 after news hit the wires that PM abe will announce stimulus detail today and the package size would be 27 trillion yen. Later, Japan's finance ministry denied a report that it was mulling the launch of 50-year government bonds which has pulled back the pair on downside.
U.S. consumer confidence steady; new home sales near eight-and-a-half-year high
U.S. consumer confidence held steady in July and new single-family home sales hit their highest level in nearly 8-1/2 years in June, suggesting sustained momentum in the economy that could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year. The Conference Board said its consumer index was 97.3 this month after a reading of 97.4 in June. Economists had expected the index to drop to 95.9 in July.
Bonds
Indian government bonds trading nearly unchanged ahead of Fed's monetary policy decision later today. Benchmark bond now at INR 102.27, yielding 7.25%m against INR 102.28 previous close. RBI to auction INR 150 billion of T-bills today. Indian benchmark yield pegged in 7.23%-7.27% band today.
Outlook
Intraday Trend: The USD/INR pair is likely to quote in the range of 67.20-67.50 levels.
Exporters were advised yesterday to cover their short term bookings in a range of 67.40-67.50. (They are suggested to discuss their positions with their respective advisors).
Importers are advised to cover their short term booking in a range of 67.10 to 67.15 levels. (They are suggested to discuss their positions with their respective advisors).
Short term range (7-15 days): 66.75-67.80
Medium term range (3-6 months): 65.80 – 70.00
Intraday view on Major Pairs
EURUSD - European Central Bank purchases of government bonds are set to significantly outstrip new debt sales until the end of the year, helping pin yields near record lows in a trend strategists say will persist for months. Technically, the pair is expected to hold support of 1.0950 and potential for rebound upto 1.1030-1.1080 levels.
INTRADAY RANGE |
SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) |
MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) |
||||||
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
1.0950 |
1.1030 |
Slightly Bullish |
1.0800 |
1.1300 |
Bearish |
1.0800 |
1.1450 |
Bearish |
GBPUSD - Sterling hit a two-week low on Tuesday after a Bank of England policymaker said a batch of weak UK data would be "very material" for the bank's next policy meeting, having last week said he needed more evidence of economic weakness before backing an interest rate cut. Today, market participants are likely to keep an eye on UK Prelim GDP which is expected to come at 0.5% against previous 0.4%. Technically, the pair is likely to quote in the range of 1.3050-1.3250 band.
INTRADAY RANGE |
SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) |
MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) |
||||||
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
1.3050 |
1.3200 |
Slightly Bullish |
1.2630 |
1.3900 |
Bearish |
1.2800 |
1.4400 |
Bearish |
USDJPY - Today, USDJPY rallied till 106.50 after news hit the wires that PM abe will announce stimulus detail today and the package size would be 27 trillion yen. However, the major quickly faded the spike after the Japanese Finance minister came out on the wires and denied reports that it was considering issuing 50 year bonds as a part of the stimulus.
INTRADAY RANGE |
SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) |
MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) |
||||||
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
104.50 |
107.50 | Bullish |
99.00 |
109 |
Bullish |
96.60 |
109.30 |
Bullish |
AUDUSD - Today, AUDUSD plunge from the day high of 0.7565 and fell sharply after Australia inflation rate drop to 1% in Q2. It was the lowest inflation rate since the second quarter 1999. Technically, the trend is down in AUDUSD. 0.7570 could act as an immediate resistance and it could move lower towards 0.7400 levels.
INTRADAY RANGE |
SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) |
MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) |
||||||
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
0.7400 |
0.7570 |
Bullish |
0.7280 |
0.7800 |
Bullish |
0.7150 |
0.7720 |
Bearish |
USDCAD - USDCAD extended the upmove and hits 15- week high amid oil prices continue to weaken. Mraket participant will keep an eye on Oil prices movement and Fed monetary policy to gauge a view on USDCAD over near term. Technically, as long as 1.3100 holds on downside bias is positive and it could move higher towards 1.3300 levels.
INTRADAY RANGE |
SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) |
MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) |
||||||
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
1.3150 |
1.3300 |
Bullish |
1.2650 |
1.3400 |
Bullish |
1.2450 |
1.3320 |
Bullish |
Gold - For the ninth consecutive session Gold traded within a narrow range of $1,300 and 1,340 ahead of the Fed policy decision. But volatility could increase in the yellow metal post the policy decision as the Fed chair could provide cues regarding further rate hike. For the day, the yellow metal could continue to trade in the range of $1,300 and $1,340.
INTRADAY RANGE |
SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) |
MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) |
||||||
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
1300 |
1340 |
Bearish |
1275 |
1420 |
Bullish |
1120 |
1450 |
Bullish |
Crude: Yesterday, crude hit the lowest level in three-months after API data showed slower drawdown in crude inventory compared to expectation. Today EIA inventory number will be keenly eyed and will be important to determine a trend for crude. For the day, crude is expected to take support around $41.50 level and on the higher side crude will face resistance around $43.80 levels.
INTRADAY RANGE |
SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) |
MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) |
||||||
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
41.50 |
43.80 |
Slightly Bearish |
42.00 |
51.65 |
Bullish |
35.00 |
56.00 |
Bullish |
Dollar Index: The dollar against its major crosses fell for the second successive session and ahead of the Fed policy decision market participants would avoid to take any aggressive position as volatility could increase post the decision. For the day, crude inventory, Fed policy decision and durable good order data will be keenly watched.
INTRADAY RANGE |
SHORT TERM (Upto 3 months) |
MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) |
||||||
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
Support |
Resistance |
Trend |
96.50 |
97.50 |
Bullish |
93.00 |
99.00 |
Bullish |
92.50 |
101.00 |
Bearish |
This report has been prepared by IFA Global. IFA Global shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. IFA Global nor any of directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be held liable for any damages whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. No liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising (whether direct or consequential) from any use of the information contained in this report. This statement, prepared specifically at the addressee(s) request is for information contained in this statement. All market prices, service taxes and other levies are subject to change without notice. Also the value, income, appreciation, returns, yield of any of the securities or any other financial instruments mentioned in this statement are based on current market conditions and as per the last details available with us and subject to change. The levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation can change. The securities / units / other instruments mentioned in this report may or may not be live at the time of statement generation. Please note, however, that some data has been derived from sources that we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Please review this information for accuracy as IFA Global cannot be responsible for omitted or misstated data. IFA Global is not liable for any delay in the receipt of this statement. This information is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject IFA Global to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. The information given in this report is as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. IFA Global reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. However, IFA Global is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Nevertheless, IFA Global is committed to providing independent and transparent information to its client and would be happy to provide any information in response to specific client queries. Neither IFA Global nor any of its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. The information provided in these report remains, unless otherwise stated, the copyright of IFA Global. All layout, design, original artwork, concepts and other Intellectual Properties, remains the property and copyright IFA Global and may not be used in any form or for any purpose whatsoever by any party without the express written permission of the copyright holders.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD flirts with daily tops near 1.0730
The continuation of the selling pressure in the Greenback now lends further oxygen to the risk complex, encouraging EUR/USD to revisit the area of daily highs near 1.0730.
USD/JPY looks stable around 156.50 as suspicious intervention lingers
USD/JPY remains well on the defensive in the mid-156.00s albeit off daily lows, as market participants continue to digest the still-unconfirmed FX intervention by the Japanese MoF earlier in the Asian session.
Gold holds steady above $2,330 to start the week
Gold fluctuates in a relatively tight channel above $2,330 on Monday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield corrects lower and helps XAU/USD limit its losses ahead of this week's key Fed policy meeting.
Week Ahead: Bitcoin could surprise investors this week Premium
Two main macroeconomic events this week could attempt to sway the crypto markets. Bitcoin (BTC), which showed strength last week, has slipped into a short-term consolidation.
Five Fundamentals for the week: Fed fears, Nonfarm Payrolls, Middle East promise an explosive week Premium
Higher inflation is set to push Fed Chair Powell and his colleagues to a hawkish decision. Nonfarm Payrolls are set to rock markets, but the ISM Services PMI released immediately afterward could steal the show.