Commodity currencies have been in the decline this year against US Dollar as a result of market’s expectation of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle. A falling Australian Dollar will make imported products more expensive, resulting in price increase and adding to existing inflationary pressure. The higher the inflation rate, the faster the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) need to bring forward the first increase in cash rate. The Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge rose by 0.3 per cent in November to be up 3.1 per cent on the year. A sustained build up in inflation will bring forward the tightening cycle which then should eventually provide support in the Australian Dollar. In the meantime however, the Australian Dollar can continue to see selling pressure against US Dollar as a result of the divergence in monetary policy.

AUDUSD Daily Elliott Wave Chart

Daily chart of AUDUSD above shows a 5 swing incomplete sequence from February 25, 2021 high favoring further downside in the pair. The entire decline can be counted as a double three Elliott Wave structure where wave ((W)) ended at 0.7106. Pair then rallied and ended wave ((X)) at 0.7556. It has resumed lower and broken below the third swing, suggesting the next leg lower has started. This pattern suggests further downside in the pair as long as rally fails below 0.755.  Potential target lower for swing #7 is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension of the swing #3 which comes at 0.645 – 0.666.

AUDUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

1 Hour Asia chart above shows that pair could see another leg lower to complete wave 5 which then should end wave (A) and complete cycle from October 29, 2021 high. Afterwards, pair should rally in wave (B) to correct cycle from October 29 high before turning lower again. Alternatively, pair might have already ended wave (A) and in the process of doing larger degree rally to correct cycle from October 29, 2021 high before it resumes lower again.

FURTHER DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER CONCERNING RISK, RESPONSIBILITY AND LIABILITY Trading in the Foreign Exchange market is a challenging opportunity where above average returns are available for educated and experienced investors who are willing to take above average risk. However, before deciding to participate in Foreign Exchange (FX) trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of xperience and risk appetite. Do not invest or trade capital you cannot afford to lose. EME PROCESSING AND CONSULTING, LLC, THEIR REPRESENTATIVES, AND ANYONE WORKING FOR OR WITHIN WWW.ELLIOTTWAVE- FORECAST.COM is not responsible for any loss from any form of distributed advice, signal, analysis, or content. Again, we fully DISCLOSE to the Subscriber base that the Service as a whole, the individual Parties, Representatives, or owners shall not be liable to any and all Subscribers for any losses or damages as a result of any action taken by the Subscriber from any trade idea or signal posted on the website(s) distributed through any form of social-media, email, the website, and/or any other electronic, written, verbal, or future form of communication . All analysis, trading signals, trading recommendations, all charts, communicated interpretations of the wave counts, and all content from any media form produced by www.Elliottwave-forecast.com and/or the Representatives are solely the opinions and best efforts of the respective author(s). In general Forex instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose some or all of their initial margin funds. All content provided by www.Elliottwave-forecast.com is expressed in good faith and is intended to help Subscribers succeed in the marketplace, but it is never guaranteed. There is no “holy grail” to trading or forecasting the market and we are wrong sometimes like everyone else. Please understand and accept the risk involved when making any trading and/or investment decision. UNDERSTAND that all the content we provide is protected through copyright of EME PROCESSING AND CONSULTING, LLC. It is illegal to disseminate in any form of communication any part or all of our proprietary information without specific authorization. UNDERSTAND that you also agree to not allow persons that are not PAID SUBSCRIBERS to view any of the content not released publicly. IF YOU ARE FOUND TO BE IN VIOLATION OF THESE RESTRICTIONS you or your firm (as the Subscriber) will be charged fully with no discount for one year subscription to our Premium Plus Plan at $1,799.88 for EACH person or firm who received any of our content illegally through the respected intermediary’s (Subscriber in violation of terms) channel(s) of communication.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD retains gains and trades around 1.1350

EUR/USD stays afloat in the positive territory near 1.1350 as the greenback struggles to gather strength on retreating US T-bond yields. Focus remains on mounting inflationary pressures and upcoming central banks’ announcements.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD holds its ground in the positive territory above 1.3600

GBP/USD holds above 1.3600 in the second half of the day on Wednesday supported by the modest selling pressure surrounding the dollar. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the red in the early American session and the US Dollar Index edges lower toward 95.50.

GBP/USD News

Gold: Bullish breakout exposes November monthly high at 1,877.15

Spot gold trades above $1,840 a troy ounce, at levels last seen in November 2021. The bright metal soared through the American session amid persistent concerns about inflation and volatile US government bond yields. 

Gold News

Shiba Inu price has a good chance to surge to $0.000040

A brief technical and on-chain analysis on Shiba Inu price. FXStreet's analysts evaluate why SHIB could advance further. 

Read more

Yields everywhere are rising too far, too fast: Could we expect them to settle down?

Today we get housing starts and permits, but expectations are running low because of Omicron and bad weather. It’s not exactly an inspiring bit of data, anyway. In fact, the juicy data is from Canada, CPI today and retail sales on Friday. There is still chatter about a BoC hike next week. 

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures