AUD/USD Forecast: trapped between USD weakness and nose-diving equities

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7097

• Australia's Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations' gauge remained at 4.0% in October.
• AUD/USD developing a double bottom at 0.7040, neckline of the figure at 0.7130, the weekly high.

The AUD/USD pair fell to 0.7042 late Thursday amid nose-diving equities, recovering from such low, despite the risk-off mood prevailed through the Asian session and extended into the European opening. The Australian Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations' gauge remained at 4.0% in October, according to the overnight release, failing to boost the pair, as the bounce from the mentioned low seems more related to technical causes, given that the 0.7040 level is the yearly low. Despite still trading in the red, European indexes are off their daily lows, while base metals are firmly up amid easing US Treasury yields, all of which helps the pair further up, now nearing the 0.7100 figure.

The greenback remains weak in all fronts ahead of the release of US September inflation data, expected to have advanced within familiar levels, up by 0.2% MoM and by 2.4% YoY. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 5 are expected to come at 206K from the previous 207K. The figures, however, have little chances of affecting prices.

The pair could be developing a double bottom at 0.7040 with the neckline of the figure being this week high of 0.7130. The short-term picture leans the risk toward the upside, as the pair recovered above the 23.6% retracement of its latest decline, now the immediate support at 0.7085, while the Momentum indicator bounced from its 100 level, as the RSI consolidates around 52. Struggling with the 0.7100, a more solid advance could be expected on a break above 0.7140, the 50% retracement of the mentioned decline.

Support levels: 0.7085 0.7040 0.7010  

Resistance levels: 0.7140 0.7175 0.7200

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