USD on soft footing, holiday mode kicking in, Novo Nordisk rallying after Wegovy pill approval

Notes/observations

- Active US Economic calendar into the holidays; including Q3 GDP reading.

- USD heading into year-end on soft footing while precious metals probe all-time highs.

- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov confirmed that Russia and the United States have held new consultations on bilateral issues, but stated that the main issues remain unresolved.

- In his speech, Pres Trump reiterated any land strikes will not be limited to Venezuela and that Colombia's Pres Petro is no friend to the US.

- Overnight, press reported citing BOJ sources that there is a slim chance the BOJ could hike rates again as soon as April 2026.

- Novo Nordisk shares rallying over 5% after Wegovy pill was approved in the US as first oral GLP-1 for weight management.

Asia

- Australia Central Bank (RBA) Dec Minutes noted that the Board judged it too early to know if rise in inflation would prove persistent
Discussed circumstances rate rise might be needed in 2026.

- Japan Fin Min Katayama stated that would not comment on FX levels nor interest rates but ready to take action. Stated that officials had a “free hand” to intervene in FX under the September US‑Japan accord.

- Japan likely to assume long-term interest rates of ~3% for FY26 budget, highest in 20 years.

- Bank of Korea (BOK) Dep Gov Chang: Expects one-sided FX moves on ease going forward; cites policy measures.

Global conflict/tensions

- Russia govt spokesperson: Talks between Russia and the United States in Miami on ways to resolve the conflict in Ukraine should not be seen as a breakthrough.

- US Pres Trump stated that had spoken with US oil companies about a post-Maduro Venezuela; Reiterated land strikes will not be limited to Venezuela. Had to have Greenland; We don't need it for minerals or oil; We need it for security.

Europe

- UK Dec Lloyds Business Barometer: 47 v 42 prior; Own Price Expectations: 59 v 60 prior.

- ECB's Schnabel (Germany): One should not expect a rate hike at present or in the foreseeable future; Rates will probably stay stable for quite some time.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.3% at 588.36, FTSE +0.1% at 9,874, DAX +0.2% at 24,330, CAC-40 -0.1% at 8,111, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 17,109, FTSE MIB -0.1% at 44,535, SMI +0.4% at 13,218, S&P 500 Futures +0.08%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices opened mixed and failed to gain direction in thin trading; among outperforming sectors are telecom and utilities; underperforming sectors include materials and consumer discretionary; Elis acquires Adrett; focus on US Q3 GDP later in the day; no major earnings expected in the upcoming US session.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: L'Oreal [OR.FR] -0.5% (Nestle regularly reviews stake with the Board of Directors).

- Financials: Unicredit [UCG.IT] -0.5% (analyst downgrade).

- Healthcare: Novo Nordisk [NOVOB.DK] +7.5% (Wegovy pill approved in the US as first oral GLP-1 for weight management).

- Industrials: SAAB [SABB.SE] +3.0% (orders).

- Technology: IDEX Biometrics [IDEX.NO] +31.0% (significant order).

Speakers

- Hungary Econ Min Nagy saw room for interest rate cuts to help budget. Should not artificially keep HUF currency strong.

- Thailand Central Bank (BOT) Gov Vitai, Finance Ministry joint statement noted that the THB currency (Baht) was rising faster than regional peers which was not in line with fundamentals and driven by gold trading.

Currencies/fixed income

- USD on soft footing among the major pairs.

- EUR/USD tested 1-week high above 1.1780. ECB speak continue to hint rates are appropriate. Markets see next move a hike sometime down the road.

- USD/JPY probed below the 156 level as Japan Finance Ministry talked tougher on the FX front.

- 10-year German Bund yield at 2.87%, France 10-year Oat at 3.57% and 10-year Gilt yield at 4.51% 10-year Treasury yield: 4.15%; 10-year JGB: 2.02%.

Economic data

- (EU) Euro Zone Nov EU27 New Car Registrations: 2.1% v 5.8% prior.

- (FI) Finland Nov Unemployment Rate: 9.7% v 9.6% prior.

- (DE) Germany Nov Import Price Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v -2.2%e.

- (SE) Sweden Nov PPI M/M: 1.2% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v +0.4% prior.

- (NO) Norway Nov Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.9% prior.

- (HU) Hungary Q3 Current Account Balance: €0.9B v €0.9Be.

- (ES) Spain Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.6% prelim; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.8% prelim.

- (ES) Spain Nov PPI M/M: -0.4% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: -2.5% v +0.7% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Dec Consumer Confidence: 111.1 v 111.2e; Business Confidence: 98.0 v 100.1e.

- (TW) Taiwan Nov Export Orders Y/Y: 39.5% v 31.7%e v 25.1% prior.

- (CH) Swiss Dec UBS Expectations Survey: 6.2 v 12.2 prior.

- (PL) Poland Nov Unemployment Rate: 5.6% v 5.7%e.

Fixed income issuance

- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold €M vs. €400M indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v 1.78% prior; bid-to-cover: x v 1.84x prior.

Looking ahead

- (HU) Hungary PM Orban Year-End press conference.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Dec CPI M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior.

- 05:30 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills.

- 05:40 (UK) BOE allotment in 6-month GBP-enhanced liquidity repo operation (ILTR).

- 05:40 (UK) BOE 7-day short-term repo operation (STR).

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior.

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil mid-Dec IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.4%e v 4.5% prior.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Trade Balance: $0.5Be v $0.6B prior.

- 07:00 (RU) Russia announcement on upcoming OFZ bond issuance (held on Wed).

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:15 (US) ADP Preliminary Employment Change for 4-weeks ending Dec 5th: No est v +16.3K prior.

- 08:30 (US) Q3 GDP Annualized Q/Q (2nd reading): 3.2%e v 3.8% advance; Personal Consumption: 2.7%e v 2.5% advance.

- 08:30 (US) Q3 GDP Price Index (2nd reading): 2.6%e v 2.1% advance; Core Price Index: 2.9%e v2.6 % advance.

- 08:30 (US) Oct Preliminary Durable Goods Orders: -1.5%e v +0.5% prior; Durables (ex-transportation): 0.3%e v 0.6% prior; Capital Goods Orders (non-defense/ex-aircraft): 0.3%e v 0.9% prior; Capital Goods Shipments (non-defense/ex-aircraft): 0.3%e v 0.9% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Dec Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: -15.0e v -16.3 prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct GDP M/M: -0.3%e v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.3%e v 1.0% prior.

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data.

- 09:15 (US) Nov Industrial Production M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Manufacturing Production: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Capacity Utilization 75.9%e v 75.9% prior.

- 10:00 (US) Dec Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: -10e v -15 prior.

- 10:00 (US) Dec Consumer Confidence: 91.0e v 88.7 prior.

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Oct Trade Balance: -$1.8Be v -$1.2B prior; Total Imports: $6.5Bev $6.1B prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 6-Week Bills.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 52-Week Bills.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 2-Year FRN Reopening.

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 5-Year Notes.

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count data.

- 13:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Summary of Deliberations.

- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Q3 Current Account Balance: No est v -$3.0B prior.

- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Wages M/M: No est v 2.2% prior.

- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Dec Consumer Confidence: No est v 112.4 prior.

- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories:

- 18:50 (JP) Japan Nov PPI Services Y/Y: 2.6%e v 2.7% prior.

- 22:00 (TH) Thailand to sell combined THB22B in 2040 and 2077 bonds.

- 22:35 (CN) China to sell CNY60B in 6-month bills.

- 22:35 (CN) China to sell CNY88B in 2032 bonds.