AUD/USD: consolidative phase extends, upward favored

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7772

  • Mixed Chinese data and positive RBA Minutes kept the Aussie on-hold.
  • Strong equities and soft commodities sending mixed signals.

The Aussie was little affected by big macroeconomic news released overnight, trading against the greenback in a limited range just below the 0.7800 figure. China released several market-mover headlines, which were only enough to send the pair lower some 20 pips, a movement that was quickly reverted by buyers. China reported that annual growth, during the first quarter of this year was of 6.8%, beating market's forecast of 6.7%, and matching the last figure of the last quarter of 2017. Retail Sales were up in February by 10.1%, beating market's expectations of 9.9% although in the same month, Industrial Production grew by less-than-expected, up 6.0% vs. the expected 6.2%. The RBA released the Minutes of its latest meeting, as usual, with few surprises but generally positive, stating that the next move will likely be up, although that won't occur in the near term.

The pair retreats ahead of the US opening, as disappointing macroeconomic readings from Europe and the UK hurt demand for high-yielding currencies, but for the AUD/USD pair, the decline is well limited. Socks are up, but commodities are down, providing mixed signals for it, although the downward potential seems well limited as long as the pair holds above the 0.7740 level.

Short term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the pair is neutral, as its hovering around a marginally bullish 20 SMA, while technical indicators lack clear directional strength and hold around their mid-lines. The mentioned 0.7740 level is a major Fibonacci support, and buyers seem determinate to defend it. The pair will regain its bullish strength on a break above 0.7820, the next Fibonacci resistance.

Support levels: 0.7740 0.7700 0.7665

Resistance levels: 0.7785 0.7820 0.7845

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

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