AUD/USD analysis: upside capped by dominant bearish trend

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7575

RBA Minutes dovish, but optimistic Lowe backed the Aussie.
Correcting higher but long-term bearish trend intact.

The AUD/USD pair trades around 0.7575 ahead of Wall Street's opening, bouncing from a fresh multi-month low of 0.7531 set at the beginning of the day. The Aussie remained under selling pressure during Asian trading hours, as the Minutes of the November RBA meeting offered the expected dovish tone as policymakers highlighted their concerns over soft wage growth. The later recovery was triggered by comments from Governor Lowe, who spoke about the recent developments in the local and global economy at the Australia Business Economists Annual Dinner, as he said that interest rates will likely rise eventually, pledging for patience before reaching their inflation goal. Despite remarking that an accommodative monetary policy remains appropriate, the market welcomed the optimistic stance.

From a technical point of view, the dominant bearish trend remains unaltered with this 40 pips' recovery, and the 4 hours chart shows that the positive momentum is beginning to fade, as technical indicators lost their upward slope after entering positive territory, with the RSI currently flat around its mid-line. In the same chart, the price is a handful of pips above an anyway bearish 20 SMA, also reflecting limited buying interest. The daily high was set at 0.7585, now the immediate resistance, followed by 0.7620.

Support levels: 0.7535 0.7490 0.7450

Resistance levels: 0.7585 0.7620 0.7660

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.