AUD/USD analysis: neutral between 0.7300 and 0.7490

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7418

Aussie still depending on trade-war headlines for direction.
Bounce in base metals and solid Australian data barely enough to keep AUD/USD around 0.7400.

The Australian dollar benefited from dollar's weakness by the end of the week, although the AUD/USD pair closed flat around 0.7400 for a second consecutive week. News coming from Australia were quite encouraging these last few days, although fears of an escalating trade war and soft Chinese figures weighed more. The softer tone of equities limited the advance of the Aussie, benefited, however, by recovering base metals, which bounced from multi-month lows on broad dollar's weakness. The Australian macroeconomic calendar has little to offer this week, although the country will release Q2 inflation next Wednesday, expected up 2.2% YoY from the previous 1.9%. The pair has been ranging for the last five weeks, with bulls defending the 0.7300 region, as strong bounces have come on approaches to this last. The daily chart offers a neutral technical stance, as the pair has been moving for almost three weeks around a flat 20 DMA, while technical indicators lack clear directional strength, stuck around their midlines. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the pair is developing below a mild bearish 200 SMA and above directionless 20 and 100 SMA, while technical indicators eased, but hold in positive territory. The pair has an immediate resistance in the 0.7440/50 region but would need to clearly break July's high at 0.7483 to gain further upward traction.

Support levels: 0.7370 0.7330 0.7300

Resistance levels: 0.7445 0.7490 0.7520

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

Gold tumbles as blockbuster US NFP lift US Dollar, Treasury yields

Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply on Friday, snapping a two-day recovery after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised strongly to the upside. The metal briefly climbed above $4,500 on Thursday, gaining nearly 2%, but has since erased a large part of that advance.

The week ahead: Dollar at a crossroads as CPI and ECB take centre stage

With the summer finally over, investors returned with a strong appetite for action. Following last week’s strong performance, the US dollar has taken a back seat so far this week, as oil, the yen and sovereign bond yields monopolized market interest.

CFTC report: Oil rebound offsets broader positioning retreat

The week in one sentence: Speculative positioning became more defensive in the week ending September 1. Yen short positioning recorded the largest deterioration, while Gold length also retreated. Oil buying returned alongside stronger prices, and Canadian Dollar and Euro positioning improved, although Euro flows diverged from weaker spot prices.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.