AUD/USD analysis: heading into RBA's decision at yearly lows

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7315

RBA expected to keep rates on hold for a 23rd consecutive month.
Softer-than-expected Australian and Chinese data hit the Aussie.

The Australian dollar heads toward the RBA monetary policy meeting trading at its lowest for the year against the greenback, just a few pips above the 0.7300 figure. The Aussie suffered from softer-than-expected Chinese and Australian data released and early Monday, as the Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI fell in June to 51.0 from 51.1 in May as new export sales fell for the third straight month, while the Australian AIG Performance of Manufacturing Index resulted at 57.4 in June from 57.5 in May. Additionally, the TD Securities inflation report foresees inflation will remain flat in June, while yearly basis, is seen retreating from 2.1% to 2.0%. The Reserve Bank of Australia is having its monetary policy meeting this Tuesday, largely expected to maintain rates at record lows. The central bank is also expected to offer a dovish stance, as the latest data suggest that wages´ pressures eased further, which means rates will remain low for longer. A hawkish surprise would come if the central bank re-adds the caveat erased in the previous meeting that stated that is “more likely that the next move in the cash rate would be up, rather than down.” The pair is technically bearish according to intraday readings, as in the 4 hours chart, the price broke below its 20 SMA, which gains downward traction, while technical indicators entered bearish territory, now partially losing their downward strength. A disappointing RBA could see the pair testing the key 0.7250 level.

Support levels: 0.7310 0.7280 0.7250

Resistance levels: 0.7345 0.7380 0.7430

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.