AUD/USD analysis: heading into RBA's decision at yearly lows
AUD/USD Current price: 0.7315
- RBA expected to keep rates on hold for a 23rd consecutive month.
- Softer-than-expected Australian and Chinese data hit the Aussie.
The Australian dollar heads toward the RBA monetary policy meeting trading at its lowest for the year against the greenback, just a few pips above the 0.7300 figure. The Aussie suffered from softer-than-expected Chinese and Australian data released and early Monday, as the Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI fell in June to 51.0 from 51.1 in May as new export sales fell for the third straight month, while the Australian AIG Performance of Manufacturing Index resulted at 57.4 in June from 57.5 in May. Additionally, the TD Securities inflation report foresees inflation will remain flat in June, while yearly basis, is seen retreating from 2.1% to 2.0%. The Reserve Bank of Australia is having its monetary policy meeting this Tuesday, largely expected to maintain rates at record lows. The central bank is also expected to offer a dovish stance, as the latest data suggest that wages´ pressures eased further, which means rates will remain low for longer. A hawkish surprise would come if the central bank re-adds the caveat erased in the previous meeting that stated that is “more likely that the next move in the cash rate would be up, rather than down.” The pair is technically bearish according to intraday readings, as in the 4 hours chart, the price broke below its 20 SMA, which gains downward traction, while technical indicators entered bearish territory, now partially losing their downward strength. A disappointing RBA could see the pair testing the key 0.7250 level.
Support levels: 0.7310 0.7280 0.7250
Resistance levels: 0.7345 0.7380 0.7430
Author
Valeria Bednarik
FXStreet
Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.
