AUD/USD analysis: heading into RBA's decision at yearly lows

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7315

RBA expected to keep rates on hold for a 23rd consecutive month.
Softer-than-expected Australian and Chinese data hit the Aussie.

The Australian dollar heads toward the RBA monetary policy meeting trading at its lowest for the year against the greenback, just a few pips above the 0.7300 figure. The Aussie suffered from softer-than-expected Chinese and Australian data released and early Monday, as the Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI fell in June to 51.0 from 51.1 in May as new export sales fell for the third straight month, while the Australian AIG Performance of Manufacturing Index resulted at 57.4 in June from 57.5 in May. Additionally, the TD Securities inflation report foresees inflation will remain flat in June, while yearly basis, is seen retreating from 2.1% to 2.0%. The Reserve Bank of Australia is having its monetary policy meeting this Tuesday, largely expected to maintain rates at record lows. The central bank is also expected to offer a dovish stance, as the latest data suggest that wages´ pressures eased further, which means rates will remain low for longer. A hawkish surprise would come if the central bank re-adds the caveat erased in the previous meeting that stated that is “more likely that the next move in the cash rate would be up, rather than down.” The pair is technically bearish according to intraday readings, as in the 4 hours chart, the price broke below its 20 SMA, which gains downward traction, while technical indicators entered bearish territory, now partially losing their downward strength. A disappointing RBA could see the pair testing the key 0.7250 level.

Support levels: 0.7310 0.7280 0.7250

Resistance levels: 0.7345 0.7380 0.7430

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

Gold tumbles as blockbuster US NFP lift US Dollar, Treasury yields

Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply on Friday, snapping a two-day recovery after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised strongly to the upside. The metal briefly climbed above $4,500 on Thursday, gaining nearly 2%, but has since erased a large part of that advance.

Crypto’s $638 million buyback boom may not be as bullish as it looks

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols reportedly spent $638 million to buy back their native tokens in August, up 17% from a year earlier. On the surface, the buyback trend suggests the cryptocurrency industry is maturing fast, adopting one of Wall Street’s oldest tools to bolster valuations and distribute revenue. The headline becomes less impressive once the number is opened up.

Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a sudden burst higher after falling back below the 160.00 psychological mark against the US Dollar (USD) earlier this week amid a more hawkish repricing of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.