AUD/USD analysis: Chinese trade balance data to set the tone

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7407

China expected to inform solid imports and exports growth in June.
AUD/USD to recover further only on a steady advance above 0.7440/50 resistance area.

The Aussie bounced alongside with equities and base metals, with the AUD/USD pair finishing the day a couple of pips above the 0.7400 figure. However, the advance in the pair has been quite shallow, similar to gold's one, as the commodity remains below $1,250.00 a troy ounce, a sign that bullish interest is still scarce. China will release multiple macroeconomic data during the upcoming Asian session, including money figures and the June Trade Balance. Imports and exports in dollar terms are expected to have decreased from the previous month, but sill print solid 20.8% and 10% increases respectively. Australia won't release any relevant data this Friday. Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the price settled above a horizontal 100 SMA, but below a bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators recovered some ground within negative levels, but with the RSI losing upward strength, currently flat at 48, limiting chances of a steeper recovery, at least as long as the pair remains below 0.7440/50, the immediate resistance area.

Support levels: 0.7370 0.7340 0.7310

Resistance levels: 0.7445 0.7490 0.7525

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.