The Silver Waltz (Valse) move
Historically the Silver ounce reached $ 50 level three times, this year is the third time, but I believe this time is different than the other two moves, it will be like the ‘’Waltz’’ (Valse) 3-beat preparing for the next big move!
In my previous article, I pointed to gold to silver ratio and its mean reversion trade to reach at least 70 as a ratio and 57$ per silver ounce.
After reaching that level, we can now shift the focus to the other way round.
Silver to gold, it is not a play on word but just to get more insight about the Waltz move that silver can reach.
Technical analysis has no clear answer when price level reaches unchartered territory!
Starting with 1983 monthly observations till now, the probability of Silver/Gold percentage to stay below 1.50% is around 50%!
Silver to gold percentage is currently around 1.50% but since silver started its Waltz already this year, the percentage is expected to head north to reach 2%, 2.5%, and 3% as previously hit.
Based on current gold level at $4,400 per ounce, all time high level, Silver ounce next targets will be: -
Silver to Gold percentage | 2% | 2.5% | 3% |
Expected Silver ounce | 88 | 110 | 132 |
Happy day for Silver.
Author
Hany Saleeb
Independent Analyst
Hany Saleeb is a highly experienced Senior Treasurer. With over a decade of experience in treasury, served as Head of Treasury at BM in France and head of research in Sinai Securities.
