The EURUSD rebounded from 1.0842 yesterday, yet the pair is having hard time gaining a significant upside momentum. The 30-day RSI is still below 30 (at 28.2), suggesting that the market is preparing to step out of the oversold market. A further consolidation, or minor upside correction is on the menu for the euro, before a fresh downside attempt. Intra-day resistances are seen 1.0942 (200-hour moving average), 1.0952 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 26th to Oct 25th decline) and 1.1015 (major 38.2% retrace).
The USDJPY extended gains to 104.86 yesterday, clearing a part of 104.50 / 104.65 offers. Call options at 104.00, and below, are expected to give support to the USDJPY today. Next resistance is eyed at 105.00, max 105.50. Short-term support stands at 103.98 (200-hour moving average), 103.74 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 27th to Oct 25th rise), 103.15 (Oct 19th low) and 103.04 (major 38.2% retracement).
The GBPUSD tanked to 1.2082 before the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Carney’s speech yesterday, and pared half of losses as Carney said that a post-Brexit loose monetary policy ‘isn’t a given’. The pound remains weak however, as traders remain reluctant to open fresh long positions given that downside risks prevail. Surpassing 1.2207 (Fibonacci 50% on Oct 19th to Oct 25th decline) could encourage a recovery to 1.2295 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 28th to Oct 7th crash), before 1.2330 (weekly resistance). Intra-day supports are eyed at 1.2141 (short-term minor 23.6% retracement), before 1.2080 and 1.2000 mark.
The Aussie was the biggest G10 gainer against the US dollar, as a stronger than expected inflation report revived the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawks . The AUDUSD advanced to 0.7709 in Sydney. Stronger trend and momentum indicators hint at a second test of the 0.7730 mid-term resistance, if cleared, could encourage a further attempt to 0.7750, before 0.7790/0.7800. Intra-day supports are eyed at 0.7680 (minor 32.6% retracement on Oct 13th to Oct 20th rise), before 0.7647 (major 38.2% retrace) and 0.7639 (200-hour moving average).
Gold is approaching the critical support at $1280, the 200-day moving average, if cleared, should encourage a further recovery to $1297 (minor 23.6% retrace). The $1255/1250 is expected to give support to the current bullish development.
The WTI slipped below the $50 level in New York and consolidated losses in Asia. We could see a deeper downside correction to $49.00/$48.80, before $48.30. Short-term resistances are eyed at $50.00 (minor 23.6% retracement on Oct 19th to Oct 25th fall) and $50.42 (major 38.2% retrace).
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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