• There are fewer undecideds in 2020, making Biden's lead more solid.
  • Biden is leading by around 9% while Clinton maxed out at 7%, only after the convention.
  • The electoral college – which Trump won while losing the popular vote – is more aligned with the national map. 

Fox News' polls point to a landslide loss for President Donald Trump – if the elections were held in late June. They are held only in November, and that calls for caution – especially when looking to the recent past when Hillary Clinton led Trump around this time in 2016. 

However, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden has several advantages over Clinton. While everything can happen until November – especially with events unfolding at a rapid pace. Biden has yet to make any substantial speech nor meet the press in two months and Trump may deal a blow to "Sleepy Joe" in September's debates.

The president may also tack to the center – something that he has failed to do in recent weeks – by allowing advisers to manage his Twitter feed or encourage wearing masks. He may also appeal to Republicans by touting his achievements on nominating conservative judges.

Nevertheless, with all these caveats and the time remaining in America's endless political campaigning – looking at opinion polls shows Trump is the clear underdog. It is Biden's election to lose.

1) Fewer undecideds

 Americans were unhappy with their choices in 2016, with both candidates "competing" for higher disapproval ratings. Many remained on the fence until the last days of the campaign and then broke toward the Republican candidate. It may have been due to the announcement of reopening an investigation against Clinton by James Comey, the then director of the FBI, or any other reason. 

Some Clinton supporters switched to trump while the opposite move did not materialize. The current president won over most undecideds: 

Source: FiveThirtyEight

There is a smaller pool of undecideds to choose from now. On election day, support for Clinton in opinion polls hit 45.7% in national polls, around the previous peaks. Ita barely scratched 43% in late June. Both leading candidates received only 79% in late June before both managed to add up some of the undecideds, reaching a total of around 86% on election day.

Source: FiveThirtyEight

As of late June 2020, Biden receives 50.6% – an outright majority – while Trump stands at 41.4%. Together they already have 92%, above November 2016 levels. 

Biden backers could switch to Trump or just stay at home, while undecideds could break significantly toward the president. However, the occupant of the White House faces an uphill battle according to current polling. 

2) Biden's lead is bigger

Back in June 2016, Clinton led Trump by around 5.5%. After the successful Democratic convention in Philadelphia and amid several Trump scandals, Clinton led by around 7.5% – the high watermark for the nominee. 

In June 2020, Biden is stabilizing above nine points. Is this the former Vice President's high watermark? Perhaps, yet his low point was a minuscule lead of 3.4% in April, while Clinton temporarily nearly trailed Trump.

The final read on FiveThirtyEight's aggregate stood at Clinton leading 45.7% to 41.8% – up 3.9% and the actual popular vote came out at 48.2% for the former first lady and 46.1% for the current president. The 1.7% was within the margin of error and Clinton's 2.1% lead was insufficient to win the elections due to the Electoral college advantage. 

3) Swing states look more aligned with the national mood

Trump's surprising win came after clinching the trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. That was attributed to the president's appeal to white working-class men disappointed with the hollowing out of manufacturing in these states, yet there are endless essays about the closely fought campaign. 

Back then, te won Michigan by a margin of 0.23%, Pennsylvania by 0.72%, and Wisconsin by 0.77%. According to Sienna College for the New York Times, Trump trails Biden by 10-11 points in these states.

According to polls by Fox News – Trump is set to lose the large state of Florida by 9%. These surveys also show Biden ahead – albeit by minor margins – in North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas.

Source: FiveThirtyEight

Contrary to 2016, Trump does not seem to enjoy a lead in battleground states that can compensate for his trailing on the national stage. 

Repeating the caveats and disclaimers, there is plenty of time and polls can be wrong, especially at the state level. Biden can lose Minnesota and New Hampshire, and perhaps other states. Yet Trump has an uphill battle in Arizona.

Overall, the 2016 map has a smaller likelihood of repeating itself in 2016. 

For markets, a Biden win with the current split in Congress would be acceptable, yet a clean Democratic sweep – allowing prominent left-leaning politicians to change American capitalism – would already be a nightmare. Bernie Sanders, Elisabeth Warren, and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez would benefit from a landslide defeat by Trump. 

See 2020 US Elections: Trump loss, split Congress is what markets want, most likely scenario out of four

Other reasons why Trump is faring worse than in 2016

"Drain the swamp" was one of the Trump's rallying cries toward the end of the campaign. He was the outsider – stating "only I can fix it" – and touting his business pedigree. The New York tycoon is the president in the past 3.5 years and his record – especially in dealing with coronavirus – is under scrutiny. His shine is somewhat lost. 

Another potential factor – yet to be quantified – is the impact of the black vote. African-Americans tend to vote for the Democrats but their turnout dropped when Barrack Obama was not on the ticket. Can the first black president's VP increase voting? That is still an open question. It may depend on the Biden's choice for Vice President – more important than usual given the candidate's old age. 

That is a story for another day. Here are different opinions well worth reading

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD steadies near 1.0550, looks to post modest weekly gains

EUR/USD steadies near 1.0550, looks to post modest weekly gains

EUR/USD has lost its bullish momentum after having climbed above 1.0570 with the initial reaction to the US data in the American session and retreated toward the mid-1.0500s. On a weekly basis, the pair remains on track to close in positive territory. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD struggles to hold above 1.2300

GBP/USD struggles to hold above 1.2300

GBP/USD has edged lower following a jump above 1.2300 in the early American session on Friday. The market mood remains upbeat ahead of the weekend with Wall Street's main indexes posting strong daily gains on upbeat US data. 

GBP/USD News

Gold stays below $1,830 as US yields edge higher

Gold stays below $1,830 as US yields edge higher

Gold continues to fluctuate below $1,830 on Friday and looks to close the second straight week in negative territory. Fueled by the risk-positive market environment, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up more than 1% on the day, limiting XAU/USD's upside.

Gold News

Why Cardano could surprise over the weekend

Why Cardano could surprise over the weekend

ADA  set to close out the week with a gain on the workday trading week and over the weekend? Central banks signaled that the rate hike cycle is ending, meaning less stress and tight conditions for trading, opening up room for some upside potential with Cardano set to pop above $0.55 and test a significant cap.

Read more

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

Tap into our 20 years Forex trading experience and get ahead of the markets. Maximize our actionable content, be part of our community, and chat with our experts. Join FXStreet Premium today!

BECOME PREMIUM

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures