WTI rebounds to $77.50 amid US dollar weakness, geopolitical risks


  • WTI recovers to $77.50 on the weaker of the US Dollar.
  • The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the crude market could be in surplus throughout 2024.
  • The escalating Middle East geopolitical tension might lift WTI prices as it disrupts crude supplies. 
  • Oil traders will monitor the US January Producer Price Index (PPI), due on Friday. 

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $77.50 on Friday. WTI prices edge higher after the weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data raise hope that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon start cutting interest rates in coming months.

On Thursday, the US Retail Sales for January fell 0.8% MoM from a 0.4% rise in the previous reading, below the market consensus 0.1% decline. That being said, lower interest rates have caused oil prices to rise which translates to more demand for oil as activity increases with lower costs. 

Meanwhile, the rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East might boost WTI prices as it disrupts crude supplies Israel launched extensive and lethal airstrikes in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, in response to a deadly missile attack on northern Israel. Israeli leaders have warned that they would take considerably stronger military action in Lebanon if the cross-border violence continues.  

On the other hand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that the crude oil will be in excess in 2024. The IEA stated that global oil consumption would rise by +1.2 million bpd in 2024, almost half the pace seen last year. This, in turn, might cap the upside of WTI prices. 

Oil traders will keep an eye on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for January on Friday. Later in the day, the Fed's Barr and Daly are set to speak. These events could significantly impact the USD-denominated WTI price. Oil traders will take cues from the data and find trading opportunities around WTI prices.

 

WTI US OIL

Overview
Today last price 77.46
Today Daily Change -0.18
Today Daily Change % -0.23
Today daily open 77.64
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 75.58
Daily SMA50 73.71
Daily SMA100 77.02
Daily SMA200 77.41
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 78.05
Previous Daily Low 75.51
Previous Weekly High 77.18
Previous Weekly Low 71.46
Previous Monthly High 79.19
Previous Monthly Low 69.41
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 77.08
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 76.48
Daily Pivot Point S1 76.09
Daily Pivot Point S2 74.53
Daily Pivot Point S3 73.56
Daily Pivot Point R1 78.62
Daily Pivot Point R2 79.6
Daily Pivot Point R3 81.16

 



 

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