WTI Price Analysis: WTI cleared daily gains amid stronger USD


  • The WTI peaked at $76.11 and then settled below $76.00.
  • Jobless Claims came in lower than expected and strengthened the USD.
  • Markets turned cautious amid escalating American and Chinese tensions.

On Thursday, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel failed to maintain its upwards momentum, which took the price to a high of $76.11. A cautious market environment and a strong Dollar are the main ones responsible for limiting the WTI’s upwards potential, while the reports of  Oil American stocks may limit the downside.

 The American Petroleum Institute (API) stated that Crude Oil stocks fell in the week ending July 14. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that Crude Oil Stocks fell by 708,000 barrels which lifted the black gold’s price.

However, the USD recovered amid lower-than-expected Jobless Claims in the week ending on July 14, meaning fewer people filed for unemployment benefits. The figure came in at 228K, lower than the 242K expected and the previous figure of 237K. 

As a reaction, US Treasury yields advanced across the board, meaning that markets are betting on a more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed). The 2-year yield displays nearly 2% gains and stands at 4.88%, while the 5 and 10-year yields rose to 4.10% and 3.84% showing more than 2% increase. As for now, according to the CME FedWatch tool, markets largely discounted a 25 basis point (bps) hike for next week's meeting, but the odds of a hike past July still remain low. Its worth noticing that higher rates are negatively correlated with Oil prices as they cool down economic activity and lower energy demand.

WTI Levels to watch

According to the daily chart, the technical outlook is neutral to bearish for the short term. Bulls are struggling to gain momentum, and the price is capped by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) so further downside may be on the horizon. In addition, indicators are losing strength, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) displaying a negative slope near its midline in positive territory while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints lower green bars. 

Support levels: $73.50 (100-day SMA), $72.53 (20-day SMA), $72.00.
Resistance levels: $76.00, $76.90 (200-day SMA), $78.00.

 

WTI Daily chart

WTI US OIL

Overview
Today last price 75.57
Today Daily Change 0.21
Today Daily Change % 0.28
Today daily open 75.36
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 72.3
Daily SMA50 71.67
Daily SMA100 73.55
Daily SMA200 76.78
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 76.84
Previous Daily Low 75.01
Previous Weekly High 77.17
Previous Weekly Low 72.67
Previous Monthly High 74.36
Previous Monthly Low 66.95
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 75.71
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 76.14
Daily Pivot Point S1 74.64
Daily Pivot Point S2 73.91
Daily Pivot Point S3 72.8
Daily Pivot Point R1 76.47
Daily Pivot Point R2 77.57
Daily Pivot Point R3 78.3

 

 

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