WTI Crude Oil steadies above $64 as traders brace for OPEC+ decision

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil continues to trade in a narrow range on Wednesday, consolidating after a sharp selloff triggered by the Iran–Israel ceasefire, as geopolitical risk premiums unwind and traders reposition ahead of the upcoming Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) meeting. While the initial drop erased much of the conflict-driven gains, prices have since stabilized above the $64 / barrel mark.

Despite the recent subdued price action, WTI is trading with a slightly positive tone during the American trading hours, hovering around $64.50 near the upper boundary of its current range, up nearly 0.90% on the day.

While the market found temporary support near $64, momentum remains subdued following last week’s US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, which revealed a smaller-than-expected draw of 3.5 million barrels in US crude inventories, dampening hopes for tighter supply heading into peak summer demand. Attention now turns to the next EIA release due later on Wednesday, which could offer fresh cues on US stockpile trends, alongside the highly anticipated OPEC+ meeting on July 6 that may determine the near-term direction of Oil prices.

Adding pressure on prices, American Petroleum Institute (API) data released late Tuesday showed a surprise build of 680,000 barrels in US Crude Oil inventories — a period when stockpiles typically decline due to increased summer fuel demand.

Meanwhile, all eyes are on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where the group is expected to announce its output strategy for August. The group is set to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, mirroring the increases agreed upon for May, June, and July. This would bring OPEC+’s total output hike for 2025 to 1.78 million bpd, equivalent to over 1.5% of global oil demand. While comments from key producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have reflected optimism about stronger summer demand, concerns linger over global trade conditions, particularly the uncertainty surrounding potential new US tariffs after the July 9 deadline, which continues to cloud the demand outlook.

On the demand side, supportive economic data from China offered a glimmer of optimism. A private-sector survey showed the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in June, marking a return to expansion territory for the first time since March. The improvement was driven by a pickup in new orders and production, suggesting factory activity is regaining momentum, potentially boosting oil demand from the world’s second-largest crude importer.

However, weaker labor market data from the US tempered optimism. Fresh figures from the ADP Employment Change report released on Wednesday showed that the US private sector unexpectedly lost 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first monthly decline in over a year. This was a big surprise, as markets had expected a gain of around 95,000 jobs.

Looking ahead, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Thursday will be closely watched for confirmation of a broader slowdown in the labor market. Following the weak ADP print, any downside surprise in NFP could further dampen the demand outlook for crude and fuel speculation around a more dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) stance.