WTI bulls still way below the 23.6% fibo of Oct's glut, as OPEC delay output decisions until Friday

  • WTI is currently trading at $51.66bbls, that is up from a low of $50.23bbls and well below the high of the Asia session at $53.49bbls.  
  • The highly anticipated OPEC meeting drew no conclusions and leaves the price of oil at the bottom of the barrel with further downside likely from a technical and fundamental basis. 

Global growth concerns were once again sending markets into a risk-off mode where US futures hit the circuit breakers following revived risks over tensions between China and the US despite the recently agreed cease-fire that has now come under jeopardy. 

The arrest of the chief financial officer of the Chinese telecoms company, Huawei Technologies, by the Canadian authorities, who now faces extradition to the US over possible violations of sanctions against Iran, has encouraged a response from Beijing. China is requesting that both Canada and the US to "rectify wrongdoing". Investors presume the worst and there are fears that not only will this break the conditions for a cease-fire on the trade tariff war, but the implications at stake at this juncture look dire to say the least for global economic growth and geopolitical relations. 

However, traders were also concerned that the meeting between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Thursday concluded without reaching an agreement on production cuts, head of a scheduled meeting on Friday between the cartel and nonmember oil producers on Friday. OPEC is expected to give further details on the size of a production cut on Friday, but there is scepticism in the market that there will not be enough of a production cut, and that leaves a downside bias for oil.

Nonfarm payrolls 

"FX likely to view payrolls with an asymmetric bias; USD has been stable despite aggressive Fed repricing so a payrolls beat should not impact the USD as much as a disappointment," analysts at TD Securities explained. 

  • The US initial jobless claims are expected to reach 224K in the week ending November 30.

WTI levels

WTI's lows were forced back into the descending channel, which resistance has now turned support since the price moved sideways out of it this month on profit-taking. However, bulls were still some way off from getting to where they really need to be, and that is up to challenge the 23.6% Fibo retracement of the recent rout from just below the 77 handle at 56. The 21-D SMA is now lower at 54.49 as first key resistance. The daily & weekly RSI remains above 30 which still gives the bulls a light at the end of the tunnel, depending on Friday's outcome of the OPEC and non-OPEC producers meeting. The spanner in the works stays with the monthly RSI and DMI that remain bearish while the ATR is also tracking a strong trend to the downside also. To the downside, the 123.6% Fibo extension target comes in at the 43.90s while the June 2009 lows are nearby at 41.83. On the wide, the 161.18% Fibo extension target is situated at 33.77, and the Jan 2016 low is down at 26.03.


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD nears 1.1000 amid fears of US-EU trade war, mid-East flare-up

EUR/USD continues easing toward the critical support, a as fears of US tariffs against the EU and the fallout from the attack on Saudi oil installations weighs. Little data scheduled for today will leave sentiment in control.


GBP/USD drops to around 1.2450 ahead of Johnson-Juncker meeting

GBP/USD is trading closer to 1.2450, lower. UK PM Johnson will meet EC Commission President Juncker to discuss Brexit amid reports of progress. Tensions in the Middle-East and uncertainty ahead of the Fed impact markets.


USD/JPY looking to close the bearish opening gap amid risk-off

USD/JPY gapped down to 107.44 on Monday’s open as risk appetite is diminished following the attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities. The spot now trades near 107.80, aiming to close the bearish opening gap ahead of a big week. 


Gold: Once again rebounds from ascending trend-line/23.6% Fibo. confluence support

Gold on Friday ended on a downbeat note and recorded its third consecutive week of declines, albeit once again managed to find decent support near a 3-1/2-month-old ascending trend-line.

Gold News

Top 3 price prediction Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum: Altcoins’ pre-season knocks on doors

As is customary in the Cryptocurrencies market, weekend trading results in significant movements. On this occasion, it is the Altcoin segment – and especially Ethereum –  that opens Monday's session with a considerable gain over Friday's close.

Read more