Breaking: US Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark revision shows 911,000 decrease for March 2025
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday that the preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total Nonfarm employment for March 2025 is -911,000, or -0.6%.
"In accordance with usual practice, the final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2026 with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release," the BLS noted in its press release.
Market reaction to Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark revision
After dropping sharply with the immediate reaction, the US Dollar Index reversed its direction and was last seen rising 0.18% on the day at 97.62.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.32% | 0.08% | -0.28% | 0.15% | -0.11% | 0.05% | 0.31% | |
| EUR | -0.32% | -0.24% | -0.60% | -0.16% | -0.35% | -0.23% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | 0.24% | -0.38% | 0.07% | -0.11% | -0.00% | 0.22% | |
| JPY | 0.28% | 0.60% | 0.38% | 0.41% | 0.21% | 0.33% | 0.58% | |
| CAD | -0.15% | 0.16% | -0.07% | -0.41% | -0.23% | -0.07% | 0.15% | |
| AUD | 0.11% | 0.35% | 0.11% | -0.21% | 0.23% | 0.11% | 0.34% | |
| NZD | -0.05% | 0.23% | 0.00% | -0.33% | 0.07% | -0.11% | 0.25% | |
| CHF | -0.31% | 0.00% | -0.22% | -0.58% | -0.15% | -0.34% | -0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the preliminary benchmark revision to Nonfarm Payrolls.
- The BLS will release the preliminary benchmark revision to employment data on Tuesday.
- Markets widely expect the Fed to lower the policy rate multiple times this year.
- Standard Chartered analysts think the Fed could opt for a 50 bps rate cut next week.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the 2025 preliminary benchmark revision to the Establishment Survey Data on Tuesday, September 9.
The preliminary revision will cover the 12-month period through March 2025 before the final benchmark revision is reported within the employment report of February 2026.
"Official establishment survey estimates are not updated based on this preliminary benchmark revision. The final benchmark revision will be incorporated into official estimates with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release in February 2026," the BLS notes.
When the BLS released the preliminary annual benchmark revisions in August 2024, it noted that the US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024. This translated into an actual job growth of 30% less than initially outlined for this period.
In response, the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) in September 2024, bringing the fed funds rate to 5% from 5.5%.
US labor market cools down
The latest employment report showed that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 22,000 in August. This reading followed the 79,000 increase (revised from 73,000) recorded in July and missed the market expectation of 75,000 by a wide margin. The BLS also noted that it revised down June's NFP by 27,000, from 14,000 to -13,000. This follows a significant negative revision to May NFP growth, from 144,000 to 19,000, reported in July's jobs data.
While speaking at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 22, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that downside risks to the labor market were rising and noted that tighter immigration policy has led to an "abrupt slowdown" in labor force growth.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed lowering the policy rate by at least a total of 75 bps this year, by opting for 25 bps cuts at each of the three remaining meetings, climbed to nearly 75% from about 40% before the release of the jobs data.
Is there room for a jumbo Fed rate cut next week?
In case the preliminary benchmark revision suggests that conditions in the US labor market were even worse than thought, markets could see this as a development that opens the door for a dovish Fed move at the upcoming policy meeting.
Steve Englander, Head of Global G10 FX Research and North America Macro Strategy at Standard Chartered, noted that the Fed could go for a ‘catch-up’ 50 bps rate cut at the September meeting, just as it did this time last year.
"Fed rate-cut pricing, now at 28-29bps for September, has yet to shift firmly in that direction. We recognise that we are moving early, but we expect preliminary revisions to employment data for April 2024 to March 2025 to support our 50bps call," Englander explained.
He added, "We maintain our view that headline payrolls and unemployment data underplay the degree of labour-market softening given distortions from the birth-death adjustment and the more clear-cut decline in the employment-population ratio."
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
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