USD soft but steady after payrolls – Scotiabank

The USD slumped in response to the weak US NFP data Friday and it retains a soft undertone today. The 22k gain in August jobs was well below expectations and downward revisions to the prior data left the 3 month average job gain at 29k. That is below the base of the broad, estimated breakeven range of job growth needed to keep the unemployment rate from rising. Moreover, June data was revised to –13k, the first negative print since December 2020, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

USD retains a soft undertone but may steady ahead of FOMC next week

"The weak August data make a 25bps cut at the September 17th FOMC a lock. But revisions and the negative June print raises legitimate concerns that the Fed erred in not easing earlier and may be inclined to make a bolder more at its upcoming policy decision. Swaps are pricing in 28bps of easing risk for the 17th and 70bps of easing through December now. The dollar teetered Friday, with the EUR pushing briefly through major consolidation resistance in the low 1.17s and the DXY reaching its lowest since late July. But the sell-off failed to extend significantly."

"While the USD looks soft this morning markets may maintain a holding pattern ahead of the Fed and political risks elsewhere may be deflecting pressure on the USD to some extent. The JPY is underperforming (but well of its earlier low) following PM Ishiba’s decision to step down due to the LDP’s recent election setbacks. French PM Bayrou faces a confidence vote in parliament later today. A major cabinet reshuffle Friday by UK PM Starmer comes amid the evolving challenge of Farage’s Reform party. The EUR and GBP are little changed this morning after rebounding from early lows. Note that gold continues to rally."

"There are no data releases from the US or Canada today. US CPI and PPI data are due in the next few days but may have little impact on markets. While the DXY drop failed to extend significantly last Friday, the charts reflect a clear preference to fade gains in the index above the 98 level over the past month and a strengthening in bear trend strength readings on the intraday and daily DMI studies. These readings remain relatively low but are aligning with still bearish weekly DMI signals. Technical risks for the DXY remain tilted to the downside. Look for resistance in the 97.75/00 region in the short run. Key support remains 96.30/35."